December 31, 2021

Widespread Severe Weather Possible Across The Southeast On New Year's Day


A robust low-pressure system developing over the center of the United States on Friday will push east through New Year's Day, bringing a widespread risk for severe thunderstorms to the southeastern states. As always, a midwinter risk for severe weather is especially risky because the sun sets early and folks aren't tuned in  to the threat for bad storms this time of year.

The low, developing over the southern Plains on Friday afternoon, will start to push into the Midwest overnight Friday into Saturday. If you live just about anywhere in the southern United States, you know that it's been unusually warm and humid for a while now. Southerly flow pulled north by the low will accentuate that spring-like warmth, providing the instability and lift needed to trigger thunderstorms.


The latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) paints a widespread risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday that spans south as far west as Dallas, as far south as New Orleans, and as far north as the Mason-Dixon line in the Appalachians. The greatest threat for dangerous thunderstorms lies within the enhanced risk (orange) area, which covers Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, and Birmingham.


Forecasters issued the enhanced risk for an elevated threat for tornadoes from any thunderstorms that form in the region.

There is some uncertainty around the tornado risk on Saturday. The SPC's forecast discussion on Friday notes that the environment will be very favorable for supercells to develop, but limited instability may inhibit the development of thunderstorms in the area. Later in the evening, a squall line following the cold front will bring another chance for spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the line.


There's also a risk for flash flooding this weekend, mostly across the Ohio River Valley. Steady rain and thunderstorms will produce several inches of rain along and just south of the Ohio River. The rain will fall fast enough that it could lead to flooding.

Severe storms are bad, but flooding kills more people every year than winds and tornadoes. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and it only takes a few inches of moving water to lift a vehicle and carry it downstream.

The risk for severe weather will follow the cold front as we head into Sunday, bringing a risk for damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes to the rest of the southeast through the evening hours.

If you live in or anywhere near the risk for storms this weekend, please make sure you have a way to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings the moment they're issued. Many of the storms on Saturday will occur after sunset. Nighttime severe weather is especially dangerous because you can't see what's coming your way (which is why you should always seek shelter if there's a warning!), and because people tune out and go to sleep. Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings even if you're asleep.

Here's a bit I wrote on making sure you're prepared for severe storms from earlier in December after the horrible tornadoes in Kentucky:

Please get a weather radio and check your cell phone's emergency alert settings.

Smartphones are the most common way we receive tornado warnings these days. Modern technology geotargets warnings to your location, sending you a noisy push alert the moment your location is placed within a tornado warning polygon. Wireless emergency alerts have been credited with saving countless lives over the past decade. 

The only problem is that people tend to switch these alerts off after one or two ill-timed notifications, usually for routine tests or child abduction alerts. Please take a minute today to go into your smartphone's settings and ensure these alerts are activated for tornado warnings. It could very well wake you up and save your life when you're least expecting it.

What if your device's battery dies, you don't have good reception, or you simply can't hear your phone while you're asleep or in the other room? That's when a NOAA Weather Radio can come in handy.

NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud tone and automatically read a warning out loud when your county goes under a severe weather watch or warning. They can provide you ample warning when severe weather is on the way even if your electricity and internet go out.


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December 30, 2021

Thursday's Intense Wildfire Near Boulder, Colorado, Was Months In The Making


The intense wildfire that exploded near Boulder, Colorado, on Thursday afternoon was months in the making.

Social media pictures relayed a small sample of the nightmarish conditions residents, workers, and shoppers faced when fast-moving flames rapidly engulfed communities southeast of Boulder.




Flames forced residents to flee their homes in the towns of Superior and Louisville, both situated about six miles southeast of Boulder. As of 9:15 p.m. EST, news reports indicated that hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed by the fire, including a shopping center and a hotel.

There's no word if anyone was injured or killed in the disaster, though sadly it wouldn't be a surprise if there were folks who couldn't evacuate before the fast-moving flames arrived.

This kind of firestorm is one of the most horrifying natural disasters possible, and the region has been inching toward this kind of eruption for a long time.


This week's update of the U.S. Drought Monitor found much of northeastern Colorado mired in an extreme drought. "Extreme" feels like an understatement. Denver International Airport has only seen 1.08" of rain since July 1st, making this the driest last-half of the year ever recorded.


Such a deep and prolonged drought desiccated vegetation, leaving woodlands and grasslands susceptible to the tiniest spark. Add in the fact that this has been one of the warmest Decembers on record in the region—Boulder's average high so far this month is 54.5°F, the fourth-warmest on record since the late 1800s—and you have the background ingredients for fires to spark and spread.

