Eastern U.S. to endure record-breaking heat wave this week

The spring of intense heat rolls on this week as a significant ridge of high pressure building over the eastern United States cranks up summer-like temperatures across the region.

Long spells of bright sunshine will help boost readings from the upper 80s to mid-90s at times.

The most widespread heat will arrive on Wednesday, which is when we'll see toasty temperatures stretch as far north as New York. Readings could even climb to near 80 degrees up in Boston and Albany.

We'll watch the ridge pull back a bit heading into the latter half of the week, focusing the summer-like air mass over the southeastern states. Long stretches of temperatures well above seasonal will blanket everyone from central Florida to southern Virginia during this heat wave.

This upcoming stretch will feature the warmest temperatures we've seen since early last autumn. Over the past 60 days, daytime highs in the 90s have remained relegated to portions of Florida and pockets of coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Quite a few heat records may fall in the coming days.

According to the National Weather Service's latest forecast, 133 record highs and 262 record warm low temperatures are at risk of falling between Tuesday afternoon and Sunday morning.

This extended period of hot and dry weather is bad news for a region dealing with ever-worsening drought.

Last Tuesday's update of the United States Drought Monitor found that drought covered nearly 94% of the southeastern states, with one-third of the region enduring extreme or exceptional drought conditions. We can expect these numbers to look even worse in the next couple of weekly updates.

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Nobody should 'apologize' for Monday's severe weather forecast

Who will apologize for D.C. not getting swept away by a tornado?

Tens of millions of people went through the day Monday under a severe weather risk that warranted the second-highest category on the Storm Prediction Center's colorful scale. Forecasters issued this level 4 risk ahead of a potential for widespread damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. 

Most indications pointed toward a significant severe weather day. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes seemed to be the highest much of the region had seen in a decade or longer.

Residents took the forecasts seriously. Many school districts cancelled classes for the day to keep buses and children off the roads. Airlines preemptively cancelled flights at major hubs. 

Storms ultimately struggled to form through the day. Whether due to limited instability or "contamination" from too much precipitation throughout the day, it was clear early on that we'd escaped the high-end scenario that so many forecasters feared.

Multiple lines of thunderstorms still caused hefty wind damage. The SPC collected more than 500 reports of severe weather from Florida to New York, with the bulk of damage and 58+ mph gusts centered around the Mid-Atlantic. Several weak tornadoes also touched down.

Criticism began even before the skies cleared out. One writer for The Atlantic wants to speak to the manager of weather, demanding an apology for the forecasts and perhaps a coupon for half-off his next hailstorm.

Sorry that you were adequately prepared for a potentially dangerous situation? Deepest apologies for not withholding vital information that may have helped people in harm's way?

Some people are mad that they got nervous or changed plans for "nothing." And that's valid. A few of them may tune out the next severe weather alerts, and it's a gamble with life and property that every adult has the right to make.

But folks who are genuinely angry that the forecast didn't pan out should be honest about what they wanted to happen on Monday. Our society loves rubbernecking. After all, Twisters didn't sell out just because Glen Powell is hot.

What if this scenario had gone the other way, instead, and forecasters downplayed a severe weather event that caused major damage and casualties? To the folks who are angry, would no alarm be preferable to the occasional false alarm?

I live with storm anxiety myself. I had to huddle in my dentist's hallway with 20 other people during a tornado warning on Monday morning. I understand what it's like to get nervous before and during bad weather. But I was still glued to the forecasts and radar. I don't bury my head in the sand. I'm grateful to meteorologists who did what they could to keep us safe.

Forecasters are in an impossible situation. Weather predictions are so accurate nowadays that people expect perfection every time. For all the advancements in the science of meteorology, predicting the future still has its limitations and downfalls.

Sometimes all the ingredients for bad weather are in place, and then the bad weather isn't as bad as feared.

I'm sleeping fine this week. No apology needed.

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Hundreds of records set to fall as historic heat wave roasts western U.S.

An exceptionally powerful ridge of high pressure building over the western United States this week will send temperatures soaring into historic territory through the end of the week and into this weekend.

We're almost certainly going to break the record for hottest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. during the month of March.

Beyond that dubious achievement, hundreds of daily and monthly temperature records are set to fall across the west, and many areas are on track to see their earliest 100°F reading ever observed. 

This intense ridge of high pressure will help to crank temperatures 20-25+ degrees above average heading into this weekend. 

