Tornado Threat Increases For I-95 Corridor Between D.C. And Philly On Wednesday

An enhanced risk for severe weather will exist around the Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia areas on Wednesday as the remnants of Hurricane Ida move through the region. There's enough wind shear that the strongest thunderstorms that form in the region could produce tornadoes.

Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather—a three on the five-category scale measuring the threat for severe thunderstorms—for the I-95 corridor stretching from northern Virginia to southern New Jersey, including parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, and Delaware.

Tornadoes will be the predominant risk. Severe thunderstorms in the risk areas could also produce damaging wind gusts.

The threat will be greatest during the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday.

While the enhanced risk area will see the best environment for tornadoes, a risk for tornadoes on Wednesday will extend as far to the south as the Charleston, S.C., area, and as far to the north as Nantucket.

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Tropical Depression Ida (and soon to be "Remnants of Ida") spent Tuesday swirling over the Tennessee Valley. The system will continue heading toward the northeast over the next couple of days.

The system is undergoing extratropical transition, which means it's losing its tropical characteristics and transitioning into an everyday type of low-pressure system that's powered by upper-level winds and has surface fronts.

There's still plenty of wind shear on the eastern side of the system, which is common for landfalling tropical cyclones. This wind shear allows thunderstorms to develop rotation that can produce tornadoes.

The remnants of hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast are infamous for the tornado potential these systems can bring to the Mid-Atlantic. If tomorrow's forecast pans out, Ida's remnants will be no exception.

SOURCE: Tropical Tidbits

The graph above reveals why there's an enhanced risk for tornadoes around the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

This is a model simulation of the data we get from weather balloons, looking at temperature, moisture, and winds through a vertical slice of the atmosphere. This particular graphic is for the area around Wilmington, Delaware on Wednesday evening.

If you look at the hodograph on the top-right side of the image, you'll see a long line that hooks clockwise as it spirals out on the graph.

That tells us that winds are picking up speed and veering clockwise with height—the type of shear that makes supercell thunderstorms possible.

Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Check your cell phone's emergency alerts feature and make sure they're activated for tornadoes. Tropical-influenced tornadoes can happen quickly, and they can grow quite strong.

A threat for tornadoes isn't the only concern we'll have to deal with on Wednesday. The system's ample tropical moisture will produce widespread heavy rainfall from the Appalachians to coastal New England over the next couple of days.

Rainfall totals of 3-5" will be common, with locally higher amounts where training thunderstorms develop. This heavy rainfall will lead to a potential for flash flooding across a large stretch of the region.

SOURCE: WPC

The Weather Prediction Center issued a high risk for excessive rainfall (read: flash flooding) on Wednesday across portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. A high risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC is relatively rare, and it's indicative of high confidence in the potential for widespread flash flooding. 

Stay alert for flash flood warnings in addition to tornado warnings. Never try to drive across a flooded roadway. Many people die every year when they drive into a flood and drown. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is before it's too late.

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Ida's Remnants Are A Flash Flood Threat In The Mid-Atlantic And Northeast This Week

The remnants of once-powerful Hurricane Ida will bring a threat for flash flooding and tornadoes to much of the eastern U.S. over the next couple of days.

While the storm's winds are a mere shadow of their 150 MPH fury when the storm made landfall in Louisiana on Sunday, the system is still a major rainmaker and will lead to a threat for tornadoes through midweek.

Ida's remnants will pass over the Tennessee Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the end of the week.

A trough moving over the Great Lakes will catch up with Ida's remnants by the middle of the week. This trough will help the system redevelop into an extratropical cyclone, or your typical, everyday type of low-pressure system.

The combination of Ida's tropical moisture and all the extra lift from the trough and developing surface low is a recipe for very heavy rainfall. It's the atmospheric version of wringing out a soaked washcloth.

Source: WPC

Right now, the Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk for excessive rainfall (read: flash flood potential) across a wide swath of the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the southern Northeast. 

The agency's latest rainfall forecast shows widespread totals of 3-5 inches falling along the path of ex-Ida. Locally higher totals are possible, especially where training thunderstorms produce high rainfall rates.

Stay alert for flash flooding during and after heavy rainfall. If any of your daily routes are prone to flooding, map out an alternate route ahead of time so you can avoid danger.

Many people die every year when they drive into a flood and drown. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and sometimes there's not even a road under the water anymore. 

Flooding won't be ex-Ida's only hazard. There's still enough wind shear on the eastern side of the system to allow thunderstorms to begin rotating.

We'll see a tornado risk across parts of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days. This risk is greatest in Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, but tornadoes are possible as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula through Wednesday.