Then there was the wind. It was incredibly windy along the Front Range today. Downsloping winds screamed across the area on Thursday afternoon, with 80-100+ mph gusts recorded in and around Boulder for the bulk of the day. The combination of exceptional dryness, unusual warmth, and powerful winds allowed this fire to ignite without issue and spread with frightening speed.


The fire is so intense that the smoke plume is more than 100 miles long on radar.

Winds started to die down on Thursday evening, which should help crews get a handle on the flames and stop the inferno's progression into neighborhoods and business districts.

The kicker is that a winter storm warning is in effect for the affected areas. 


Beginning on Friday, the National Weather Service expects 6-8 inches of snow to fall across the Boulder area through Saturday afternoon, which should help to put out any hotspots that remain.

[Satellite: NOAA | Chart: xmACIS2]


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December 22, 2021

A Slug Of Moisture Heads For California And A Deep Chill Heads For Washington


It sure seems like the West Coast has gotten a decade's share of interesting weather over the past year. The active pattern will continue over the next couple of days as California and Oregon are socked with heavy rain and high-elevation snows. Meanwhile, a lobe of the polar vortex dipping into Western Canada will send bitterly cold air into the Pacific Northwest. Some spots could even see snow around Christmas.

Heavy Rain and Snow

Several surges of moisture will wash over the West Coast through the end of the week, bringing heavy rain to lower elevations and blockbuster snowfall to the mountain ranges. The National Weather Service says that 6-8 feet of snow is possible across California's mountains, with totals up to 10 feet possible in the highest peaks.


The precipitation forecast above (from the Weather Prediction Center) shows liquid precipitation totals from both rainfall and snowfall. That huge splotch of 10"+ of rain over the Sierra Nevada is entirely snow, showing how well the mountains will wring out every juicy drop of moisture heading their way.

Hefty rainfall totals are likely at lower elevations. All the major cities along the coast can expect several inches of rain over the next couple of days. This includes Los Angeles and San Diego, where rain is uncommon enough these days that a simple rain shower gets the breaking news treatment.

Watch out for the potential for flooding issues in vulnerable areas during heavy rainfall, especially areas that recently experienced wildfires. Burn scars make the ground impermeable, forcing rainwater to simply run off instead of absorbing into the ground.

A Cold Pattern Into 2022

Temperatures are set to dive across much of the Pacific Northwest heading into Christmas and likely lasting straight into the first week of January. Here's what the Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlook looks like for the next two weeks:


It's pretty rare to see that kind of confidence in below-normal temperatures in this part of the country!

It's about to get super cold on the Canadian Prairies. Temperatures will dive far below zero for the foreseeable future, with wind chill readings pushing -40°F at times by early next week. That surge of Arctic air isn't going to stop at the Rockies.

Frigid temperatures will spill down to sea level across the Pacific Northwest, where even Vancouver, B.C., is looking at the potential for significant snowfall heading into this weekend. Snow is possible even at lower elevations throughout western Washington, which is great news for Seattle-area snow lovers.

The National Weather Service in Seattle issued this graphic on Wednesday, highlighting their confidence in accumulating snow across lower elevations (including Seattle!) this weekend:


The real story here is the staying power of the cold air. It's going to get cold and stay cold for a long time. It's likely that Seattle will fall below freezing this weekend and not climb back above freezing for a week or longer. That's going to be rough on folks who don't have proper heating, proper warm clothes, or even adequate housing. Typical warming methods like public libraries, stores, and designated heating centers are going to be tricky with the latest coronavirus surge sweeping the country.

Remain mindful of the threat that extended exposure to cold weather can pose, and please check in on loved ones and neighbors you know or even suspect might not have adequate means of staying warm during this long winter chill.

[Model Graphic: Tropical Tidbits]


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December 15, 2021

Rare Mid-December Severe Weather Outbreak Targets Midwest On Wednesday Evening


Today is likely going to go down as one of those memorable days in weather history across the central United States as an intense low-pressure system sweeps from Colorado to northern Ontario. Downsloping winds behind the system have already gusted to 100+ mph in Colorado's Front Range, and damaging winds will spread into the Upper Midwest through the evening hours.

Just as serious, however, is the threat for severe weather that will target the Midwest late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.


The Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk for severe weather, a four out of five on the scale measuring the threat for severe storms, which is unprecedented in this part of the country for this late in the year.

This event is unsettling not only for the severe weather potential itself, but because it's unfolding across an area not accustomed to this magnitude of threat just a week-and-a-half before Christmas.

A warm and unstable airmass is in place across the Midwest. Des Moines, Iowa, broke its all-time December temperature record this morning with a reading of 71°F, and the temperature will likely climb higher before the storms arrive.

The storms are going to fire up and move very quickly. You can already see the beginnings of the squall line in central Kansas on the satellite image above, snagged around 1:15 p.m. CST.

Thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front sweeping along the southern half of the low. This squall line will have no trouble mixing intense winds down to the surface, potentially leading to widespread reports of 70+ mph wind gusts as it passes through.


There's enough wind shear present that discrete thunderstorms, as well as the squall line itself, will likely produce at least a couple of tornadoes, especially across parts of Iowa and Minnesota. A few tornadoes could be strong or long-lived, which is a terrifying prospect because much of the activity will unfold after sunset.


Make sure you have a way to receive warnings the moment they're issued. Check your smartphone and ensure that wireless emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings. Those alerts are proven life-savers and they're programmed to alert you the moment your location goes under a tornado warning.

Try to stay awake tonight if you're under the threat for severe weather. Don't go to bed until you're in the all-clear. If you have no choice but to go to bed before the storm threat is over (or if you just happen to doze off or not pay attention), make sure you've got a way to receive warnings when they're issued. Keep your phone by your bed. Check your weather radio and ensure that it's working. Keep a local news channel on high volume. Task a friend or relative with calling you if a warning is issued. Just make sure you've got a way to get to safety in a hurry if necessary.

Also, if you have tall trees or large tree limbs hanging near or over your home, consider avoiding those rooms during the gusty winds or severe thunderstorms. Trees falling into homes are the leading cause of wind-related injuries in a setup like this. 

Stay safe.

[Satellite: NOAA]


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December 14, 2021

A Quick-Hitting Storm Will Pack A Wallop With Destructive Winds, Severe Storms


A quick-hitting Colorado low will sweep over the central United States through Thursday and make a mess of things in its wake. The system will have it all: rain, snow, high winds, an extreme fire danger, and a risk for severe thunderstorms over parts of Iowa and Minnesota. 

Blink and you'll miss it. This storm is going to haul tail toward Canada, forming over Colorado on Wednesday morning and zoom into northern Ontario by the same time on Thursday morning. It's going to be quite the active 24 hours for a vast swath of the central United States, beginning with the threat for high winds and an extreme fire danger on the Plains.

Powerful Winds Likely on Wednesday


A dangerous situation is setting up along the path of the low from the Front Range straight through to the Great Lakes. Intense winds will easily mix down to the surface, bringing the threat for 60+ mph gusts that will topple trees, cause power outages, and toss around loose objects like Christmas decorations, patio furniture, trash cans, and grills.

The strongest winds will rake over the Front Range, where wind gusts could reach 100 mph in spots during the day on Wednesday. This is the graphic that NWS Denver made for the event, highlighting how dangerous conditions will be on Wednesday:


If the forecasts hold up, this will be a significant and memorable wind event for many folks in Colorado.

Strong winds will follow the path of the low as it races toward Canada. High wind watches and warnings are in place across the central Plains, a huge swath of the Midwest, and much of the Great Lakes in anticipation of damaging winds.

The criteria for wind advisories and high wind warnings varies from place to place, but it's safe to say that all of these regions will experience dangerous winds for a time on Wednesday and Thursday.

If you live in an area expecting powerful winds, remain mindful of tall trees or large tree limbs that loom over your home. Most wind-related injuries occur when trees or tree limbs fall into houses. If you have a big limb hanging over your bedroom, for example, consider avoiding that room as much as possible during the strong winds.

Prepare tonight for power outages tomorrow. Make sure your devices are charged and you have juiced-up flashlights within easy reach. (It's tough to feel around for flashlights batteries in the dark. Don't ask me how I know.)

High Fire Danger Accompanies The Winds

Powerful winds, warm temperatures, dry air, and ongoing drought conditions will all work together to create a high fire danger from the northern Texas Panhandle through central Kansas on Wednesday.


A high fire danger extends out to include communities from northeastern New Mexico to southern Nebraska. There aren't too many people who live in the affected areas, and I doubt many of you live there (thanks for reading if you do!), but it's the kind of day where any fire could quickly spiral out of control. One fire threatening one home is too many.

Severe Storms

The surge of moisture and warmer, unstable air on the south side of the low will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop over Iowa and Minnesota on Wednesday.


The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk for severe weather across much of Iowa and southern Minnesota. The strongest storms that form in and around this area could produce tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. It won't take much of a downdraft to pull those intense winds down to the surface.

As always, make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Take a moment to look at your phone and ensure that emergency alerts for tornado warnings are active, and that you have a way to hear warnings if you're asleep when rough weather moves through.

It's also worth noting that much of the area under that severe weather risk on Wednesday currently has several inches of snow on the ground. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could get a picture or two of a tornado traversing a snow-covered landscape. (It's not unprecedented!)



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December 11, 2021

After A Historic December Tornado Outbreak, Please Get A Weather Radio


A significant and likely historic tornado outbreak unfolded across portions of the central United States late Friday night, with multiple intense, long-track tornadoes touching down across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. One of the tornadoes was particularly devastating, killing dozens of people and cutting a path that might have measured more than 200 miles long.

