DAMWeather

May 4, 2026

Beneficial rain on the way this week for drought-stricken parts of the south

A slow-moving boundary expected to slump from the Midwest to the Southeast through the end of this week will bring some beneficial rain to areas that desperate need any precipitation they can get.

We started May with an upper-level trough parked over the Great Lakes, which was responsible for the spell of below-average temperatures we've seen across much of the eastern U.S. in recent days.

The trough will reload (so to speak) over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Several areas of low pressure will develop along the boundary between these two features, giving rise to widespread rainfall and a risk for severe thunderstorms at times.

Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center expect a couple of inches of rain across a wide swath of the Southeast through the end of the week, with more than 3 inches of rain possible through portions of southern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia.

This is great news for a region that's been socked in a worsening drought for months now. Last week's update of the United States Drought Monitor showed 94.85% of the Southeast in a severe drought or worse.

It's worth noting that there's a decent chance for notable precipitation (both rain and snow) for much of Colorado, where extreme drought conditions are developing hand-in-hand with a record-low snowpack across the state.

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April 25, 2026

440+ tornadoes reported so far in 2026

Dennis Mersereau 4/25/2026 10:34:00 AM tornadoes Leave a Reply

The twister that struck near Enid, Oklahoma, this past Thursday received a (preliminary) EF-4 rating from the National Weather Service. This was the strongest tornado confirmed so far in 2026.

Tornado activity across the United States is running slightly ahead of pace for this point in the year, which is unusual given that most of the activity has avoided parts of the southeast where you'd expect bad storms to lurk in March and April.

Between January 1 and April 24, we've seen around 448 confirmed tornadoes from California to Vermont.

I say "around" 448 because that might be a slight overcount due to the way the NWS reports tornadoes. Paths that cross from one office's area of responsibility to another are sometimes (temporarily) counted as two tornadoes in these damage surveys.

Those tornadoes include...

EF-5: 0
EF-4: 1
EF-3: 6
EF-2: 37
EF-1: 225
EF-0: 153
EF-Unknown: 26

Here's a closer look at the bulk of those tornado tracks:

It's very unusual to see so many tornado tracks across the Midwest this early in the season; activity usually waits until the summer months to start lifting north. This is largely due to the prominent ridging we've seen over the southeastern states during the past couple of months, which is responsible for shunting the active storm track farther north.

We're likely going to see these numbers tick up over the next couple of days as our active pattern produces several additional rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest states.

The U.S. usually experiences a peak in tornado activity around the beginning of June.

April 21, 2026

Eastern drought continues getting worse as rains drench the Great Lakes

Dennis Mersereau 4/21/2026 01:39:00 PM drought extreme rainfall Leave a Reply

A dramatic split-screen has developed in recent weeks as relentless rains over the Great Lakes and Midwest stand in stark contrast to the worsening drought over the southeastern states.

Persistent ridges of high pressure over the southeast have kept conditions hotter and drier than normal since the beginning of March. Many communities have already seen temperatures creep into the 90s, which is more typical of late May than early to mid-April.

The orientation of the jet stream, along with these repetitive ridges, have forced rain and thunderstorms to deflect around the southeast and hammer the Midwest and Great Lakes instead.

Drought is steadily worsening from Texas to New Jersey amid the lack of rainfall. The worst deficits are building in Florida, where places like Tallahassee, Tampa, and Jacksonville have fallen behind by 5-10+ inches since last autumn.

A look at the percent of normal precipitation over the past 30 days does a fantastic job outlining the heat ridges over the southeast and the active storm track that's extended from Texas to Ontario.

Folks across the Midwest and Great Lakes have had it rough since the start of meteorological spring.

A seemingly endless stream of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall have led to destructive tornadoes and damaging hailstorms throughout the region.

The outline of severe weather reports since March 1 looks more like something you'd expect to see in the middle of summer rather than the middle of spring. We'd usually find the worst thunderstorms around Mississippi and Alabama in April.

Bouts of severe flooding have accompanied the persistent rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the region. We've even seen extensive flooding over the border in portions of Ontario as the heavy rainfall combines with rapid snowmelt.

Graphics courtesy of the CPC

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for May isn't terribly optimistic for dramatic improvement for either extreme.

Forecasters expect enhanced odds of generally warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern tier of the country, with no strong signal for either extreme rainfall or extreme dryness.

April 13, 2026

Eastern U.S. to endure record-breaking heat wave this week

Dennis Mersereau 4/13/2026 03:44:00 PM drought heat southeast Leave a Reply

The spring of intense heat rolls on this week as a significant ridge of high pressure building over the eastern United States cranks up summer-like temperatures across the region.

