Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Across The Deep South On Wednesday

A "regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms" is likely across the Deep South on Wednesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. A large swath of the region is under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms, including Memphis, Jackson, Mobile, Baton Rouge, and Tuscaloosa. The greatest threats are widespread significant wind gusts of 75+ mph and the potential for strong, long-lived tornadoes.

This could be a high-impact severe weather event for the area. We're looking at a classic springtime severe weather setup. A low-pressure system heading toward the Great Lakes will allow warm, unstable air to soar north from the Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms will bubble along and ahead of the low's trailing cold front, sparking several opportunities for dangerous storms across the region.

The Storm Prediction Center included a large area under a moderate risk for severe weather, which is the second-highest category on the agency's scale measuring the threat for severe storms.

This moderate risk is in effect due to the potential for widespread significant wind gusts of 75+ mph and an environment capable of supporting strong, long-lived tornadoes. The risk for destructive wind gusts and significant tornadoes extends into the enhanced risk area, which includes an even larger portion of the Deep South.

A powerful line of severe thunderstorms will develop over the southern Plains late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The storms will continue into Arkansas and Louisiana through Wednesday morning, heading toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday afternoon.

We'll have two distinct severe weather threats on Wednesday afternoon and evening: individual thunderstorms ahead of the line that could grow into tornadic supercells, and the line itself along the cold front. These storms will push into Alabama on Wednesday evening and continue east through the nighttime hours.

Widespread severe weather is dangerous, but the timing and speed of the storms will heighten the risk to folks in the region. Some storms will occur after dark. Many of the storms will be moving at highway speeds.

Please make sure you have a way to get severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Check your phone to ensure that emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings. When a warning is issued, take action—don't wait to see danger before you seek shelter.

Powerful straight-line wind gusts can cause as much damage as a tornado. Take stock of any trees or tree limbs that could fall on your home and avoid those rooms when thunderstorms are imminent. Also, make sure you have the supplies necessary to deal with a period without electricity. This is the kind of setup that could lead to widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages.

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

My new book, The Skies Above, comes out on Friday, April 1st! Grab your copy today and learn about the wonders of our atmosphere and beyond.
 

Severe Storm Threat Covers Towns From Texas To New Jersey This Week

Here we go again. A widespread threat for severe weather will march across the southern half of the United States over the next couple of days, bringing the risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail to communities from Texas to New Jersey. Given the similarities between this week's storm and last week's storm, the severe weather threat will fall over many of the same areas that saw rough thunderstorms last week.

The Setup

A low-pressure system will begin to develop over eastern Colorado early in the day on Tuesday. The low's development will set the stage for a classic severe weather setup for the southern and central Plains.

Warm, humid air flowing north from the Gulf will provide ample fuel for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the system's cold front. Strong wind shear across the region will allow the thunderstorms to organize into squall lines and supercells.

The threat for severe weather will follow the low-pressure system east through the end of the week—the storms will target the Plains on Tuesday, the southeast on Wednesday, and the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday.

Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a slight risk for severe weather across a wide swath of the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. This risk doesn't look quite as...robust...as last week's setup, which saw some tornadoes and damaging bursts of hail rip across parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

Nevertheless, all modes of severe weather are possible. Adding to the danger is the fact that many of the storms will unfold during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night when folks are tuned out from the weather or they're sleeping. Please have a way to receive severe weather warnings that can catch your attention at night or wake you up when you're sleeping.

Wednesday

The threat for storms will shift into the Deep South by Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk—a three on the five-category scale measuring the threat for severe weather—covering parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

The agency's latest forecast discussion points out that the overnight line of storms from the Plains will continue into the Deep South on Wednesday, bringing the potential for "potentially significant" wind gusts of 75+ mph, along with a threat for tornadoes and large hail.

Thursday

Thursday's threat will move into the Mid-Atlantic states as the low-pressure system lifts into Canada and the cold front makes its way toward the coast. Thursday is too far out for the SPC to issue risk categories, but they have a 15% risk for severe weather painted from central North Carolina north into the Philadelphia metro area, including Greensboro, Washington, Baltimore, and Philly proper.

If you're in these areas, make sure you closely follow the forecast over the next couple of days and prepare for the potential for severe thunderstorms to close out the month.

[Top Image: NOAA/WPC]

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

My new book, The Skies Above, comes out on Friday, April 1st! Grab your copy today and learn about the wonders of our atmosphere and beyond.
 

Dangerous Severe Storms Continue Rolling Across Southeast U.S. This Week

A multi-day severe weather outbreak unfolding across the southern United States will approach the Deep South on Tuesday with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong or long-lived. The greatest threat will cover portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama

This is a classic severe weather setup for the southern half of the country. A low-pressure system developed over the southern Plains on Monday. Warm, humid air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico fueled the development of strong thunderstorms over Texas and Oklahoma. Plenty of vertical wind shear allowed the storms to grow into supercells, some of which produced damaging tornadoes in central and eastern Texas. 