This was a well-predicted and well-warned event.

Forecasters highlighted the potential for significant severe thunderstorms across the hardest-hit areas several days in advance. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather a day in advance, and upgraded to a moderate risk—a four out of five on the scale measuring the risk for severe weather—the morning before the tornadoes.
Most of the communities hit by the tornadoes had long lead times. Tornadic debris signatures were clear as day on radar for the most significant tornadoes, allowing forecasters to issue tornado warnings and tornado emergencies well in advance of the storms' arrival.

Despite the forecasts and the warnings, we still experienced an unthinkable human toll during Friday night's storms. The latest reports indicate that more than 100 people may have died in the tornadoes, which would make this the deadliest tornado event since late May 2011, which included the devastating tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri.

Last night's tornado outbreak included three nightmare scenarios wrapped into one. We dealt with:

1) strong tornadoes hitting populated areas;
2) strong tornadoes touching down at night when people are asleep;
3) strong tornadoes during the "off-season," just two weeks before Christmas.

Any one of those situations is heart-stopping by itself. But it's a recipe for disaster when you combine all three into one horrific night.

Steep tornado-related casualties were common in the days before Doppler weather radar and large-scale warning systems. A tragedy like last night's tornado outbreak is so viscerally jarring today specifically because that kind of early-day casualty rate is so rare now.

The best warnings and the best forecasts weren't able to save dozens of lives last night. There are lots of reasons why it happened. Meteorologists and social scientists will have to study this event long and hard to figure out what went wrong and what they can do better in the future to help stave off another mass-casualty event like this.

But there's one thing you can do right now that mitigates your risk of getting hurt or worse if you find yourself under the threat of tornadoes any day or any time of the year: please get a weather radio and check your cell phone's emergency alert settings.

Smartphones are the most common way we receive tornado warnings these days. Modern technology geotargets warnings to your location, sending you a noisy push alert the moment your location is placed within a tornado warning polygon. Wireless emergency alerts have been credited with saving countless lives over the past decade. 

The only problem is that people tend to switch these alerts off after one or two ill-timed notifications, usually for routine tests or child abduction alerts. Please take a minute today to go into your smartphone's settings and ensure these alerts are activated for tornado warnings. It could very well wake you up and save your life when you're least expecting it.

What if your device's battery dies, you don't have good reception, or you simply can't hear your phone while you're asleep or in the other room? That's when a NOAA Weather Radio can come in handy.

NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud tone and automatically read a warning out loud when your county goes under a severe weather watch or warning. They can provide you ample warning when severe weather is on the way even if your electricity and internet go out.

We live in the smart home era. You can switch on your coffee pot using your voice while you're sitting on the toilet. Something like a weather radio may seem like outdated technology. But...who cares? They work! They work.

It's best to have multiple layers of protection when it comes to something as serious as severe weather. Weather radios are a great tool to have in your home just in case you miss a warning on your cell phone and you're not aware of threatening weather heading in your direction.

Last night's storms were a horrific tragedy. It's going to take a long time to figure out what went wrong and how forecasters and communicators can improve their products and their reach in the future to prevent more tragedies like this one. Take the opportunity today to ensure that you and your family are protected from severe weather no matter what time or what day it strikes.


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December 5, 2021

Freakishly Warm Temperatures Bathe Much Of U.S. To Begin Sept...uh, December


It's been a freakishly warm start to December across much of the United States as above-seasonal temperatures wash across the country. Temperatures climbed into the 70s and 80s pretty far north for this time of year, the type of temperature anomaly that's both pleasant and unsettling this late in the year. While we're not likely to see such high highs in the coming weeks, it's going to stay pretty warm heading toward Christmas.

Warmth

It's been warm lately. 77°F in Oklahoma City. 81°F in Dallas. 78°F in Charlotte. 77°F in Atlanta. These recent highs are more reminiscent of September than December, and it's all thanks to a beefy upper-level ridge that's parked over much of the United States.

The same pattern that's brought us unusually dry and warm weather east of the Rockies has allowed one storm after another to slam into the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada, triggering all sorts of chaos in British Columbia over the past couple of weeks.


The pattern is in the process of breaking...briefly, at least.

A short-lived blast of Arctic air sweeping down from Canada will be our last shot of "real" winter air for a while, it seems. Temperatures will dive below zero up near the border on Monday morning. Meanwhile, it's nice enough to sleep with the windows open for about half of the country.

Colder air will continue to filter south over the next couple of days before promptly exiting and returning us to above-seasonal temperatures.

