January 30, 2021

Oh No. Oh No. Here Comes The Snow.

A decent nor'easter will sweep across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next couple of days, bringing heavy snow to folks from western North Carolina through Atlantic Canada. This could be the biggest snowstorm to affect the Washington D.C. area in two years. The storm will unfold in two parts, the first affecting the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday, with the stronger storm—and highest snow totals—sweeping across coastal communities of the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
Source: Tropical Tidbits

This bout of snow and ice is really two different storms creating one big mess. You can see the evolution of the two storms using the model image above, from Tropical Tidbits, which shows the GFS model's guidance from Saturday night through Tuesday evening.

The first low-pressure system moved across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, bringing heavy snow to Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Some lucky folks (or unlucky folks, depending on your level of Winter Hatred) will see more than half a foot of snow by the time the precipitation ends. This system will slide into the Mid-Atlantic overnight Saturday into Sunday and produce ice over parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia while laying down a blanket of snow in the D.C. and Baltimore areas.

A pre-event band of snow already moved through N.C. and Virginia on Saturday evening, dropping a quick dusting to inch of snow across the affected areas before the main storm moves in later on. I took the pic at the top of the post just before publishing this. I stopped writing to go outside and sample the quality and purity of the snow. You know...for science.

That first storm will start to wind down as the upper-level trough sharpens over the East Coast. The resulting classic trough will generate a classic nor'easter off the coast of New Jersey. Snow will crank in earnest beginning on Monday morning as the low develops and takes over. Fairly heavy snow rates, possibly a few inches an hour, are likely across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island as the nor'easter deepens. Snow will taper off on Monday night and Tuesday from south to north as the storm moves off toward Atlantic Canada.

Here's National Weather Service's snowfall forecast from Saturday evening through Tuesday evening, including snow from the first storm to the west and most of the subsequent storm back east:

There's pretty good agreement between the offices that the greatest snowfall totals will occur during the peak of the nor'easter. Someone will wind up getting a foot or more by the end of the storm. As always, tiny changes in the track of the storm could result in big differences in the final accumulations. If the storm moves a bit west or east, the axis of heavy snow will follow suit.

Ice will be a problem farther south. Winter storm warnings are in effect for freezing rain in southern Virginia and parts of the North Carolina Piedmont (which is where I live). It'll be cold enough at the surface for snow, but an intrusion of warm air a few thousand feet above the surface will force snowflakes to melt into liquid raindrops. These raindrops will fall into that subfreezing air at the surface and freeze on contact with exposed surfaces. Some areas could see as much as one-quarter of an inch of ice accretion, which could lead to tree damage and power outages.

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January 26, 2021

California Braces For Strong Adjectives As Rain, Snow, Wind Overspread State

A barrage of descriptive words will wash over California over the next couple of days as strong winds, heavy rain, and huge snows promise to do a number on the state's drought. While rain and snow are a  good thing, too much all at once can cause serious issues. Mammoth snowfall totals in the mountains will make travel impossible and lead to a high risk for avalanches, while heavy rain at lower elevations could trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

The Setup

A growing trough in the jet stream will continue to sharpen as it approaches the West Coast overnight into Wednesday. This trough, along with a cold front extending off a low-pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest, will direct an atmospheric river right at California.
Source: Tropical Tidbits
Despite its name, an atmospheric river isn't something made up to sound good on a chyron. The term describes a narrow band of enhanced moisture in the atmosphere that flows from tropical latitudes to the middle latitudes. In this case, the atmospheric river will drag tropical moisture from the central Pacific and focus it over much of California over the next couple of days. 

The amount of moisture in the atmosphere plays a huge role in how much rain or snow can fall over a certain area. Rain showers, snow bands, and thunderstorms can tap into an atmospheric river like a reservoir and condense that rich moisture into a tremendous amount of precipitation.

The result will be impressive.


Source: NWS Sacramento

The National Weather Service's snowfall forecast for the highest peaks in the Sierra calls for 80 to 100 inches of snow by the end of the storm, with locally higher snowfall totals possible. Some areas could see more than 10 feet of snow by the time things calm down.