Tropical tornadoes happen quickly, sometimes with reduced tornado warning lead time. Make sure your cell phone's wireless emergency alerts are activated so you can receive a tornado warning the moment one is issued.

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Ida Will Bring Strong Winds, Flooding Rain Far Inland Over The Next Few Days

Hurricane Ida made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Sunday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, making this one of the most intense hurricanes to ever hit the United States. The system took its time winding down over southeastern Louisiana. Ida will weaken as it moves inland, but widespread power outages and flooding rains are likely over the next few days.

Ida joins a most unwanted list of hurricanes that rapidly intensified all the way up to landfall, a once-rare pattern that we've seen with many powerful storms—Harvey, Michael, Laura, Zeta, Sally—over the past couple of years.

The hurricane made landfall twice, first in Port Fourchon—a major oil and gas hub in the region—with 150 mph winds, then again a few hours later near Galliano with winds of 145 mph.

NWS New Orleans received a fairly reliable report from Port Fourchon of sustained winds of 149 mph with a gust to 172 mph during Ida's landfall:

Here is the observation we received. pic.twitter.com/rJiCpJ9Kmg

— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) August 30, 2021

Hurricane Ida took its sweet time winding down due to the brown ocean effect, the tendency for warm, moist soils to mimic warm ocean temperatures that fuel a hurricane.

Calling Louisiana's wetlands "land" is a bit of an oversell. It's basically the ocean on a good day, and that's before a high-end category four hurricane covered the region in hot storm surge. As a result, Hurricane Ida remained a major hurricane for nearly 10 hours after landfall. The satellite image above showed the storm with a fully clear eye about four hours after landfall.

It's going to be a while before we get a full picture of just what happened in southeastern Louisiana. Early indications are that "not good" is a solid description of events tonight.

New Orleans is entirely without power after the transmission lines that feed the city fell during the hurricane's high winds. There are reports of significant flooding in some communities nearby from a combination of torrential rains and storm surge.

The system is over solid land now and it's winding down fast. The National Hurricane Center said in its 11:00 p.m. advisory that the storm was now a category two with 105 mph winds. It should be a tropical storm by Monday morning, a depression by Monday night, and "remnants of Ida" by this time on Tuesday.

Even though the system is weakening, it's still a very strong hurricane. Damaging winds will extend far inland. The intensity of the tree damage and power outages may shock people as far inland as Jackson, Mississippi.

Ida's torrential rains will lead to a threat for widespread flash flooding over the next few days. Rainfall totals of 3-5" will be common from Mississippi to Massachusetts and just about everywhere in between. Exact rainfall totals will differ and shift depending on the storm's ultimate track, but it's safe to say that Ida's remnants will bring drenching rains to a large portion of the eastern United States through next week.

A risk for tornadoes will continue on the eastern side of Ida over the next couple of days. The threat is maximized in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where small supercells can tap into ample wind shear and produce fast tornadoes.

Tropical tornadoes happen quickly, sometimes reducing tornado warning lead time. Make sure your cell phone's wireless emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings so you get a warning right away.

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Hurricane Ida On Track To Hit Louisiana As A Powerful Hurricane On Sunday

Hurricane Ida is still on track to hit Louisiana as a powerful hurricane on Sunday. The storm is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico tonight. The storm has a small eye surrounded by deep convection, a scary look on satellite imagery that often precedes a jump in the storm's strength.

The forecast hasn't changed much today. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for all of southeastern Louisiana as Ida charges a path toward the coastline.

New Orleans is in a very bad spot right now. Any jog to the east in the storm's track will make conditions much worse there.

As I said yesterday, "New Orleans in the eastern eyewall of a major hurricane" is nightmare fuel for meteorologists because of the potential for storm surge and wind damage. (I wrote a post for The Weather Network tonight discussing why Louisiana is so vulnerable to hurricanes.)

The forecasters at NWS New Orleans didn't pull their punches when they wrote tonight's forecast discussion.

Once sustained tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this level and if it doesn't happen then we should all count our blessings.

The details remain the same as the last couple of days. 

Ida will push a tremendous storm surge into portions of southwestern Louisiana, which could top 10 feet in some spots. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is possible as far east as the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay.

Torrential rains in Louisiana will lead to widespread flash flood emergencies. The storm surge and intense winds will hamper rescue efforts. Heavy, flooding rains will fall along Ida's path through the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic states. 3-5 inches of rain is a sure bet north through Kentucky, with a couple of inches of rain possible as far east as Washington, Philadelphia, and New York.