La Niña

This kind of a pattern is a hallmark of La Niña winters. A La Niña occurs when the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean grow colder than normal for several months at a time. This abnormally cool water can have a huge impact on the atmosphere above, which causes a ripple effect that affects weather patterns over Australia, Asia, and the Americas.

A typical winter would see the polar jet stream snaking around northern and central Canada while a subtropical jet stream moseys across the southern United States. Troughs and ridges in each jet stream bring us the active weather we come to expect during the cold season.

When we're in a La Niña pattern, though, both the subtropical and the polar jet streams dip south, taking the subtropical jet stream too far south to meaningfully affect U.S. weather. Meanwhile, the polar jet stream amplifies, allowing bigger troughs and ridges to sweep across North America. The end result is a warmer-than-normal pattern across much of the United States, with frosty temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and much of Western Canada.

If you've worn shorts in the last couple of days, congratulations: you've experienced this first-hand.

Above-Normal Heading Into Christmas


While our shorts-weather days are limited (unless you're one of those guys who wears basketball shorts all year—admit it), it's going to stay unseasonably warm for the next couple of weeks. 

The Climate Prediction Center's latest 8-14 day forecast shows a solid chance for above-normal temperatures for the entire contiguous United States outside of the West Coast.

This map doesn't show the intensity of the abnormally warm weather, but rather that forecasters are very confident that upper-level ridging will persist east of the Rockies and bring us unusually comfortable weather even as we're supposed to dive into the heart of winter.

Look on the bright side: it's great news if you hate snow, I guess!

[Satellite Image: NOAA]


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November 25, 2021

Another Drenching For The Pacific Northwest, Heavy Snow Headed For Northeast


It's been a remarkably quiet Thanksgiving across most of the United States. There are no severe thunderstorms to worry about. No massive nor'easters threatening to disrupt every major hub on the East Coast. The tropics are blissfully quiet. The only worrisome weather this holiday weekend seems confined to the two northern corners of the country, with another atmospheric river in the Pacific Northwest and heavy snow in interior New England.

Pacific Northwest Drenching

Yet another atmospheric river has its sights set on the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days. It's already raining over much of western Washington and southwestern British Columbia, and there's plenty more on the way over the next couple of days.

We've heard a lot about "atmospheric rivers" lately. An atmospheric river is an area of elevated moisture in the upper atmosphere that usually flows from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. These features act like reservoirs that storm systems and thunderstorms can tap into and wring out tremendous amounts of moisture.

A recent atmospheric river event brought catastrophic flooding to parts of British Columbia and Washington, the damage from which essentially cut off access to the Vancouver, B.C., metro area by land. The current bout of heavy rain and gusty winds won't be nearly as prolific as the recent storm, but lots of rain is on the way and the added stress will exacerbate the damage and effects.


The heavy rain will wash over Washington and British Columbia in several waves. The first wave is ongoing tonight through Friday. The next round of heavy precipitation will move ashore late Saturday and stick around through Monday. A third batch of heavy rain will follow soon after and arrive by the middle of the week.

The Weather Prediction Center calls for hefty rainfall totals across the region, especially at higher elevations. 5-10 inches of rain could fall along the Cascades and Coastal Range, which is likely going to compound the damage in hard-hit areas, especially in British Columbia. Lower rainfall totals are expected in the big cities.

Wintry New England


The opposite northern corner of the United States is the other area expecting the week's most active weather. A winter storm moving across Eastern Canada will bring heavy snow to parts of the interior Northeast through this weekend.

Several inches of snow are likely in higher elevations across much of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, with an inch or two likely at lower elevations. The heaviest totals are likely in northern Maine, where some communities could wind up with double-digit snowfall totals by Sunday. Bands of lake-effect snow will also beef up totals along the eastern shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

[Satellite Image: NOAA]


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November 10, 2021

Season's First Big Snowstorm Set To Hit Northern U.S. Plains, Canadian Prairies


It was a sunny 77°F here in beautiful central North Carolina today, and we're staring down the season's first major winter storm up north. (Sorry.) 

Some areas are on track for legitimate blizzard conditions once the snow arrives on Thursday and Friday. The heaviest accumulations will fall near and north of the border, where some areas are on track to see double-digit snowfall totals by the end of the storm on Friday. 

The impending winter storm is winding up this evening as a low-pressure system moves into the Upper Midwest. The system will strengthen in a hurry as it treks into Minnesota during the day on Thursday, producing heavy snow on the cold side of the low and heavy rain on the warm side to its south.

For areas expecting snow, conditions will deteriorate during the day on Thursday and likely peak in intensity Thursday night into Friday morning. Precipitation will taper off through the day on Friday as the system weakens and pulls out of the region.


The best chance for shovelable snow will follow close to the U.S./Canadian border, where some communities straddling the international line could see as much as a foot of snow by the end of the storm. Farther south, a few inches of snow is possible throughout much of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota, with the chance for a dusting pushing into the Minneapolis/St. Paul area.