Long spells of bright sunshine will help boost readings from the upper 80s to mid-90s at times.

The most widespread heat will arrive on Wednesday, which is when we'll see toasty temperatures stretch as far north as New York. Readings could even climb to near 80 degrees up in Boston and Albany.

We'll watch the ridge pull back a bit heading into the latter half of the week, focusing the summer-like air mass over the southeastern states. Long stretches of temperatures well above seasonal will blanket everyone from central Florida to southern Virginia during this heat wave.

This upcoming stretch will feature the warmest temperatures we've seen since early last autumn. Over the past 60 days, daytime highs in the 90s have remained relegated to portions of Florida and pockets of coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Quite a few heat records may fall in the coming days.

According to the National Weather Service's latest forecast, 133 record highs and 262 record warm low temperatures are at risk of falling between Tuesday afternoon and Sunday morning.

This extended period of hot and dry weather is bad news for a region dealing with ever-worsening drought.

Last Tuesday's update of the United States Drought Monitor found that drought covered nearly 94% of the southeastern states, with one-third of the region enduring extreme or exceptional drought conditions. We can expect these numbers to look even worse in the next couple of weekly updates.

March 18, 2026

Nobody should 'apologize' for Monday's severe weather forecast

Dennis Mersereau 3/18/2026 04:29:00 PM severe weather Leave a Reply

Who will apologize for D.C. not getting swept away by a tornado?

Tens of millions of people went through the day Monday under a severe weather risk that warranted the second-highest category on the Storm Prediction Center's colorful scale. Forecasters issued this level 4 risk ahead of a potential for widespread damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Most indications pointed toward a significant severe weather day. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes seemed to be the highest much of the region had seen in a decade or longer.

Residents took the forecasts seriously. Many school districts cancelled classes for the day to keep buses and children off the roads. Airlines preemptively cancelled flights at major hubs.

Storms ultimately struggled to form through the day. Whether due to limited instability or "contamination" from too much precipitation throughout the day, it was clear early on that we'd escaped the high-end scenario that so many forecasters feared.

Multiple lines of thunderstorms still caused hefty wind damage. The SPC collected more than 500 reports of severe weather from Florida to New York, with the bulk of damage and 58+ mph gusts centered around the Mid-Atlantic. Several weak tornadoes also touched down.

Criticism began even before the skies cleared out. One writer for The Atlantic wants to speak to the manager of weather, demanding an apology for the forecasts and perhaps a coupon for half-off his next hailstorm.

Sorry that you were adequately prepared for a potentially dangerous situation? Deepest apologies for not withholding vital information that may have helped people in harm's way?

Some people are mad that they got nervous or changed plans for "nothing." And that's valid. A few of them may tune out the next severe weather alerts, and it's a gamble with life and property that every adult has the right to make.

But folks who are genuinely angry that the forecast didn't pan out should be honest about what they wanted to happen on Monday. Our society loves rubbernecking. After all, Twisters didn't sell out just because Glen Powell is hot.

What if this scenario had gone the other way, instead, and forecasters downplayed a severe weather event that caused major damage and casualties? To the folks who are angry, would no alarm be preferable to the occasional false alarm?

I live with storm anxiety myself. I had to huddle in my dentist's hallway with 20 other people during a tornado warning on Monday morning. I understand what it's like to get nervous before and during bad weather. But I was still glued to the forecasts and radar. I don't bury my head in the sand. I'm grateful to meteorologists who did what they could to keep us safe.

Forecasters are in an impossible situation. Weather predictions are so accurate nowadays that people expect perfection every time. For all the advancements in the science of meteorology, predicting the future still has its limitations and downfalls.

Sometimes all the ingredients for bad weather are in place, and then the bad weather isn't as bad as feared.

I'm sleeping fine this week. No apology needed.

March 17, 2026

Hundreds of records set to fall as historic heat wave roasts western U.S.

Dennis Mersereau 3/17/2026 02:05:00 PM heat wave southwest west Leave a Reply

An exceptionally powerful ridge of high pressure building over the western United States this week will send temperatures soaring into historic territory through the end of the week and into this weekend.

We're almost certainly going to break the record for hottest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. during the month of March.

Beyond that dubious achievement, hundreds of daily and monthly temperature records are set to fall across the west, and many areas are on track to see their earliest 100°F reading ever observed.

This intense ridge of high pressure will help to crank temperatures 20-25+ degrees above average heading into this weekend.

Here's a look at the National Weather Service's predicted highs on...

Thursday:

Friday:

Saturday:

The scope and intensity of this heat wave is unprecedented for this early in the year.

