Flooding possible as tropical disturbance meanders into the Gulf of Mexico

A tropical disturbance off Florida's Atlantic coast will wander into the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days, bringing widespread heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.

While there's a small chance that the system could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, localized flooding from heavy rainfall is possible regardless of the disturbance's ultimate status. 

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center give it a 30 percent chance of developing into either a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico toward the second half of the week.

It's not the worst looking tropical disturbance I've ever seen, I'll give it that much. There's plenty of thunderstorm activity and it has "that look" about it if you squint a bit. 

But it's a hazard to the northern Gulf Coast regardless of its development. Disturbance, depression, or storm—it's still going to bring plenty of rain to the region this week.

The Weather Prediction Center expects several inches of rain to fall from the Florida Peninsula west toward southern Louisiana. A setup like this can easily produce 5+ inches of rain in spots, especially if training thunderstorms set up shop.

Flash flooding kills more people in the U.S. than any other storm-related threat.

Please make sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Never try to drive across a flooded roadway. It takes a surprisingly small amount of water (a foot or less!) to make a vehicle float, requiring quick escape or emergency rescue.

We've seen three tropical storms across the Atlantic basin so far this year. The next name on the list is Dexter, a brand new entry after Dorian's retirement back in 2019.

Given relatively warm waters and generally favorable atmospheric conditions, last week's updated outlook from Colorado State University continues to call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season ahead. 

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