Here's a look at the National Weather Service's predicted highs on...

Thursday:

Friday:

Saturday:

The scope and intensity of this heat wave is unprecedented for this early in the year.

Forecasters expect more than 600 records to fall through early next week. The NWS is predicting more than 400 daily high temperature records to fall or tie through next Monday, alongside an additional 280 record warm overnight low temperatures. 

For reference, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. during the month of March was 108°F in Rio Grande City, Texas.

Highs in Palm Springs and Yuma are easily expected to meet that mark by the beginning of the weekend, with Yuma's high of 108°F beating its previous monthly record high by six full degrees.

It's possible that one of the usual hot spots near the Salton Sea, such as Mecca or Thermal, will crack 110°F on Friday.

Down the road, Phoenix is on track to hit 101°F on Wednesday for their earliest 100-degree reading on record, beating out the previous record of March 26, 1988. A high of 107°F on Saturday would be the earliest such reading there by almost a month and a half (the current record is May 2, 1947).

Las Vegas will inch close to the century mark, easily blowing past their all-time March high temperature of 93°F set back in 2022. The city's average high this time of year is just 72°F.

The southwest isn't the only region expecting big-time heat.

Parts of the Bay Area, including some neighborhoods in San Francisco, will climb into the upper 80s by the end of the week. San Francisco Airport may come close to breaking its March high temperature record of 85°F first set back in 1952.

March's all-time high temperature record is even at risk all the way east in Denver, where a predicted high of 87°F on Saturday would break the old benchmark by three degrees.

Looking ahead, the extreme heat should subside across the southwest heading into next week, though with well above-average temperatures sticking around through the end of the month.

Model image at the top of this post courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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Widespread severe weather expected Sunday and Monday

An active period of severe weather continues across the eastern half of the United States as another strong low-pressure system winds up to end the weekend.

While the storm produces a full-blown blizzard across parts of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, plenty of unstable air and wind shear will create a multi-day severe thunderstorm threat on the southern side of the system.

Sunday's severe weather threat stretches from southeastern Texas to northern Michigan, with the greatest risk centered on the Mississippi River valley as a squall line sweeps through the region.

The predominant threat through the day Sunday will be damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 70 mph. A few strong tornadoes and some large hail are also possible, especially in any storms that form independent of the main squall line.

We'll see the risk for severe weather renew on the East Coast during the day Monday. Storms here will arrive in two rounds.

Supercell thunderstorms are possible in the enhanced risk zone on Monday afternoon, which will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. 

A squall line will sweep in behind those initial storms, posing a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes.

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SPC launches new 'conditional intensity outlooks' for severe thunderstorms

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have a new tool in their belt to communicate the potential intensity of severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Beginning this month, the agency began issuing conditional intensity outlooks in their forecasts.

The colorful categorical outlooks we've grown familiar with won't change. The SPC will continue issuing outlooks on a five-category scale: marginal (1), slight (2), enhanced (3), moderate (4), and high (5).

Some changes under the hood will better reflect the threat posed by storms on any given day.

The SPC arrives at those categorical outlooks by assigning probabilities to the risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Each category is based on the greatest probability for severe weather in a particular area. 

For instance, if there's a 30% probability for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail, the greater threat (winds) would warrant a slight (2) risk for severe weather.

Meteorologists with the SPC can also indicate when there's a risk for significant severe weather, which includes strong, long-lived tornadoes, wind gusts of 75+ mph, or hail larger than golf balls. The potential for significant severe weather was indicated by hatching on the probability maps.

Conditional intensity outlooks replace the hatching on those probability maps. Instead of one-size-fits-all, the "significant" label is now broken down into three conditional intensity groups (CIG). 

You can see the breakdown in the chart above. The higher the CIG, the greater the potential for significant and potentially destructive severe weather.

CIG 1 days will be relatively common. CIG 2 days will be uncommon. The issuance of CIG 3, much like a high (5) risk, is reserved for days expected to produce a major tornado outbreak or a derecho.

Here's what the new conditional intensity outlooks look like in practice on an SPC forecast map using the infamous outbreak of April 27, 2011, as an example. The greatest threat, CIG 3, corresponds to where some of the day's strongest tornadoes touched down in Mississippi and Alabama.

This change will help meteorologists better communicate the risk for severe weather in your community. Alerting folks ahead of the potential for powerful tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, or very large hail can help them better prepare for severe weather--and take watches and warnings more seriously.