That much snow all at once will make travel all but impossible across roads that traverse the mountains, and it'll lead to a high risk for avalanches as much of the fresh snowpack will be unstable. It's not all bad, though. Mountain snowpack is a significant source of freshwater for many communities around California. This kind of snow will go a long way toward reinforcing some of that water supply after the region's slipped deeper into drought over the last year.


Lower elevations will experience rain—and plenty of it. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely from western Washington straight down the coast through southern California. Higher elevations below the freezing line could see double-digit rainfall totals by the end of the storm. An inch or two of rain is possible all the way down in Los Angeles through this weekend.

This much rain falling this quickly will lead to a risk for flash flooding. The greatest risk for flash flooding will exist from about Monterey to San Luis Obispo, but a risk for excessive rainfall will exist from the Bay Area east to about Sacramento, and down the coast through Santa Barbara. 

Never try to drive across a flooded roadway. It only takes a couple of inches of fast-moving water to lift a vehicle and carry it downstream. It's impossible to judge how deep the water is until you're already in it. Sometimes, floodwaters can wash away the road and obscure the fact that there isn't a road there anymore until it's too late.

The risk for flash flooding and mudslides is greater around the region's many burn scars. Wildfires destroy the soil over which they burn, making the soil virtually impermeable. Since the water can't penetrate into the ground, it oversaturates the topsoil and triggers a mudslide. Debris flows, flash floods that carry ash, rocks, and burned vegetation, can destroy roads and buildings downstream from the loaded floodwaters.

Gusty Winds

If it's a storm in California, it's going to be windy. High winds are possible across much of the state through Wednesday. Wind gusts as high as 60 MPH in some areas could easily knock down trees and power lines, especially where heavy rain loosens the soil and makes it harder for trees and poles to stand up to the stress of the wind.

[Satellite Image: NOAA]

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January 20, 2021

A Sharpie Can't Cover Up The Last Four Years

Today is the first flash of warmth after a long, cold winter. It's been a...trying...four years. Even the weather didn't make it out unscathed. Storms played a role in shaping some of the most important events of Donald Trump's term in office, ranging from a white lie on the day of his inauguration to a simple error in a presidential tweet that launched a coverup that almost toppled the leadership of NOAA. 

The National Weather Service, probably the most agreeable federal agency in the entire government, became a focal point several times during Donald Trump's four years in office. The federal weather agency survived a drawn-out attempt to install a former rival as its leader, the threat of steep budget cuts, a lengthy government shutdown, and a brazen assault on the agency by the executive branch launched over two words in a tweet.

It's not a partisan statement to point out that Donald Trump lies frequently. The outgoing president told thousands upon thousands of lies during his four years in office. Many of the lies were intentional. Many of the lies were a case of an apparent misremembering of details or his characteristic embellishment and exaggeration. But Trump's most harrowing and consequential lies were told with purpose, and those were the lies that caused the most damage. 

Intrepid fact-checker Daniel Dale, who analyzed just about every public statement Trump made while in office, started his top-line review of Trump's lies with one succinct summary: "Trump began his presidency by lying about the weather." 

The Inauguration

Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2017, is best remembered for the White House's weeks-long effort to convince the American public that the crowd on the National Mall was much, much bigger than it looked in photographs. The lie—which eventually snowballed into an order for the National Parks Service to stop tweeting after they contradicted the lie about the inaugural crowd size—wasn't the first lie told about the inauguration.

Before White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told reporters that Trump's inauguration had the biggest audience in the history of presidential swearings-in, "period," the president himself told the audience at an inaugural ball an embellished story about how it didn't start raining until he had finished his inaugural address.

Except, it did rain during his address. We know it rained because there's video of it raining about a minute into the speech. There were raindrops on Trump's suit jacket and everyone started putting on ponchos behind him. But, there Trump stood, waxing poetic about how it didn't rain during his speech even though everyone could see it rain.

