High-risk tornado outbreak expected in the Deep South on Saturday

A rare 'high risk' for severe weather—a level five out of five—is in effect for a swath of the Deep South on Saturday as a dangerous thunderstorm setup sweeps across the region.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) only issues one or two high risk areas every year. This means that forecasters are confident in the likelihood of a tornado outbreak across the affected areas.

URGENT: The National Weather Service is a lifesaving public resource. We must save it.

The Setup and Risk

A powerful low-pressure system rolling across the center of the country unleashed deadly severe thunderstorms Friday and through the overnight hours. Multiple tornadoes and widespread wind damage were reported from Texas to Minnesota.

That setup is pushing east to start the weekend, with a second and even more intense round of severe thunderstorms expected through the day Saturday.

Strong instability and ample wind shear should give rise to widespread severe thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Conditions are favorable for these storms to quickly turn into supercells capable of producing intense, long-track tornadoes, as well as destructive wind gusts and hail the size of golf balls or larger. 

While all modes of severe weather are possible, the greatest concern remains the tornado threat. If today's risk lives up to its potential, this could be a high-end outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes in and around the moderate and high risk areas.

Potential Hiccups

Tornado outbreaks are relatively rare for a reason. These devastating events require all the ingredients aligning just right to spawn significant severe weather. It appears that all those ingredients are in place in the right sequence today.

But sometimes things don't work out as expected. What are the potential modes of failure today?

Forecasters expect multiple dangerous supercells to roll across the moderate and high risk areas, bringing with them a threat for significant tornadoes. However, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could see thunderstorms quickly align into one or more squall lines, in which case the predominant threat would transition to widespread damaging winds with the potential for embedded tornadoes.

Existing cloud cover across the region could rob the atmosphere of some of the instability it needs to allow thunderstorms to flourish across areas under the highest risk for severe weather. This appears less likely given the storms already bubbling up at the time of this post's publication.

That said—all the warning lights are blinking red. This is a serious threat and folks in the region should pay close attention to the weather and ensure they've got a way to stay safe if dangerous conditions threaten.

Severe Weather Safety

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is At Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

---

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Significant severe thunderstorm outbreaks expected Friday and Saturday

Two significant rounds of severe thunderstorms are likely over the next couple of days as a powerful low-pressure system develops across the center of the country.

I covered the basics of the setup yesterday. All the dynamics are present for a multi-day severe thunderstorm outbreak heading into the weekend.

A rapidly intensifying Colorado low will drag ample instability over the center of the U.S. Strong wind shear throughout the atmosphere will enable any thunderstorms that form to quickly turn severe, threatening damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Friday

A moderate risk for severe weather—a level four out of five—is in effect Friday from southeastern Iowa through northwestern Tennessee. This includes St. Louis, Springfield, and Paducah. A broader threat for severe weather exists from southern Wisconsin all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters expect a robust squall line to develop and race east across the region, posing a threat for widespread damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Significant wind gusts of 75+ mph are possible in and around communities under the moderate risk. Embedded tornadoes could form within the squall line. 

If you live in this area, please plan to avoid parts of your home where large trees or tree limbs loom overhead. If you're in a vehicle when storms arrive, park away from trees and power lines. Most injuries and fatalities in severe thunderstorms are the result of trees falling into homes and vehicles during high winds.

Conditions will also be favorable for supercell thunderstorms to develop ahead of or within the squall line itself. These supercells could produce strong tornadoes, hail the size of golf balls or larger, and very strong wind gusts.

The threat will continue after dark across communities on the eastern side of the risk zones.

Saturday

Saturday could be a rough day for tornadoes across the Deep South.

If the lingering thunderstorm activity from Friday doesn't stabilize the atmosphere, conditions on Saturday will be favorable for widespread intense supercells to develop across the Deep South from eastern Louisiana through eastern Tennessee.

A moderate risk for severe weather includes New Orleans, Mobile, Jackson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Birmingham, for the risk for intense, long-track tornadoes in any supercells that form across the region. This could be one of those days we get "particularly dangerous situation (PDS)" tornado watches.

While the bulk of Saturday's risk will remain to the south, lines of severe thunderstorms are possible as far north as Cleveland and Erie. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger, which could lead to tree damage and power outages.