My map uses the National Weather Service's snowfall forecast as of Wednesday night, which is why Canada is sadly excluded from all the fun. The Weather Network calls for a widespread swath of 8-16 inches of snow across southern Manitoba and northern Ontario. (Full disclosure—I occasionally contribute to TWN.)

Gusty winds are going to be a problem, as well. High wind warnings and wind advisories are in effect for much of the northern Plains as winds could gust 60+ MPH during the height of the storm. The combination of high winds and accumulating snow could lead to a period of blizzard conditions in northeastern South Dakota overnight Thursday into Friday.

[Model Image: Tropical Tidbits]


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November 5, 2021

A Pesky Coastal Storm Will Drench Parts Of The Southeast This Weekend

A developing nor'easter will bring dreary conditions to the coastal southeast this weekend, with cool temperatures, pouring rain, and driving winds making things miserable from northern Florida to eastern North Carolina.

The storm is already in its formative stages over northeastern Florida this evening. It's not all that impressive on satellite imagery—unless a bland deck of stratus clouds is your thing, then more power to you—but it's going to slowly grow more organized over the next day or so as it meanders up the coast.

The system and its worst conditions will peak during the day on Saturday, slowly winding down on Sunday as the system pulls away from shore.

This will be a nor'easter that doesn't affect the northeast. Nor'easters get their name from the northeasterly winds that buffet the coast. There's going to be plenty of that over the next few days. Winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph in parts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Strong and persistent onshore winds will lead to widespread coastal flooding from storm surge, especially around high tide. Coastal flood warnings are in effect from Jacksonville, Florida, to southeastern Virginia through the next couple of days.


Heavy rain is going to be a problem near the track of the storm. The bulk of the heavy rain will stay juuust offshore, but a few inches of rain are likely throughout coastal counties from northeastern Florida to eastern N.C.

These totals could inch higher if the storm tracks a little farther west than currently predicted. Any amount of heavy rain is a headache if it falls too quickly, but leaf-clogged gutters and storm sewers will increase the risk for street and parking lot flooding in some areas.


Saturday is going to be a raw and gloomy day for much of the southeast. Northeasterly winds will lead to cold air damming, a phenomenon where cold air pools up at the foot of the Appalachians because it's too dense to flow up and over the other side. Widespread high temperatures in the 50s are likely as far south as northern Florida. Conditions will warm up a bit on Sunday as the storm moves away.

[Satellite Image: NOAA]


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October 19, 2021

Multiple Rounds Of Heavy Rain Heading For The West Coast Through Early Next Week


An active pattern will send multiple waves of drenching rain into the West Coast this week, bringing measurable rainfall from the central California coast straight up through coastal British Columbia. The heaviest rain will fall at higher elevations—with heavy mountain snow likely in California—but just about everyone from Santa Barbara to Seattle has some much-needed rain on the way.

The impending bouts of heavy rain will be the result of several atmospheric rivers, or bands of enhanced upper-level moisture that flow from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. Atmospheric rivers act like reservoirs that can boost rainfall rates.

The latest 7-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center shows 5+ inches of rain falling across a huge portion of the West Coast. As usual, higher terrain near the water will see higher totals, while cities at lower elevations or in rain shadows will see lower rainfall amounts. High elevations are going to get thumped with a decent amount of snow by this time next week.

This is going to be a long-duration event with the potential for three or four rounds of precipitation through early next week.

The first wave of precipitation is arriving in northern California this evening, and it'll sweep through the Pacific Northwest throughout the day on Wednesday. The second round, associated with a front extending off a low heading into British Columbia, will arrive overnight Thursday and taper off through Saturday. A third big wave of precipitation, which is likely going to be the most significant of the bunch, will hit on Sunday and last through early next week.

Make sure wireless emergency alerts are activated on your smart phone in case flash flood warnings or evacuation orders are issued for your location. Stay mindful of the threat for landslides and mudslides. If you come upon a flooded roadway, it's not worth trying to drive across. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is before it's too late, and it only takes a few inches of moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it downstream.


A couple of crummy days on the West Coast are certainly more than worth it after such a hot and dry summer. 

A huge swath of the western United States remains mired in a significant drought. Last week's update of the U.S. Drought Monitor found that 87.18% of the entire state of California in an extreme or exceptional drought, the two highest categories on the scale. The impending rains and mountain snow will bring some beneficial relief to these areas. It won't erase the drought or undo the damage, but anything helps.


