Dangerous winter storm's blackouts will coincide with life-threatening cold

Widespread heavy snow and prolific amounts of freezing rain are all but certain heading into this weekend.

This will be a dangerous and potentially life-threatening winter storm from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. 

Many of the communities expecting all snow may measure accumulation in feet instead of inches. This will make travel impossible for a time during and after the storm. Plows in the hardest-hit areas may not reach side streets and neighborhoods for several days after the storm. Expect school closures through much of next week.

It's the ice storm potential that makes this event exceptionally hazardous.

Ice accretion of just 0.25" is enough to damage trees and power lines. Strain from the weight of solid ice only grows from there, and we get into "crippling ice storm" territory once accretions reach 0.50" or greater.

Widespread ice accretions of 0.50", and possibly up to 1.00", are possible from northern Texas to North Carolina in areas that remain predominantly freezing rain throughout this event.

The resulting jacket of ice on exposed surfaces will make simply getting into vehicles next to impossible.

Countless trees and tree limbs will succumb to the heavy coating, snapping and falling to the ground in a seemingly endless chorus of eerie booms.

Falling trees will knock down power lines. The lines themselves, as well as the wooden poles on which they're strung, may simply snap under the weight of the ice.

Power outages will be extensive, potentially numbering in the millions, and they will be long-lasting. Similar ice storms have left communities without electricity for a week or longer. The sheer scope of this ice storm will stretch power companies thin, potentially making restoration times take even longer.

And then we get to the frigid temperatures expected during and after the storm.

Temperatures across many of the areas expecting heavy snow and ice will stay around or below freezing through early next week. The combination of protracted blackouts and extremely cold temperatures will subject vulnerable people to hypothermia and frostbite. The risk for carbon monoxide poisoning from improper use of things like grills, generators, and heaters is extremely high in a situation like this.

If you're in an area that may see freezing rain, make sure you're prepared for power outages that will hinder your ability to prepare food, keeping in mind that restaurants and grocery stores will likely close without electricity. Wash your blankets and heavy clothes so they're ready for use if you lose heating. Have actual, physical flashlights and battery replacements on hand so you don't drain your cell phone battery trying to see in the dark.

---

Follow me on Facebook | Bluesky | Instagram

Get in touch! Send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
  

North Carolina, Virginia snow droughts may soon come to an end

The significant snow drought we've seen across the Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina in recent years may meet its match in the winter storm that's brewing for this weekend.

While it's still too soon to call out exact precipitation types and amounts, the pattern as of now appears favorable for someone somewhere in the region to experience a memorable snowstorm.

Where might a high-end storm rank in recent history, and in the record books? For starters, it's been a long while since many areas have seen a solid thump of snow. 

Cities from Philadelphia to Charlotte have seen below-average snowfall totals more often than not over the past decade.

Greensboro, North Carolina, hasn't seen more than 4 inches of snow in one storm since December 2018.

Richmond, Virginia, hasn't seen more than 6 inches of snow since the same 2018 storm.

Washington, D.C., experienced a few decent snows last winter, making for its first above-average season in six years. But the capital city hasn't seen 8 inches or more in one storm since January 2019, and it's been more than 14 years since the last time a foot of snow fell on Washington-National Airport.

All-time totals are a generational affair. You'll notice some of the dates on the above chart if you're a hardcore weather geek. The blizzard of January 1996 features prominently, as does the infamous blizzard of 2016. March 1927 is arguably North Carolina's largest-ever snowstorm.

We'll know more by tomorrow and Thursday if this is shaping up to be more than just a disruptive event.

---

Follow me on Facebook | Bluesky | Instagram

Get in touch! Send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
  

Robust winter storm possible across southern, eastern U.S. this weekend

Forecasters are increasingly confident that a robust and potentially high-impact winter storm will spread across much of the southern and Mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week and into this weekend.

While it's still too soon for specifics like exact precipitation types and amounts, all the lights on the dashboard are starting to blink about this storm's disruptive potential.

Key Points

CONFIDENCE RISING: A widespread winter storm is likely by the end of the week into this weekend.

FRIGID AIR: Plenty of frigid air will spill over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. soon.

PRECIPITATION: The whole spectrum of wintry precipitation is on the table.

AMOUNTS/TYPES UNCERTAIN: It's still too soon for specifics.

PREPARATION IS KEY: Don't wait until the last minute to prepare for power outages or hunkering down at home for at least a couple of days. You know how we are in the south...just the mention of snow in the forecast is enough to pack Walmart to the rafters.

The Setup

A lobe of the polar vortex will swoop south toward the Great Lakes by the end of the week, dragging bitterly cold Arctic air south with it. How cold are we talking? Saturday's daytime highs throughout the Upper Midwest are currently forecast remain below zero.

This surge of frigid conditions will spill deep into the United States and kickstart a sustained period of below-seasonal temperatures east of the Rockies. We're likely going to remember this bout of cold weather as the coldest of the season, and it's probably going to last through the end of the month for many folks.