Severe Weather Safety

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is At Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

---

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Severe weather risk builds as another powerful spring storm develops

The risk for severe thunderstorms will build heading into this weekend as yet another significant low-pressure system roars to life across the center of the country. 

Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Saturday, an event the Storm Prediction Center described on Wednesday as a potential "outbreak."

URGENT: The National Weather Service is a lifesaving public resource. We must save it.

The Setup

A model snapshot of the trough that'll give rise to our powerful low-pressure system on Friday (Tropical Tidbits)

A powerful trough swinging over the West Coast will cross the Rockies to end the week. The lift from this trough, combined with a powerful jet stream over the southern U.S., will give rise to a rapidly developing low-pressure system over eastern Colorado early on Friday.

This Colorado low will deepen in a hurry as it traverses the Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Much like the storm we saw last week, this system's rapid intensification could threaten some monthly air pressure records from Nebraska to Minnesota.

High Winds

A rapidly deepening low-pressure system is a recipe for widespread powerful winds. Expect wind advisories and high wind warnings to eventually blanket much of the central and southern U.S. as this storm builds over the region. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, with much higher gusts, will be possible Friday and Saturday.

The combination of high winds and dry air wrapping around the backside of the system will create a multi-day wildfire risk across large chunks of New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. Any wildfires that spark through the weekend could quickly grow out of control and threaten nearby communities.

Severe Thunderstorms—FRIDAY

Warm, unstable air surging inland on southerly winds will create ample instability throughout the middle of the country on Friday. Intense wind shear associated with the developing storm will give the storms the kick they need to quickly turn severe. 

Forecasters expect severe thunderstorms to spread from west to east through the day. All modes of severe weather—damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes—will be possible on Friday. 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an enhanced risk, a level three out of five, for much of the Mississippi Valley from northern Mississippi into north-central Illinois, including the cities of Memphis and St. Louis.

"Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows," the SPC said in its forecast on Wednesday. A QLCS—quasi-linear convective system—is a squall line.

Severe Thunderstorms—SATURDAY

The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms will develop on Saturday as the focus of the threat moves into the Deep South. All the dynamics are in place for a potential severe weather outbreak across the region. 

The SPC doesn't issue categorical outlooks four days in advance, so we have a more generic risk map (shown above) to highlight the threat for severe weather on Saturday. An orange 30% risk is roughly the same as a level three enhanced risk for severe weather.

All modes of severe weather will be possible on Saturday. The concern will grow if Friday's leftover thunderstorm activity doesn't stabilize the atmosphere, which would allow for more favorable dynamics for severe weather on Saturday.

"If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight," the SPC said on Wednesday.

Severe Thunderstorms—SUNDAY

No matter what happens on Saturday, it's likely that we'll see thunderstorms continue east overnight and approach the eastern seaboard heading into the day Sunday. 

The SPC highlighted a slight risk for severe weather from northern Florida through northeastern Pennsylvania ahead of these storms. It's likely that damaging winds would be the predominant threat from these storms, but dynamics may be favorable for a tornado or two.

Severe Weather Safety

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is At Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

---

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Powerful spring storm threatens tornadoes, damaging winds this week

Widespread severe thunderstorms, winter weather, and damaging winds are likely over the next couple of days as a powerful low-pressure system develops across the center of the country. 

This storm could come close to breaking some monthly pressure records across the Midwest. Even if it falls just short, this intense Colorado low will run the table with just about every type of active weather through midweek. 

URGENT: The National Weather Service is a lifesaving public resource. We must save it.

The Setup

SOURCE: Weather Prediction Center

A strong jet stream snaking across the middle of the United States is giving rise to a powerful low-pressure system over eastern Colorado. This system will steadily intensify as it makes its way toward the Great Lakes through Wednesday, dragging the entire spectrum of active weather along its path. 

This system's minimum central pressure could drop to around 980 mb by Wednesday, which is within a few millibars of the all-time March low air pressure records in places like Chicago. This is going to be a formidable storm—and its strength will reflect in the thunderstorms, winds, and wintry weather it produces.

Wind advisories and high wind warnings span much of the southern United States as this storm roars to life. These will be pressure gradient winds—simply winds kicked up by the low-pressure system's rapid intensification, independent of the thunderstorms expected across the region. 

Cold air on the northern side of the system will drop heavy snowfall across the Plains and Upper Midwest, with blizzard conditions expected through parts of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska.

The most pressing concern, though, is a dayslong risk for severe thunderstorms.