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October 12, 2021

A Hurricane's Remnants Could Bring Flash Flooding To Texas This Week


Tropical Storm Pamela will make landfall on Mexico's West Coast as a hurricane late Tuesday night and quickly push inland over the next few days. Mexico's rugged terrain will tear the storm to shreds in a hurry, but the system's remnant moisture will continue into the south-central United States and bring a threat for flash flooding to Texas over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center expects Pamela to regain hurricane strength before making landfall near Mazatlán overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The system will quickly fall apart as it grates up against the steep mountains of central Mexico. However, a deep reserve of tropical moisture will continue flowing into Texas on Wednesday and Thursday.


Pamela's remnant moisture will reach central Texas at the same time as a cold front sweeping in from the west. Add in even more moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico, and additional upper-level lift from the jet stream, and it sets the stage for very heavy rainfall across the region.

The latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches for much of central Texas on Wednesday and Thursday, with the possibility for 5+ inches of rain in some areas. This may not sound like much, but the ground here is much more impermeable than in places like Alabama or Virginia. 


The WPC issued a moderate risk for excessive rainfall (in other words, flash flooding) across the areas expecting the highest rainfall totals. A moderate risk is usually a decent signal that widespread flash flooding is likely.

As such, flash flood watches are in effect for a wide swath of Texas and a portion of southeastern Oklahoma. The watches include San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth. Flash floods are dangerous no matter what, but they're especially dangerous when they occur in heavily populated areas.

Driving through floodwaters is never worth it. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late—or if the road is even still there under the water—and it only takes a small amount of moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it downstream.


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October 9, 2021

Tornadoes Possible Sunday As Severe Weather Threat Targets The Southern Plains


A potent risk for severe weather will cover parts of the southern Plains on Sunday as a low-pressure system develops and moves across the area. It's been a relatively quiet year across the region as far as tornadoes go, but Sunday's threat could change that in a hurry. Make sure you're prepared for severe weather and have a way to receive warnings if you're in the area this weekend.

A low-pressure system will develop over western Texas during the day on Sunday and push across Oklahoma through the evening hours. Warm, humid air will provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms to bubble up, while ample wind shear will give those storms the kick they need to turn severe.

The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather for a large portion of Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas. Sunday's severe risk also extends outward to include Dallas-Fort Worth to the south and Joplin to the north.

Any of Sunday's severe thunderstorms could produce tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The greatest threat for tornadoes and large hail will occur in and around the enhanced risk area during the afternoon hours as the storms first develop. This initial batch of discrete thunderstorms will be able to maximize their interaction with instability and wind shear.

As the evening progresses, we'll likely see thunderstorms evolve into squall lines and bow echoes. The damaging wind threat will take over as the main risk when that happens, along with a threat for spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of any of the lines.

The threat for severe thunderstorms will continue after dark for many areas at risk on Sunday. Given that we tend to tune out after sunset, it's more important than ever to get severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. 

If you live in the region (or if you're visiting for the weekend), take a look at your phone's settings and ensure that wireless emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings and flash flood warnings. 


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October 4, 2021

A Stormy Pattern Will Bring Heavy Rain To The Southeastern U.S. This Week


Bouts of heavy rain will envelop parts of the southeastern United States over the next couple of days as a pokey upper-level low hangs around over the region. While we shouldn't see any organized severe weather, any of the thunderstorms that bubble up in the soupy airmass could produce heavy rainfall, leading to a risk for flash flooding in some spots.

The big weather story for most of the country this week is that the weather is going to be relatively boring. A huge upper-level ridge parked over the U.S. and Canada will keep things pretty warm for the next week, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s reaching as far north as Hudson Bay. (That's toasty for October!)


However, an upper-level low over the southeast will keep things interesting through the end of the week. This cutoff low will linger for the next couple of days, providing the lift needed to kick off several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Alabama to Virginia.

The Weather Prediction Center's latest rainfall forecast through next Monday shows a widespread region of 2-4 inches of rain falling from the northern Gulf Coast up the Appalachian foothills into Virginia. Some areas will see higher rainfall totals, especially if any productive thunderstorms park over one area for too long.

Flash flood watches are in effect for parts of Alabama and Georgia ahead of the heavy rainfall. It's already raining pretty hard in spots. A heavy storm delayed a race at Talladega earlier this afternoon, and we had one of the year's better storms today here in central North Carolina.


The rain is a welcome sight. It was a pretty dry September for much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states, with many areas coming in several inches of rain below average over the past 30 days. 

[Satellite Image: NOAA]


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September 27, 2021

Hurricane Sam Remains A Powerful Major Hurricane Over The Open Atlantic Ocean


Hurricane Sam spent more than 24 hours as a powerful category four storm this weekend as it churned out in the open Atlantic Ocean. The system was an absolute powerhouse for much of Saturday and Sunday, flirting with scale-topping category five intensity before the hurricane's structure stumbled on Sunday evening.