It was a tiny lie. But it demonstrated how even the truth about the small things, the demonstrably false things we all saw for ourselves and knew to be false, were up for grabs.

It was the tiny lies that paved the way for the big ones.

The Sharpie Map

In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already a category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!
Donald Trump mistakenly tweeted the morning of September 1, 2019, that Alabama was one of the states that would be hit "(much) harder than anticipated" by Hurricane Dorian as the scale-topping storm came dangerously close to Florida.

The only problem was that Alabama wasn't actually anywhere near Hurricane Dorian's predicted path. This was the forecast map issued by the National Hurricane Center the morning Trump sent out that tweet:

After Trump's tweet, a flood of calls to the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama, prompted the office to use its own Twitter account to say that the state was not in Hurricane Dorian's path. Even though forecasters didn't know Trump was the reason people started getting antsy, the administration took their statement as a direct slight against the president, sending the executive branch on an increasingly bizarre crusade to "prove" Trump right that ended with a threat to fire NOAA's leadership if they didn't issue a statement renouncing the forecasters' statement.  

It's going to be hard for future generations to understand how the Hurricane Dorian dustup came to symbolize Trump's sole term in office. The context is that Trump rarely admits when he's wrong, and hardly ever corrects smaller mistakes, because doing so would be a sign of weakness, and he will not say or do anything that casts himself in a weak light.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, his extreme aversion to using unfavorable words to describe himself resulted in an Arrested Development-like exchange when he told reporters that he'd "tested very positively for the coronavirus." After reporters pushed him for clarification, he backtracked by saying he "tested positively toward negative" to describe testing negative for the virus. The word "negative" was so...well, negative...to him that he couldn't even bring himself to say that he didn't have the virus.

Source: Twitter/@WhiteHouse

And to that end, in the aftermath of a seemingly simple error in one tweet, the administration stepped up and kept escalating the situation until Trump's mistake became truth in an alternate reality.

The effort culminated in Trump himself  scribbling on a three-day-old printout of a forecast map to crudely extend the forecasters' cone of uncertainty to include Alabama. The president's Sharpie-scrawled bubble, looking like an eye on a potato that sat in the pantry too long, was the perfect encapsulation of the mindset that drove these last couple of years: the truth is what Trump says it is.

The coverup and eventual fallout from Trump's mistake-turned-Sharpiegate competed against the fact that there was a major hurricane just a few dozen miles off the coast of the third-most populous state in the country. Forecast updates and preparedness information became sub-headlines to stories about the president forcing the government to help him avoid admitting he made a mistake in a tweet.

The administration's handling of Trump's tweet about Hurricane Dorian was perhaps the most telling incident of the entire presidency. A similar situation played out as the coronavirus pandemic tumbled out of control. Trump downplayed the virus at first, boasting to reporters that the virus would disappear after just a few dozen cases. Case totals and deaths continued to soar throughout the final year of his presidency even as he went out of his way to play it down.

NOAA Administrator

It wasn't just the campaign to preserve the president's self-image. The federal weather agency came under a political threat as well. The president nominated Barry Myers, then-CEO of AccuWeather, to become the Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, or the administrator of NOAA.

AccuWeather employs many meteorologists who are genuinely good-hearted people who do honest work to keep their audiences informed and prepared. AccuWeather's leadership, unfortunately, has made some questionable decisions over the years, not the least of which was the company's not-so-subtle campaign to vanquish the National Weather Service as a competitor.

Pushback to Myers' nomination, which included concern about potential conflicts of interest as well as larger concern about the company's history of viewing the National Weather Service as unfair competition, was swift—and it actually seemed to make a difference. The Republican-controlled Senate never advanced Myers to the floor for a vote despite the president having nominated him three times: first in 2017, then on resubmission in 2018 and 2019. (Presidential nominations normally expire when the Senate adjourns at the end of each year.)