Monday's Severe Weather

An enhanced—level 3 out of 5—risk for severe weather exists across parts of the southern Plains on Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Forecasters expect severe thunderstorms to develop across northern Texas and southern/central Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Storms may initially form as supercells before quickly congealing into a squall line. Tornadoes, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and large hail are all possible in these nocturnal thunderstorms.

Tuesday's Severe Weather

The risk for severe thunderstorms will peak on Tuesday as strong wind shear meets up with ample instability over the Deep South. 

Monday night's squall line will likely continue moving east toward the Mississippi River through the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday, bringing the risk for damaging winds with embedded tornadoes.

Additional thunderstorms are possible ahead of that squall line. Any discrete thunderstorms that develop in this environment will be capable of producing strong tornadoes. The severe threat will continue as the squall line pushes through the region with the risk for damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. 

Wednesday's Severe Weather

Our squall line will keep on trucking toward the East Coast overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, shoving the risk for severe weather east.

Thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts as far north as Buffalo, New York, and as far south as Orlando, Florida. The greatest risk for damaging winds—and possibly an embedded tornado or two—will exist from the D.C./Baltimore area south through the Carolinas and into eastern Georgia. 

NOTE: The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

---

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Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
  

The National Weather Service is a lifesaving public resource. We must save it.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is probably the single most important federal agency you benefit from on a daily basis. We must protect it from indiscriminate cuts and outsourcing. 

Every time you check your weather forecast, whether it's from a private weather company or the NWS itself, you're relying on the agency's vast resources and expertise to plan your day and keep your family safe. 

Value on a scant budget

The agency runs on a budget of just over $1.3 billion per year, meaning the NWS and all its services only costs each American about $3.91 per year.

The American Meteorological Society estimated in 2021 that the NWS's output is worth about $102 billion per year. That's an average return of about $74 for every $1 spent on the agency—a tremendous bargain given the forecasts, warnings, products, and services they offer the country on such a lean budget. 

The National Weather Service employs thousands of meteorologists at 122 offices around the country, each staffed with professionals who are experts in the local climate. 

Combined, these offices are tasked with the lifesaving mission of issuing forecasts for every square mile of the United States. Every severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning you've ever heard began with an NWS forecaster's keen eye. 

Forecasters with the NWS routinely provide Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) for local, state, and federal officials during high-impact weather events. This support ranges from telephone weather briefings to on-site decision support, such as deploying meteorologists into the field to help crews battle wildfires. It's an invaluable link that helps key decisionmakers direct where and how to deploy resources and aid before, during, and after a storm.

Lifesaving tools to stay safe in severe weather

Have you ever checked the radar on your phone? Whether you looked on a weather app or the NWS's website itself, all that radar data came from one of 143 NEXRAD Doppler radar sites across the contiguous United States. 

Forecasters use the data collected by these sites to keep tabs on showers and supercells alike, saving countless lives every year by providing crucial warning before tornadoes, damaging winds, hailstorms, winter storms, dust storms, and flash floods. 

Trained storm spotters are an important piece of the puzzle during severe weather events. The National Weather Service offers free SKYWARN training courses to help educate the public on severe weather—everything from identifying tornadoes to properly measuring snow.

Specially built radio receivers can tap into free NOAA Weather Radio stations that cover almost every populated portion of the United States. A NOAA Weather Radio is like a smoke detector for the weather, providing a heads-up when severe weather alerts are issued for your location.

In fact, the wireless emergency push alerts that screech on your phone during tornadoes, flash floods, hurricanes, and snow squalls arrive in your pocket based on the warnings drawn by NWS forecasters. You get that alert mere moments after a government meteorologist hits the 'send' button on their computer.  

Branches of the NWS keep us safe year-round

The Storm Prediction Center is a branch of the National Weather Service that provides severe weather outlooks, severe thunderstorm and tornado watches, as well as fire weather outlooks across the country. Every tornado watch you've gotten in the past few decades came straight from a meteorologist working at the SPC. 

Hurricane season is a scary time for coastal residents. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for closely tracking the Atlantic and Pacific basins from the moment a tropical disturbance shows up in the models until a hurricane swirls ashore. Almost every hurricane forecast you see during the summer and fall comes directly from the NHC. 