We'll see a similar setup unfold farther east with the heat of the day on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk—a four out of five on the scale measuring the threat for severe weather—for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including Baton Rouge and Jackson. The moderate risk is in place due to the threat for tornadoes.

Here's the SPC's tornado probability outlook:

Those probabilities seem low—10 percent!—but that's the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within the shaded area. Considering that the climatological odds of seeing a tornado in this part of the country on any given March 22nd is between 0.20% and 0.40%, a 10% risk should warrant everyone's undivided attention.

The black hatching on the map indicates the risk for strong, long-lived tornadoes. This threat extends farther out than the moderate risk, covering most of Louisiana, two-thirds of Mississippi, and extending into the Mobile and Tuscaloosa areas in western Alabama.

Forecasters reserve moderate risks for days when they're confident that widespread severe weather is possible. We've already seen numerous damaging tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma from this system. All indications point to a potential repeat on Tuesday.

The threat for severe weather will shift into the southeast by Wednesday, where the setup will begin to transition from a supercell/tornado threat to a squall line/damaging wind threat. We could see a few tornadoes across the Carolinas and Georgia on Wednesday, but the predominant threat will be damaging straight-line winds (which can cause just as much, if not more, damage as a tornado!).

Whether you're under the threat for severe weather or not, take a moment to look at your phone and make sure emergency alerts for tornado warnings are activated on your smartphone. This feature, while annoying, is a proven lifesaver and could be the only thing standing between you and severe injury or death if the unthinkable happens.

In addition to your smartphone, it's a great idea to have multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts. Weather radios are great. Even leaving the television on a local news station overnight is good so that you might catch a glimpse of live coverage or hear the beeps when a warning is issued.

Always trust the warnings and get ready to act as soon as you hear the alert. And please, please, do not rely on tornado sirens for warnings. They're unreliable relics that aren't designed to be heard indoors.

[Satellite: NOAA]

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
 

Dangerous Overnight Storms Likely On The Northern Gulf Coast Into Friday Morning

A potent low-pressure system trekking across the southern United States will spawn a risk for severe weather across much of the southeast over the next couple of days. The greatest threat will target parts of the northern Gulf Coast overnight Thursday into Friday morning, where we could see a couple of strong tornadoes develop.

All the ingredients are in place for widespread severe thunderstorms over the next 24-36 hours across the southeastern states. We've already seen a couple of hail-happy supercells in central Oklahoma this evening. The system responsible for those storms will continue moving east, setting the stage for more severe weather continuing overnight into the day on Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk—a three out of five on the severe weather risk scale—from southeastern Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle, covering New Orleans, Biloxi, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola. These risk maps are split between two different days because the SPC's forecasts reset at 7:00 a.m. CDT each day.

While the risk for damaging winds and large hail is an ever-present threat with any springtime severe thunderstorm in the south, there's enough wind shear present over the northern Gulf Coast to bring the region an enhanced risk for tornadoes.

The SPC's outlooks note that there's a 10% risk for strong, long-lived tornadoes that justifies the enhanced risk. 10% doesn't sound like much, but consider the average odds of a tornado within 25 miles of the northern Gulf Coast on March 18th is about 0.20%.

This is especially dangerous because much of the severe weather will unfold overnight and during the early morning hours, when people are sleeping or otherwise tuned out from severe weather coverage.

Nighttime severe weather is a scary way of life in the south. If you live in this area (or if you know someone who does), please make sure emergency alerts for tornado warnings are activated on your smartphone. This feature, while annoying, is a proven lifesaver and could be the only thing standing between you and severe injury or death if the unthinkable happens.

In addition to your smartphone, it's a great idea to have multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts. Weather radios are great. Even leaving the television on a local news station overnight is good so that you might catch a glimpse of live coverage or hear the beeps when a warning is issued.

Always trust the warnings and get ready to act as soon as you hear the alert. And please, please, do not rely on tornado sirens for warnings. They're unreliable relics that aren't designed to be heard indoors.

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
 

Permanent Daylight Saving Time Would Be An Ugly Case Of 'Be Careful What You Wish For'

The U.S. Senate passed the Sunshine Protection Act on Tuesday, which aims to make Daylight Saving Time permanent across the country. If the bill passes the House and President Joe Biden signs it into law, we'll ditch switching the clocks beginning next year and remain on "spring forward" year-round.

Proponents of the time change are over the moon about the (seemingly surprise) passage of this bill, arguing that the 'extra' hour of daylight at the end of the day is some much-needed relief. On the flip side, permanently switching us over to Daylight Saving Time has strong potential to be a crash course in "be careful what you wish for." 

We already did it once—and people hated it!

Arguments over changing the clocks are older than many of the people arguing over the time changes.

Congress already tried switching us over to permanent DST back in the 1970s. President Richard Nixon signed a bill on December 15, 1973, that froze the clocks in their "spring forward" position.

The experiment didn't even last a year.

The time change was so universally hated that Congress passed another bill reinstating the twice-yearly clock changes not long after Nixon resigned. President Gerald Ford quickly signed the bill, restoring the biannual time-shift tradition in October 1974.