Myers ultimately withdrew his own name from nomination in November 2019, citing health issues that would make it difficult for him to serve in the role. The position was then filled by Dr. Neil Jacobs, who headed the agency as acting administrator. Trump's presidency was the first time since the position was created in 1970 that the Senate never acted to confirm an administrator for NOAA.

The Shutdown

There was also the time that National Weather Service meteorologists had to miss a paycheck because Trump wouldn't sign a bill to fund the government unless Congress paid for a wall along the border with Mexico.

The federal government ran out of money on December 22, 2018. Usually, if Congress can't agree on a budget, they'll pass a temporary funding agreement while they work on a deal. Sometimes, though, negotiations break down and the funding runs out. When the funding runs out, the government shuts down.

Historically, shutdowns only last a couple of days while Congressional leadership and the White House work out a deal.

But this one went on. And on.

And on.

When the federal government shuts down, most of the government's public-facing services grind to a halt. National parks close and more than 800,000 employees are sent home and told not to return to work until the funding returns. But there are so many essential employees who have to come to work every day during a shutdown without knowing when they'll receive their next paycheck.

The 35-day shutdown became the longest in American history. The shutdown dragged on for so long that essential federal employees—including forecasters at the National Weather Service—missed a paycheck. These hardworking people had to scramble to make ends meet while still working hard as ever to keep the public informed of hazards coming their way.

It never needed to happen. Funding bills passed the House and the Senate, but the president dug in and insisted he wouldn't sign a budget without full funding for a border wall. The standoff continued through the last half of January 2019, at which point the president relented, signed the bill, and the folks at the National Weather Service finally got the pay they worked for.

The 2020 Budget

The president's budget proposal for 2020 included slashing more than $75,000,000—seventy-five million dollars!—in funding to the National Weather Service. That's a lot of money.

Such a deep slash in funding would have kneecapped an agency that was already stretched thin by understaffing, making it that much harder to fulfill its responsibilities to the American public. The plan would have fired nearly 250 meteorologists, cut funding for weather stations and upper-air weather balloon launches, and ended a valuable research project to study tornadoes in the southeastern United States.

Thankfully, the cuts never came to pass.

Hurricane Harvey

It wasn't always a lie that caused an issue. Donald Trump issued a controversial pardon to the former sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, while Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas in August 2017. He announced the pardon as the hurricane made landfall because he "assumed ratings would be far higher" since people were already watching storm coverage on the news. Hurricane Harvey caused more than $100 billion in damages and killed nearly 70 people.

Puerto Rico

Donald Trump and his administration delayed meaningful aid to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria devastated the island. The storm killed thousands of people and severed electricity to much of the island for months after the storm. The president said that he believed the death toll was inflated to make him look bad, conditioned billions of dollars in disaster aid on political goals like prohibiting the island from raising the minimum wage, and implied that further aid to the island was contingent upon the territory's political leadership showing "appreciation" for him.


The weather for Trump's arrival in Palm Beach, Florida, will be sunny with a gentle breeze, low humidity, and a temperature around 70°F.

A little while later, Joe Biden will take office in Washington under clear skies and gusty winds. It'll be chilly, but warmer weather is right around the corner.

[Top Photo: Flickr/White House]

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January 18, 2021

High, Dry Winds Could Spark An Off-Season Fire Threat Across Parts Of California On Tuesday

A critical fire risk and life-threatening rip currents are possible across parts of California over the next couple of days as high winds begin to blow across the Golden State. High wind warnings are in effect for much of southern California, as well as high elevations in the Sierra and Bay Area, in anticipation of gusts that could exceed 60 MPH at times.

Source: PivotalWeather.com

A strong area of high pressure over the northern Rocky Mountains will push against a developing low-pressure system off the coast of southern California. The tight pressure gradient between the two systems will generate powerful offshore winds that will peak on Tuesday before tapering off on Wednesday night. 

The greatest risk for high winds will exist on Tuesday, when gusts could easily exceed 60 MPH in areas under a high wind warning. Winds that strong can do damage in their own right, knocking down trees, power lines, and blowing around loose objects in backyards and on patios.