Worried about what the weather might look like in a couple of weeks? Medium- and long-range outlooks provided by the Climate Prediction Center can help people and businesses alike prepare for cold spells, heat waves, droughts, and potential deluges on the horizon.

They're not just focused on storms happening on Earth. Solar storms can pose a significant threat to communications, navigation, and power grids. The Space Weather Prediction Center constantly monitors the Sun and issues alerts when strong solar storms are detected. 

Observations form the bedrock of weather forecasting

Many of the weather models forecasters use on a daily basis are run by the National Weather Service and NOAA. This includes the "American" (GFS) model and high-resolution models like the NAM, the HRRR, and the RAP. This may not sound impressive to the average person, but these models are responsible for helping meteorologists issue exceptionally accurate forecasts. 

Models don't operate in a vacuum. The model has to "know" what the weather looks like right now in order to predict what the weather might look like tomorrow. 

A major resource for these observations comes from upper-air soundings gathered by devices attached to weather balloons. The NWS is directly responsible for launching hundreds of weather balloons every day. Not only does this data help improve models, but the information gathered can help forecasters predict events like tornado outbreaks and ice storms. 

And, of course, there's satellite data. Best of luck to the private weather company that wants to launch their own satellites into geosynchronous orbit. These satellites provide more than photorealistic imagery of our skies above. They can monitor lightning, track dust and pollution, detect wildfires, and even monitor the Sun for potentially disruptive solar storms. 

A serious ongoing threat to the agency's mission

The White House is currently undertaking an unprecedented effort to gut the federal government, strangling and cutting off programs legally funded by acts of Congress. NOAA, and possibly the NWS by extension, may be on the chopping block soon.

Many NWS offices already struggle with barebones staffing. This month's indiscriminate firing of new hires and recently promoted individuals will make these staffing issues worse.

Project 2025, the current administration's governing blueprint, outright calls for the abolition of the National Weather Service as we know it.

"The NWS provides data the private companies use and should focus on its data-gathering services. Because private companies rely on these data, the NWS should fully commercialize its forecasting operations," Project 2025 says on page 707.

Private companies cannot—and should not—replace the National Weather Service. Critical weather forecasts and lifesaving severe weather warnings are a public good.

Privatization wouldn't save any money. Abolishing the NWS as we know it would force Americans to pay to receive weather forecasts twice—once through our tax dollars subsidizing private companies, and then again by requiring us to pay those private companies to receive our forecasts and warnings. 

Any further cuts or changes to this critical federal agency will directly endanger lives. 

Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage. This could be the most important thing we do to protect ourselves over the next four years.

[Top Image: Pierre cb via Wikimedia Commons]

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Disruptive winter storm likely for the Mid-Atlantic early this week

A disruptive winter storm will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic early this week, likely bringing a hefty blanket of snow to the D.C.-Baltimore metropolitan areas. Any snow in this part of the country causes major hiccups, but up to half a foot of snow will easily shut down the region for at least a day or two. 

We're about to go a while without seeing much sunshine across much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. A strong jet stream lingering over the area won't move much over the next week, allowing an active storm track to spawn and drag one system after another across the region. 

Just take a look at how much precipitation is in the forecast over the next seven days:

A low-pressure system will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, quickly pushing a slug of precipitation toward the Mid-Atlantic. Plenty of cold air at the surface will allow precipitation to fall as snow for much of the area. 

Snow will spread into northern Virginia, D.C., and Maryland on Tuesday afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity through the evening hours. Expect snow to continue into Wednesday morning before tapering off west to east. 

A few inches of snow could fall from southern Virginia all the way to central Pennsylvania, including the Philly metro area. But the bulk of the wintry weather is expected around D.C. and Baltimore. 

The latest National Weather Service forecast shows a widespread blanket of 4-6 inches of snow from the Appalachians east to Delaware and southern New Jersey. A localized stripe of 6-8 inches of snow is possible along the ridgetops, as well as some of the D.C. suburbs from Culpeper east into Prince William County. 

Communities in southwestern Virginia and northwestern North Carolina could see significant ice accretion from freezing rain as warm air aloft noses into the region. The latest NWS forecast shows more than one-quarter of an inch of ice building up across some of the higher elevations here. That's enough to break weaker tree branches and possibly lead to spotty power outages.

Another disturbance will follow immediately behind this winter storm, arriving late Wednesday and lingering into Thursday. Warmer air pushing in from the south could allow for some freezing rain to fall over some of the areas expecting snow from the first system, but everyone should eventually change over to plain rain by Thursday morning.