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Sam's maximum sustained winds had dropped a bit to 145 mph by 11:00 p.m. on Sunday night, down from a maximum intensity of 150 mph earlier in the day. It's likely weakened some more since then given its ragged appearance on satellite imagery.


Hurricane Sam was a textbook example of rapid intensification if there ever was one. The system grew from a newly formed tropical storm to a hurricane in just about 24 hours.

The storm underwent another period of explosive intensification that began Friday evening and didn't finally level out until Saturday night when the storm reached solid category four intensity.

One of the great ironies of powerful hurricanes is that they're incredibly fragile systems. One hiccup can send them spiraling into a mess (can't we all relate these days?). That's what happened to Sam on Sunday night.

It's likely that Sam is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) right now, which occurs when the storm's eyewall degrades and is replaced by another, larger eye.

An ERC weakens a storm's winds and allows its minimum pressure to rise, all while redistributing its energy farther out from the center of the storm. This allows the hurricane to grow in size before potentially restrengthening once a new, stable eye emerges.


Hurricane Sam is one of the most impressive storms we've seen in the Atlantic Ocean in quite a while, and that's saying something given all the nonsense we've been through recently. It's a guilt-free gawk fest, one of the rare hurricanes in recent years we can admire without immediately cringing in fear.

Sam was a picturesque hurricane at its peak. The storm had a clear, bold eye that was surrounded by a dense core of ferocious thunderstorms fueling the system's immense power.

The near-symmetrical core of the storm vented into the upper levels of the atmosphere with a healthy outflow adorned by a beautiful plume of cirrus clouds that radiate clockwise from the eye of the storm. A hurricane's outflow exhausts air away from the eyewall so the storm is free to gather as much instability as it can from the warm ocean below.


The hurricane doesn't look that impressive anymore. Between the eyewall replacement cycle and possibly some wind shear throwing it off balance, Sam looks a little worse for wear tonight. Despite the storm's appearance, it remains a major hurricane.


Hurricane Sam is traveling around a large ridge of high pressure parked over the central Atlantic Ocean. It's crawling at just 7 mph, a relatively slow speed that's the result of weak steering currents hustling the storm along. 

Forecasters expect Sam to continue slowly lumbering along a northwesterly path that takes it safely clear of the Leeward Islands over the next couple of days.

While the storm will miss the Caribbean and likely won't have any direct impacts to the U.S. East Coast, this predicted path would bring the hurricane close to Bermuda by next weekend. We also have to watch where it goes from there for potential impacts in Atlantic Canada by the first week of October.


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September 19, 2021

Tropical Storm Rose Forms, Hurricane Season Set To Exhaust The List Of Names...Again


Tropical Storm Rose formed way out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday evening, becoming the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season's 17th named storm. We seem to be on track to exhaust this season's official list of names for only the third time, which would rank this year among 2005 and 2020 in terms of hyperactivity. 

Peter and Rose


There's not much to say about these storms. Peter and Rose (which sounds like they could be an awful 60s folk duo) are both puttering away out in the Atlantic Ocean. Peter is a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands, while Rose is out near the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Neither of the two storms is very impressive. Peter is struggling against wind shear and Rose is on a doomed track that will terminate with its demise by the end of next week.

Both of the storms should fall apart before they reach land, and neither will come anywhere close to the United States or Puerto Rico.

We're (Probably) Going To Run Out Of Names


Barring some unprecedented and unforeseen shutdown of all tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean for the rest of the year, it's extremely likely that we're going to run out of names again.

We only have four names left on 2021's list after Rose: Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda.

One of the biggest "whoa" moments of the historic and hyperactive 2020 hurricane season is that we ran out of names by the middle of September when Tropical Storm Wilfred formed.

There are only 21 names on each season's list of hurricane names. We skip the letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z for lack of suitable replacements should one be retired.

If 22 or more storms ever developed in a single year, the plan was to fall back on the Greek alphabet to name each additional storm.

We burned through nine Greek letters in 2020, including five (!) major hurricanes and two—Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota—required retirement. The tracking map was an impossible mess to follow.

There was no plan to have to retire Greek-named storms. After all, up until 2020, storms at the very end of the list were usually weak afterthoughts that formed in November or December.

Add in the fact that several Greek letters sound the same (Zeta, Eta, and Theta each overlapped at one point) and it's no surprise that the fallback names weren't long for this world.


As a result, the World Meteorological Organization met earlier this year and decided to ditch the Greek alphabet and invent a supplemental list of hurricane names to fall back on if we ever had 22 or more named storms in a single year. (They created a similar list for the eastern Pacific basin.)

If (really, when) we reach Wanda, we'll roll over to the supplemental list for the remainder of the 2021 hurricane season, beginning with the name Adria and working down from there.



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