Intense wind damage is likely where Ida makes landfall. The NHC keeps using the phrase "potentially catastrophic wind damage" to describe the threat, which is no small thing coming from a very cautious and reserved group of experts. The hurricane's large and growing wind field will extend far to the west and the east of the point of landfall.

Damaging winds are likely well inland, which is why tropical storm warnings stretch deep into central Mississippi. The widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages far inland from the point of landfall will catch many folks by surprise.

A threat for tornadoes will follow the hurricane inland. The greatest threat exists to the east of the storm, covering parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle. Tropical tornadoes happen fast, often reducing lead time. Make sure your phone's wireless emergency alerts are activated and ready to receive tornado warnings.

Hospitals in the south are already overwhelmed by the surge in COVID patients. This hurricane will further strain medical resources and make it harder to treat people who are seriously injured by the storm. The hurricane's flooding and power outages may cause patients on life support to die. (This has happened before during big disasters.)

The storm and response are basically locked in at this point. If you're inland—say, around Jackson, Mississippi—you still have Sunday morning to prepare for power outages and wind damage. Otherwise, it's too close, we're in too deep, and all that's left is to watch and hope it weakens.

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Ida Set To Become A Major Hurricane Before Hitting Northern Gulf Coast On Sunday

Hurricane Ida is set to produce destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge when it makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. The NHC started using intense language—"potentially catastrophic wind damage"—to get the point across that this is an extremely serious storm. This will be a high-impact, memorable event for the southern United States. 

The Storm

Hurricane Ida had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph at the National Hurricane Center's 11:00 p.m. advisory.

The system is much healthier this evening than it was last night, even after crossing Cuba.

It's taking full advantage of warm waters and a favorable environment. Ida's got the look on satellite imagery, with deep convection swirling around the center of the storm, pronounced banding wrapping around its outer edges, and a big and scalloped upper-level outflow indicative of healthy thunderstorms in the storm's core.

The NHC's latest forecast is quite grim. The storm spent Friday evening over the western tip of Cuba. It's since emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and now the hurricane pretty much has a blank check to strengthen as much as it can before it finally makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday.

Waters here are quite warm—upper 80s!—and the storm will face little environmental resistance. The only limiting factor will be any hiccups with its internal structure.

Forecasters are calling for Ida to become a high-end major hurricane before making landfall in southern Louisiana on Sunday. The storm is likely going to make landfall somewhere near Houma, but a dozen miles to the west or to the east will have enormous implications in regards to its wind, surge, and heavy rain.

The storm's track is bad news no matter how things play out.

If Ida trends east, it could put intense winds and a major storm surge into New Orleans. "New Orleans ending up in the eastern eyewall of a major hurricane" is among the top five nightmares that keep meteorologists awake at night.

If the storm trends west or heads into central Louisiana as predicted, the effects of storm surge on populated areas would be lessened, but the marshy coastline would lend little resistance to intense winds slamming into the Lafayette metro area, home to nearly half a million people, and eventually the Baton Rouge area.

That's to say nothing of the flooding rains, the tornadoes, and the widespread power outages—near the point of landfall and well inland—we're likely going to see along Ida's path into the southern states.

Folks in and around the path of the storm need to hurry up and get done what needs doing, because you don't have much time between now and when conditions go downhill this weekend

The Warnings

A hurricane warning (red) is in effect for all of southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Lafayette.

A tropical storm warning (blue) is in effect for southwestern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and a portion of southwestern Mississippi.

A hurricane watch (pink) is in effect for counties in Mississippi currently under a tropical storm warning.

A tropical storm watch (yellow) is in effect for Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama, as well as a swath of inland counties in Louisiana and Mississippi, including Jackson.

Notice how deep into Louisiana and Mississippi those watches extend. This system won't wind down immediately after crossing the coastline. We could see widespread inland power outages on top of the potential for flooding rains and tornadoes.

These watches and warnings will probably shift a bit as forecasters refine the storm's track over the next couple of days.

Storm Surge

SOURCE: NHC

We could see a storm surge as high as 10-15 feet above ground level in the hurricane's eastern eyewall. The NHC's surge forecast above is based on storm surge during high tide—if the tide is lower at landfall, then the peak surge would probably be lower as well.

If the storm stays on the NHC's projected track, Ida's worst surge will likely push into relatively unpopulated areas and communities that are built to withstand at least some measure of storm surge.

It's always concerning to see a storm surge pushed into Lake Pontchartrain, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. These areas are heavily populated and it doesn't take much surge to flood communities near the coast.

If you know folks in the region, please convince them to heed any evacuation orders. Staying is never worth the risk, either to the people who stay or the people have to rescue or recover them.