Our problem is with seasons, not the clocks

The end goal of pushing for permanent Daylight Saving Time seems to be less about salvaging the end of the day as it is about voicing our displeasure with Earth's axial tilt.

The crux of the problem is that it sucks that there's less daylight in the winter than in the summer. There's nothing we can do about that. If we glue our clocks an hour forward all year round, we're just robbing ourselves of an hour of daylight in the morning to pay for it. 

All the complaints about "it's dark at 4:30 p.m.!" will shift to "it's dark at 8:30 a.m.!" come wintertime. The miserable experience of driving home in the dark and taking out the trash in the dark will shift to a series of dark, miserable events to begin the day instead. 

"What about the children!"

The most commonly cited issue with permanent DST is that kids will have to wait for the bus in the dark in the morning. "But kids already do that!", proponents will argue. Sure! I spent about half the year every year in high school waiting for the bus in the dark on the side of a busy road with few lights.

Many school districts stagger their start times: the older kids go to high school first, then middle school, then elementary school. This schedule allows the older kids to navigate the darkness while younger kids get the relative safety of the early morning light.

Permanent DST would force almost all students, regardless of age, to wait or walk in the dark. That's...not ideal! If you thought changing the laws around changing our clocks was a tough sell, try convincing a school board to adjust school start times.

Dangerous winter weather could be more impactful in permanent DST

The weather is the weather. Daylight is daylight. We can't change that. But we can change how hazardous weather affects our daily lives, and switching to the spring-forward position year-round will have a significant impact on how we handle dangerous conditions.

Think about the morning commute. There are plenty of mornings where there's black ice on the roads that quickly melts beneath the bright morning sunshine and heavy traffic.

Extending morning's darkness by an extra hour will make the morning commute even more treacherous on those icy winter mornings. We're pouring more commuters and pedestrians onto icy roads and sidewalks, but they'll all have to navigate those tricky conditions in the dark now. 

Two-hour delays will become three-hour delays. Schools and workplaces could wind up closing their doors more often—maybe not so much an issue nowadays that we can work and learn from home, but still disruptive nonetheless.

Shifting darkness deeper into the midwinter morning commute will create even more issues than a dark drive home in the evening.

- - -

Permanently switching over to Daylight Saving Time is one of those feel-good policies that will create as many problems as it purportedly solves. We can't legislate the seasons or the sunshine. If this bill becomes law, I'm willing to bet most folks are going to wish it hadn't after their first winter without standard time.

[Top image via Unsplash]

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
 

Classic Early-Spring Storm Set To Spread Snow From Arizona To Maine

A classic early-spring winter storm will spread across the United States into the weekend, bringing widespread accumulating snow from northern Arizona all the way to the northern woods of Maine. The sprawling storm will really get its act together as it rolls up the East Coast, bringing double-digit snowfall totals to New England this weekend.

March is a cruel transition month. It's warm and sunny one day, cold and snowing the next. It's like that every year, and somehow it manages to catch us off guard every year. This pattern is no different—many places have enjoyed temperate temperatures in recent days, and that'll all be a distant memory by this weekend after the swipe of one powerful cold front.

A trough swooping over the center of the country will allow for light snow to fall over the southern Plains and Mid-South through the day on Friday. A couple of inches of snow is possible from Oklahoma and north Texas eastward to northern Alabama. Widespread winter weather advisories are in effect ahead of the (unwelcome) burst of winter.

Things will get interesting once the trough approaches the Appalachians. A low-pressure system will develop over the southeast on Friday evening, rapidly strengthening as it races up the Atlantic seaboard. For some perspective on how fast it's moving: the center of the low will be over central North Carolina on Friday evening and over central New Brunswick on Saturday evening.

The swift intensification will allow for ripping snowfall rates over the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England. The latest snowfall forecast from the National Weather Service calls for half a foot of snow from the Blue Ridge to northern Maine, with more than a foot of snow likely near the Canadian border from Lake Ontario to Caribou.

As usual with sprawling springtime storms, warmer air on the southern end of the system will allow for organized severe thunderstorms to develop. We'll see a risk for severe storms across parts of the southeast on Friday and Saturday.

The most concerning severe weather day will be Friday, where storms are possible from Baton Rouge to Orlando. The greatest threat appears centered on northern Florida and southern Georgia. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and some instances of large hail are all possible. The tornado threat is maximized in and around the enhanced risk (orange) area, including Tallahassee.

The risk for severe thunderstorms will follow the cold front east on Saturday, bringing the risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes to the coast from Florida to southeastern Virginia. 

It's going to get cold behind that cold front. Cold. 

Chilly temperatures will descend on the United States by Sunday morning, covering just about everyone from Los Angeles to Orlando and every inch of land north of there. Temperatures in the low- to mid-20s are possible down to the northern Gulf Coast, teens well into northern Alabama and the Carolinas, with single-digit temperatures likely around the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will quickly rebound for most folks by the middle of next week as a ridge builds across much of the country.

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.