We'll have to watch yet another robust low-pressure system this weekend for potential winter weather impacts across the Northeast.

NOTE: The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

---

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Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
  

Historic Gulf Coast winter storm was the region's worst in 130 years

A major winter storm blanketed the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday, Jan. 21, in the region's largest winter storm since February 1895. 

Roads, schools, and businesses were closed throughout the region as communities simply lacked the plows and road treatment equipment to deal with the onslaught of wintry weather. 

The system brought accumulating snow from eastern Texas through northwestern Florida, leaving behind a thicker blanket of snow than some towns have ever recorded.

The Benchmark: Blizzard of 1895

A mammoth snowfall back in 1895 remains the Gulf Coast's benchmark for a winter storm in the region. The Great Snowstorm of 2025 eclipsed that event in some spots. 

A weather map showing snow along the northern Gulf Coast the morning of Feb. 15, 1895. (NOAA)

That storm 130 years ago formed in a similar manner to the modern storm we dealt with this week: a cold snap covered the United States while a low-pressure system developed over the Gulf of Mexico.

The system back in 1895 brought tremendous snows to the region—Houston saw nearly 20 inches of accumulation, while New Orleans and Mobile each picked up about half a foot of snow. No storm since then has eclipsed those totals in Houston.

The Setup

The catalyst for the Jan. 2025 outburst of cold and snow ultimately started with a series of ridges of high pressure building over Alaska. 

Calling this an unusual pattern is an understatement. The ridge sent daytime highs soaring into the 40s across Alaska on Jan. 12. The high in Fairbanks that day climbed to 47°F, a day when their normal high temperature is supposed to be around -1°F. Temperatures remained well above normal for the following week as several more ridges built over the region.

An upper-level map showing the strong ridge over Alaska and the deep trough swooping over the U.S. on Jan. 19, 2025. (Tropical Tidbits)

These Alaskan ridges destabilized the polar vortex, an ever-present circulation of winds high above the Arctic. Frigid air remains confined to the highest latitudes when the polar vortex is stable. If it weakens and becomes unstable—like we saw last week—a lobe of the polar vortex can swoop southward and drag bitterly cold air along with it. 

About a week after the first big ridge peaked in intensity across Alaska, cold air began flooding south across Canada and into the United States. By Monday, Jan. 20, subfreezing temperatures made it as far as the Gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for the Gulf Coast's major winter storm. 

The Storm

The upper-level trough allowing that cold air to sink southward triggered the development of a low-pressure system over Texas late in the day on Monday. This rapidly developing system had free access to both frigid air to the north and Gulf moisture to the south. 

Snow and sleet began falling across eastern Texas late on Monday, spreading across the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours into Tuesday, Jan. 21. 

Heavy snow and gusty winds pushed into Louisiana early on Tuesday, prompting forecasters to issue the state's first-ever blizzard warnings for the southwestern corner of the state around Lake Charles. Snow fell on New Orleans most of the day Tuesday, bringing the city its first measurable snow in more than 15 years. 

A snowy scene on I-10 in Mobile, Alabama, on Jan. 21, 2025. (ALGoTraffic)

The system pushed heavy snow into southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama through the day Thursday. Frigid temperatures allowed the snow to stick immediately and pile up in a hurry. Videos on social media showed people having snowball fights on the beach in Orange Beach, Alabama. The National Weather Service office in Mobile reported 16-inch drifts by Tuesday evening.

Temperatures were cold enough in northwestern Florida for an exceptionally rare snowfall to blanket the panhandle of the Sunshine State. Steady snow was reported in Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City Beach through Tuesday afternoon.

Orange Beach, Alabama on Jan. 21, 2025 (Orange Beach Police Department)

Warmer temperatures holding on through the mid-levels of the atmosphere allowed a messy mix of wintry precipitation to fall across the northern Florida Peninsula as the storm arrived on Tuesday evening. Accumulating sleet and freezing rain was reported in Jacksonville, with a winter weather advisory in effect as far south as Ocala.

The Totals

We saw historic snowfall totals across the northern Gulf Coast from this storm.

Folks in eastern Texas got a solid snow day out of the event. Beaumont came in 5.5 inches of snow, Houston saw about 3.5 inches, and even the city of Galveston picked up about an inch. 