Forecasters expect more than 600 records to fall through early next week. The NWS is predicting more than 400 daily high temperature records to fall or tie through next Monday, alongside an additional 280 record warm overnight low temperatures.

For reference, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. during the month of March was 108°F in Rio Grande City, Texas.

Highs in Palm Springs and Yuma are easily expected to meet that mark by the beginning of the weekend, with Yuma's high of 108°F beating its previous monthly record high by six full degrees.

It's possible that one of the usual hot spots near the Salton Sea, such as Mecca or Thermal, will crack 110°F on Friday.

Down the road, Phoenix is on track to hit 101°F on Wednesday for their earliest 100-degree reading on record, beating out the previous record of March 26, 1988. A high of 107°F on Saturday would be the earliest such reading there by almost a month and a half (the current record is May 2, 1947).

Las Vegas will inch close to the century mark, easily blowing past their all-time March high temperature of 93°F set back in 2022. The city's average high this time of year is just 72°F.

The southwest isn't the only region expecting big-time heat.

Parts of the Bay Area, including some neighborhoods in San Francisco, will climb into the upper 80s by the end of the week. San Francisco Airport may come close to breaking its March high temperature record of 85°F first set back in 1952.

March's all-time high temperature record is even at risk all the way east in Denver, where a predicted high of 87°F on Saturday would break the old benchmark by three degrees.

Looking ahead, the extreme heat should subside across the southwest heading into next week, though with well above-average temperatures sticking around through the end of the month.

Model image at the top of this post courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

March 14, 2026

Widespread severe weather expected Sunday and Monday

Dennis Mersereau 3/14/2026 11:50:00 AM severe weather tornadoes Leave a Reply

An active period of severe weather continues across the eastern half of the United States as another strong low-pressure system winds up to end the weekend.

While the storm produces a full-blown blizzard across parts of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, plenty of unstable air and wind shear will create a multi-day severe thunderstorm threat on the southern side of the system.

Sunday's severe weather threat stretches from southeastern Texas to northern Michigan, with the greatest risk centered on the Mississippi River valley as a squall line sweeps through the region.

The predominant threat through the day Sunday will be damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 70 mph. A few strong tornadoes and some large hail are also possible, especially in any storms that form independent of the main squall line.

We'll see the risk for severe weather renew on the East Coast during the day Monday. Storms here will arrive in two rounds.

Supercell thunderstorms are possible in the enhanced risk zone on Monday afternoon, which will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

A squall line will sweep in behind those initial storms, posing a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes.

March 6, 2026

SPC launches new 'conditional intensity outlooks' for severe thunderstorms

Dennis Mersereau 3/06/2026 09:20:00 AM forecasts severe weather Leave a Reply

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have a new tool in their belt to communicate the potential intensity of severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Beginning this month, the agency began issuing conditional intensity outlooks in their forecasts.

The colorful categorical outlooks we've grown familiar with won't change. The SPC will continue issuing outlooks on a five-category scale: marginal (1), slight (2), enhanced (3), moderate (4), and high (5).

Some changes under the hood will better reflect the threat posed by storms on any given day.

The SPC arrives at those categorical outlooks by assigning probabilities to the risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Each category is based on the greatest probability for severe weather in a particular area.

For instance, if there's a 30% probability for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail, the greater threat (winds) would warrant a slight (2) risk for severe weather.

Meteorologists with the SPC can also indicate when there's a risk for significant severe weather, which includes strong, long-lived tornadoes, wind gusts of 75+ mph, or hail larger than golf balls. The potential for significant severe weather was indicated by hatching on the probability maps.

Conditional intensity outlooks replace the hatching on those probability maps. Instead of one-size-fits-all, the "significant" label is now broken down into three conditional intensity groups (CIG).

You can see the breakdown in the chart above. The higher the CIG, the greater the potential for significant and potentially destructive severe weather.

CIG 1 days will be relatively common. CIG 2 days will be uncommon. The issuance of CIG 3, much like a high (5) risk, is reserved for days expected to produce a major tornado outbreak or a derecho.

Here's what the new conditional intensity outlooks look like in practice on an SPC forecast map using the infamous outbreak of April 27, 2011, as an example. The greatest threat, CIG 3, corresponds to where some of the day's strongest tornadoes touched down in Mississippi and Alabama.

This change will help meteorologists better communicate the risk for severe weather in your community. Alerting folks ahead of the potential for powerful tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, or very large hail can help them better prepare for severe weather--and take watches and warnings more seriously.

You can watch a 40-minute presentation from the SPC explaining these changes more in depth.