Cold air? Check.

Next is the precipitation. This sharp cold front will slice into warm air blowing over the southern United States and stall out as it reaches the region.

Southerly flow won't stop just because the front arrived. Cold, dense air hugs the ground. Warm and humid winds from the south will flow up and over the cold air at the surface.

This is called overrunning, and it's the mechanism through which we'll see widespread precipitation develop from Texas to North Carolina beginning Friday in the west and continuing east into the weekend.

We'll eventually see a low-pressure system develop along that stalled front, which will likely enhance precipitation in portions of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic before it moves out to sea.

Precipitation? Check.

Next up is the million-dollar question.

Warm air rising over cold air at the surface is a recipe for a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain ol' rain.

This will be the perfect setup for all four types of precipitation. Some communities are going to get a memorable snowstorm. Others will see a highly disruptive ice storm.

The problem right now is that it's just too soon to say exactly where those dividing lines will set up. Tiny changes in temperature can have a huge impact on what kind of precipitation reaches the surface. A slight shift in the timing of the front, the scope of the cold air, or the track of the eventual low-pressure system will all affect how much of what type of precipitation each town will see.

Stay up-to-date on your local forecast from trusted sources. Don't rely on the simple weather app on your phone or computer. A few numbers and icons won't tell you the whole story in a complicated setup like the one in the works.

Prepare for Disruptions

It's a good idea to start preparing now for potential travel and power disruptions just in case this plays out as the models currently suggest.

• Ensure you have flashlights, actual flashlights!, and batteries enough to power them for several days of frequent use.

• Keep a stock of non-perishable food on hand that doesn't require cooking. PB&J sandwiches, canned ravioli, packets of chicken and tuna, crackers, cereal or protein bars, goodies like that.

• Snow shovels, snow brushes, and ice scrapers are a must. We don't want to see a quarter-sized peephole on the windshield. You can't drive around with mound of snow on the roof big enough to sink the Titanic.

• Listen to trusted sources. Don't run with every outlandish weather model image you see on Facebook or TikTok. People are going to try to scare you and get you going. It's called "engagement bait" and it's how they make money off fooling you. Keep tabs on your local National Weather Service office. Seek out a trustworthy meteorologist from the local news.

• Prepare for changes in the forecast. Have some mercy on forecasters as they get a handle on the complex dynamics at play. Again, tiny changes over short distances can dramatically affect the forecast. Forecasts get better as we get closer to the storm, so don't be surprised if there are big shifts here and there.

---

Follow me on Facebook | Bluesky | Instagram

Get in touch! Send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
  

Deadly tornadoes, less hail: 2025 in severe weather across the U.S.

2025 was a rough year for severe thunderstorms for a large swath of the central United States, especially in and around the mid-Mississippi River Valley. The region endured several significant severe weather outbreaks during the spring months.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a risk for severe weather on 268 different days last year.

Most days saw low-grade severe weather risks, with a marginal or slight risk for severe weather in the forecast. There were 11 days where conditions warranted a moderate risk for severe weather, which is a 4 out of 5 on the agency's categorical scale measuring the threat for dangerous thunderstorms. 

Two days, March 15 and April 2, saw a relatively rare high risk. These were the 66th and 67th high risk days since 2000.

Tornadoes

National Weather Service meteorologists confirmed more than 1,200 tornadoes across the country during the year. Experts will work to pin down the exact total, and the Storm Prediction Center will likely release the official tally in a few months. 

Based on storm damage surveys, there were about 1,246 confirmed twisters from coast to coast. The precise number may vary by a few dozen, as some tornadoes are double-counted when they cross the boundaries between NWS offices. This total, if it holds, would be almost exactly the ten-year average between 2015 and 2024.

Nearly 40 percent of the tornadoes confirmed in 2025 were rated either EF-0 or EF-Unknown. 37 tornadoes caused significant EF-3 damage, while 7 produced catastrophic EF-4 damage.

One June twister west of Fargo, North Dakota, received a scale-topping EF-5 rating. This was the world's first confirmed EF-5 tornado since May 2013.

There were 68 reported tornado-related fatalities across the U.S. in 2025. 

Damaging Winds and Hail

Tornadoes get top billing, but damaging wind gusts and large hail are responsible for the vast majority of damage caused by severe thunderstorms every year.

Preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center showed 17,096 reports of wind damage across the country throughout 2025, which is just slightly below the ten-year average. 463 of those reports were measured wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The strong direct measurement was a 111 mph gust at Texas' Midland Airport on April 23.

While 2024 was a bonkers year for hail across both the U.S. and Canada, 2025 appears to have fallen far short of the usual pace. Preliminary data only showed 5,430 reports of large hail (1.0" in diameter or larger) last year. 808 of those reports were for significant hailstones of 2.0" in diameter or larger. The largest diameter reported was an apparent 6" hailstone that fell near Afton, Texas, on May 25.

---

Follow me on Facebook | Bluesky | Instagram

Get in touch! Send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.