Some parts of Louisiana saw eye-popping totals from the storm. Lafayette saw about 10 inches of snow, corroborated by several nearby communities that saw reports of 8-10 inches of accumulation. 

New Orleans measured its largest snowfall in recorded history. The 8.0 inches recorded at the city's airport beat the half-foot total reported during that historic storm back in 1895. The previous record at the city's airport was 2.7 inches recorded back on Dec. 31, 1963.

Mobile, Alabama, saw its largest snowstorm in recorded history. The city picked up more than half a foot of snow from the storm, topping out with 7.5 inches by Tuesday night. This eclipses the official record of 3.6 inches measured at the airport in Feb. 1973, and it beats the historic snowstorm of Feb. 1895 which dropped about 6 inches of snow in the city.

The entire state of Florida's all-time snowfall record likely fell during this storm. Forecasters received a report of 9.5 inches of snow in Molino, Florida, in the northwest corner of the state north of Pensacola. A retired NWS employee in Milton, Florida, reported 8.8 inches of snow—which would break the statewide snowfall record in its own right. 

Pensacola also saw its largest snowfall on record. The city's biggest storm in recent history dropped 2.3 inches of snow back on Mar. 6, 1954. Pensacola saw 6-8+ inches this time around—eclipsing that previous record.

A swath of 2-5 inches of snow fell across the rest of the Florida Panhandle east toward Tallahassee, an exceptionally rare event that may not happen again for decades.

Clear skies and a thick snowpack allowed for some of the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the region by Wednesday, Jan. 22.

The preliminary low temperature in Lafayette, Louisiana, dipped all the way down to 4°F on Wednesday morning, which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded there. The previous all-time cold record was a 7°F reading back on Feb. 13, 1899. 

Mobile dropped to 7°F on Wednesday morning, only the 8th morning with a single-digit low temperature since records began at KMOB airport back in 1948. The all-time coldest temperature at the Mobile Regional Airport remains a 3°F reading on Jan. 21, 1985. (The city's all-time low was -1°F recorded during that cold outbreak in Feb. 1899.)

[Top image taken by the Walton County Sheriff's Department]

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Dangerous cold, potentially historic southern winter storm on tap this week

The heart of winter's here.  

A lobe of the polar vortex swooping down toward the southern latitudes is responsible for spilling dangerously cold temperatures across the United States to begin the week.

We're also on the lookout for a potentially historic winter storm across the Gulf Coast—because hey, why not.  

Brutal Cold Descending

The polar vortex is a circulation of winds that wraps around the Arctic. A strong polar vortex acts like a moat that keeps winter's coldest air confined to the Arctic. When the polar vortex weakens, it becomes wavy and allows troughs to dig south, opening the floodgates for bitterly cold temperatures to pour southward. 

One of those troughs is steadily making its way across the United States this weekend. The associated frigid air is likely to make Monday one of the United States' coldest days in years.

Single-digit daytime highs are likely throughout the Midwest, with high temperatures in the 30s stretching all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Monday night is going to be downright brutal for most of the country. 

Low temperatures early Tuesday morning should dip below zero for a vast swath of the U.S. We'll even see morning low temperatures in the 30s reach as far west as Phoenix and California's Central Valley. Subfreezing temperatures are likely as far south as Florida.  

Speaking of Florida...

Major Southern Winter Storm Brewing

A low-pressure system will develop over Texas on Monday and move over the Gulf of Mexico through the day, bringing a rare bout of winter weather to the northern Gulf Coast through early Tuesday.

When I say rare, I mean rare. The most snow ever recorded in New Orleans in modern history was 2.7" back in 1963. Mobile hasn't seen more than about 3 inches of snow in living memory. This event is going to rival those historic snows. 

The National Weather Service calls for a blanket of snow to fall from eastern Texas through eastern North Carolina, with communities on the Florida Panhandle—yes, Florida—expecting several inches of snow through Monday night. 

We're not just talking about snow, either. 

A significant amount of freezing rain is in the forecast for portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Some areas could see 0.10" to 0.25" of ice accretion from freezing rain, which is enough to lead to tree damage and widespread power outages.

This is a big deal for the south. Plows, salt trucks, snow shovels, and ice scrapers are virtually non-existent in this part of the world. This is going to be a high-impact, extremely disruptive storm for the region.

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