SPC launches new 'conditional intensity outlooks' for severe thunderstorms

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have a new tool in their belt to communicate the potential intensity of severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Beginning this month, the agency began issuing conditional intensity outlooks in their forecasts.

The colorful categorical outlooks we've grown familiar with won't change. The SPC will continue issuing outlooks on a five-category scale: marginal (1), slight (2), enhanced (3), moderate (4), and high (5).

Some changes under the hood will better reflect the threat posed by storms on any given day.

The SPC arrives at those categorical outlooks by assigning probabilities to the risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Each category is based on the greatest probability for severe weather in a particular area. 

For instance, if there's a 30% probability for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail, the greater threat (winds) would warrant a slight (2) risk for severe weather.

Meteorologists with the SPC can also indicate when there's a risk for significant severe weather, which includes strong, long-lived tornadoes, wind gusts of 75+ mph, or hail larger than golf balls. The potential for significant severe weather was indicated by hatching on the probability maps.

Conditional intensity outlooks replace the hatching on those probability maps. Instead of one-size-fits-all, the "significant" label is now broken down into three conditional intensity groups (CIG). 

You can see the breakdown in the chart above. The higher the CIG, the greater the potential for significant and potentially destructive severe weather.

CIG 1 days will be relatively common. CIG 2 days will be uncommon. The issuance of CIG 3, much like a high (5) risk, is reserved for days expected to produce a major tornado outbreak or a derecho.

Here's what the new conditional intensity outlooks look like in practice on an SPC forecast map using the infamous outbreak of April 27, 2011, as an example. The greatest threat, CIG 3, corresponds to where some of the day's strongest tornadoes touched down in Mississippi and Alabama.

This change will help meteorologists better communicate the risk for severe weather in your community. Alerting folks ahead of the potential for powerful tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, or very large hail can help them better prepare for severe weather--and take watches and warnings more seriously.

You can watch a 40-minute presentation from the SPC explaining these changes more in depth.

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Melissa becomes the 100th retired Atlantic storm name

Experts with the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization announced this week that "Melissa" is officially retired as an Atlantic hurricane name. This is the 100th name to face retirement since the practice began in 1953.

Hurricane Melissa grew into one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever observed as it swirled south of Jamaica in late-October 2025, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph just before devastating parts of the island nation.

This intensity ties with 1980's Hurricane Allen as the strongest maximum sustained winds ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. 

Melissa killed several dozen people and caused more than $2 billion in damages throughout the Caribbean, with most of the damage focused in western Jamaica where the eye came ashore near peak intensity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is responsible for standardizing official tropical cyclone names across the world's ocean basins. An annual meeting at the beginning of the year fields name retirement requests from nations that saw widespread casualties or damage from a storm. 

Melissa is the 100th storm name to face retirement since the practice of regularly naming storms began back in 1953. 

The modern naming system for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific began in 1979. Each basin has six lists each consisting of 21 names. One list is used every six years, so the names on deck for 2026 were last used in 2020.

Melissa will be replaced by Molly when last year's list is reused in 2031.

Out of the original pool of 126 storm names drafted back in 1979, 54 have been retired and 72 remain in use today. 

'I' is the letter with the most name retirements at 13. This is mostly due to the fact that most 'I' storms develop near the peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable for strong hurricanes. The only letter in use without any retirements is 'V'. 

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA/CIRA]

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5+ inches of rain expected as new pattern settles in this week

A soggy and springlike pattern will develop across the eastern half of the country this week. Soaking rains are likely from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, while record-setting temperatures are in the forecast across the southeast.

This week will see a ridge of high pressure build over the southeastern United States, which will help turn up the heat from Florida to the eastern Great Lakes. We'll see widespread highs in the 70s to lower 80s by Friday and into this upcoming weekend.

More than 200 record highs and record warm-lows are expected to tie or fall by next weekend as the warmth and humidity settle in for a lengthy stay.

This ridge will help to establish an active storm track through the center of the country, stretching from southern Texas through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecasters expect persistent waves of showers and thunderstorms to ride along the boundaries that will set up over the region. Many of the affected areas will see several inches of rain through the end of the weekend. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas may see 4-5+ inches of rain from this event.

While a flooding potential will exist where too much heavy rain falls all at once, this is overall some pretty good news for areas that have seen growing drought over the past few months.

Much of the attention recently has focused on the worsening drought over Florida, but the southern Plains are feeling it hard as well.

Check out these paltry rainfall totals for meteorological winter, stretching from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28. 

Dallas, Tulsa, and San Antonio only picked up 25-30 percent of their normal winter rains this past season. 

This upcoming round of precipitation will help to put a dent in these deficits, kicking off the spring season on a strong note.

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