Even though we're well outside of traditional fire season in California, which typically peaks in the fall months, the combination of several favorable ingredients will lead to potentially dangerous conditions for wildfire ignition and growth.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest fire weather outlook shows an elevated risk for fire weather conditions from the eastern Bay Area down to the border with Mexico, and a critical risk for fire weather conditions for higher elevations from San Luis Obispo to northern San Diego County.

A fire consumed a few hundred acres of land this weekend in Thousand Oaks, California, and a handful of small fires broke out near Sacramento on Monday. 

While it's unusual to have this kind of fire risk in the middle of January, it's not too much of a surprise given the predicted conditions across the region right now. Temperatures will climb above normal across the affected areas. The strong high-pressure system to the northeast will help generate those powerful winds that could spread any flames in a hurry.

And it's dry. Very dry. While the worst drought is farther inland toward the deserts and Intermountain West, almost the entire state of California is mired in some level of drought, according to last week's update of the United States Drought Monitor. Dry vegetation, low humidity, relatively warm conditions, and high winds are a breeding ground for fast-spreading fires.

As if the risk for tree damage, power outages, and wildfires wasn't enough, the strong winds will also lead to a high risk for rip currents off beaches up and down the state's coastline. A rip current is a swift current of water that pulls away from the beach, generated by waves that hit the beach head-on.

Rip currents are dangerous not because they suck you underwater—that's just made-for-TV dramatics—but because they quickly pull you away from the coastline. The vast majority of injuries and deaths in rip currents are caused by the victim panicking or quickly becoming exhausted trying to swim against the current to get back to shore. 

The best practice, of course, is to avoid going in the ocean when there's a risk for rip currents. If you ever find yourself caught in a rip current, tread water and calmly signal for help. If you're not a strong swimmer, tread water until help arrives or the rip current releases you so you can paddle back to shore. It will eventually release you. If you're able to swim, don't try to swim against the current—it's too strong. You need to swim parallel to the coastline until you're out of the current, and then swim back to the beach.

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January 11, 2021

East Texas Enjoys And/Or Despises Its Biggest Snow In Years

A rare snowstorm blanketed parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this weekend with more snow than some communities have seen in decades. The unusually robust winter storm left behind snow from western Texas to northern Alabama, bringing a brief dose of winter to an otherwise temperate region. 

The story behind this system is largely "right place at the right time." It takes the perfect ingredients coming together just right to allow precipitation to fall as snow even in colder climates, but it's that much harder to get the ingredients for snow to line up across the far southern reaches of the United States. It's just tough for cold air to overcome the warmth of the southerly winds that dominate this region of the country. Freezing rain and the occasional bout of sleet are more common once you get close to the Gulf of Mexico. 

Cold air briefly managed to win out for a change and it brought a healthy dose of snow to areas certainly not used to it. Waco, Texas, recorded 4.4 inches of snow on Sunday, which was their largest one-day snowfall total in 39 years—it hasn't snowed like this there since January 13, 1982. In fact, this was the city's fifth-largest snowstorm since records began at the airport there in 1930.

This morning's snowfall analysis from the National Weather Service showed a remarkable blanket of snow stretching from the Front Range to northern Alabama, where some folks saw a dusting of snow before precipitation switched over to rain. More than half a foot of snow fell across parts of western Texas. 

There's a weird data glitch on the map above that makes it looks like the border between Texas and Louisiana around the Toledo Bend Reservoir saw something like a foot of snow. That's just some wonkiness in the National Weather Service's data. For posterity's sake, here's NWS Shreveport's map showing snowfall totals in that area:

See? It's a good amount, but not that much. They wish! (Or, maybe not.)

Usually a southern snowstorm like this would make it all the way across the south and affect Georgia and the Carolinas, too, but this system wasn't long for this world. The low that produced the system fell apart into a disjointed mess of clouds and showers before it could bring any hint of January to the rest of the southeast.

After a couple more chilly nights, temperatures will rebound to the 50s and 60s across the winter-afflicted areas through the rest of this week.

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