You can watch a 40-minute presentation from the SPC explaining these changes more in depth.

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Melissa becomes the 100th retired Atlantic storm name

Experts with the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization announced this week that "Melissa" is officially retired as an Atlantic hurricane name. This is the 100th name to face retirement since the practice began in 1953.

Hurricane Melissa grew into one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever observed as it swirled south of Jamaica in late-October 2025, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph just before devastating parts of the island nation.

This intensity ties with 1980's Hurricane Allen as the strongest maximum sustained winds ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. 

Melissa killed several dozen people and caused more than $2 billion in damages throughout the Caribbean, with most of the damage focused in western Jamaica where the eye came ashore near peak intensity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is responsible for standardizing official tropical cyclone names across the world's ocean basins. An annual meeting at the beginning of the year fields name retirement requests from nations that saw widespread casualties or damage from a storm. 

Melissa is the 100th storm name to face retirement since the practice of regularly naming storms began back in 1953. 

The modern naming system for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific began in 1979. Each basin has six lists each consisting of 21 names. One list is used every six years, so the names on deck for 2026 were last used in 2020.

Melissa will be replaced by Molly when last year's list is reused in 2031.

Out of the original pool of 126 storm names drafted back in 1979, 54 have been retired and 72 remain in use today. 

'I' is the letter with the most name retirements at 13. This is mostly due to the fact that most 'I' storms develop near the peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable for strong hurricanes. The only letter in use without any retirements is 'V'. 

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA/CIRA]

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5+ inches of rain expected as new pattern settles in this week

A soggy and springlike pattern will develop across the eastern half of the country this week. Soaking rains are likely from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, while record-setting temperatures are in the forecast across the southeast.

This week will see a ridge of high pressure build over the southeastern United States, which will help turn up the heat from Florida to the eastern Great Lakes. We'll see widespread highs in the 70s to lower 80s by Friday and into this upcoming weekend.

More than 200 record highs and record warm-lows are expected to tie or fall by next weekend as the warmth and humidity settle in for a lengthy stay.

This ridge will help to establish an active storm track through the center of the country, stretching from southern Texas through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecasters expect persistent waves of showers and thunderstorms to ride along the boundaries that will set up over the region. Many of the affected areas will see several inches of rain through the end of the weekend. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas may see 4-5+ inches of rain from this event.

While a flooding potential will exist where too much heavy rain falls all at once, this is overall some pretty good news for areas that have seen growing drought over the past few months.

Much of the attention recently has focused on the worsening drought over Florida, but the southern Plains are feeling it hard as well.

Check out these paltry rainfall totals for meteorological winter, stretching from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28. 

Dallas, Tulsa, and San Antonio only picked up 25-30 percent of their normal winter rains this past season. 

This upcoming round of precipitation will help to put a dent in these deficits, kicking off the spring season on a strong note.

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The Blizzard of 2026 dropped all-time record snowfall totals

The snowstorm that just buried parts of the northeastern United States will go down as a historic blizzard for the region, rivaling legendary storms like the blizzards of 1978, 2013, and 2016. 

Dynamics were perfect for a classic nor'easter to develop just offshore. The system's rapid intensification drove powerful winds that created blizzard conditions at times. Intense bands of snow were fueled by ample moisture, plenty of cold air, and the intensifying storm itself. 

The heaviest accumulations occurred where those relentless bands of snow remained stationary for hours at a time. 

Providence, Rhode Island, 'won' the storm with a whopping 37.2 inches of snow. This swept away the city's previous all-time total of 28.6 inches set during the infamous blizzard of 1978. Records in Providence stretch back to 1904.

Islip, New York, picked up 29.1 inches of snow, setting their all-time snowstorm with records that date back to the 1940s. 

Newark's Liberty International Airport reported 27.2 inches of snow by the end of the storm, coming in the number-two spot since records began there in 1931. This system fell just six-tenths of an inch shy of tying the all-time record held by the blizzard of January 1996.

Here's a look at seasonal snowfall totals across the lower 48 so far this season. This is the first winter in a long while where snow lovers haven't had much to complain about. Measurable snow has fallen in all 50 states.

Boston has picked up 60.4 inches of snow so far this season, which is well above the 36.8 inches they'd typically see through Feb. 24. New York City's Central Park has measured 42.0 inches, running well ahead of their average-to-date of 23.1 inches.

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