Flooding Rain

Freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall will be a significant issue as Ida pushes inland. Widespread double-digit rainfall totals are likely in southeastern Louisiana as the hurricane makes landfall, with 5+ inches of rain falling hundreds of miles inland along Ida's path.

Flash flooding from heavy rain is one of the leading causes of death during landfalling storms in the United States. Never drive through a flooded roadway. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it downstream. It's impossible to judge how deep the water is until it's too late, and sometimes the road is washed out beneath the floodwaters.

Winds

Ida will have a large wind field that will extend more than a hundred miles from the eye of the storm. This means that communities pretty far away from the point of landfall could see widespread tree damage and power outages as the storm moves through, even far inland.

The worst wind damage will be where the eastern eyewall comes ashore. The winds of a major hurricane can severely damage or destroy even a well-built home. Wind finds every nook and cranny and leverages that weakness against the entire structure of the house. Usually, garage doors and roofs are the first to go, and the rest of the structure can follow.

If you have trees or tree limbs looming near your house, take them down or trim them now if you can. 

Trees falling into homes are a significant cause of injuries and fatalities during a tropical system.

If you can't trim or chop any trees that could fall into your home, take great care to avoid those rooms during the strongest winds. Make the best of it and have a slumber party in a safe part of the house to lower your risk.

Power Outages

Widespread, long-lasting power outages are likely where Ida makes landfall and for many miles inland along Ida's path.

Every time we have a landfalling hurricane, the extent and severity of inland power outages catches people off guard. 

Here are some tips (which, full disclosure, I've mostly copied and pasted from a post last year) on what you need to do to prepare for an approaching storm:

➤ Food: Don't get caught in a lengthy power outage without any non-perishable food that you don’t have to cook. Fruit cups are good. Ravioli and Spaghetti-Os are good. Milk is no good. Neither is fresh meat. (Spam is great, if that’s your thing.) Have enough to last each person three meals a day for at least a few days. Assume that McDonald's won't have power, either.

➤ Water: Bottled water is fine. Bottle-it-yourself water is better on your wallet and better for the environment. Remember to bottle enough for drinking and to use for flushing the toilet and washing your hands.

➤ Light: You need batteries and flashlights. Not your cell phone’s flashlight feature. An actual flashlight—many, if you can swing it—along with enough batteries for a few refills each. Trust me. Relying on your cell phone’s flashlight feature during a long power outage will just drain your cell phone and leave you without communication or light, and that’s no good.

➤ Cell Phone Charging Packs: Speaking of cell phones, rechargeable battery packs are cheap enough now that they're in reach even on a budget. It's wise to invest in a good battery pack that can give your smartphone at least a few full batteries on a single charge. Even the cheaper ones they often sell near the checkout lane in Walmart are good for a quick battery boost in a pinch.

➤ Gas Up Your Car: Long gas lines are a staple of pre-hurricane coverage on the news, and for good reason. The only thing worse than being stuck at home with no power is being stuck in a powerless home because your car is running on empty. You don't want to get stranded at home (or elsewhere) without any gas. Top off your tank before the storm hits. 

➤ Money: Your debit card and credit card aren’t going to work if the power is out and you need to go to the store and buy stuff. If you can afford a small cushion, having some physical cash on hand can get you through an extended power outage.

➤ Prescription Meds: Keep up with your prescription refills during hurricane season. If you know there’s a storm brewing and one of your prescription refills is coming due, it’s wise to refill it because you don’t know when you’ll be able to get it filled again.

Tornadoes

As always, there's going to be a risk for tornadoes as Ida makes landfall and probably for a couple of days after it starts pushing inland. Tornadoes are most likely on the right side of the system relative to its forward motion, which would be to the east of Ida's track.

The risk above will likely expand beyond Sunday as the hurricane pushes inland.

Tropical tornadoes happen quickly and they can occur with reduced lead time. Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings the moment they're issued. Take a moment to check your cell phone's wireless emergency alerts and ensure they're activated for tornado warnings.

COVID Safety

Louisiana is at the peak of their worst surge in COVID cases since the pandemic began. SOURCE: LDH

This is our second hurricane season during the pandemic. We're seeing a huge uptick in cases across the country right now as the Delta variant takes hold. 

This will make it tougher to do things safely, especially when it comes to mass evacuation shelters. If it's feasible, take some time to consider COVID safety in your hurricane plans if you haven't received a vaccination or if you're otherwise immunocompromised.

It's tough to juggle two emergencies at once. But it's necessary. Hospitals are already strained to the limit in many parts of the south, and this storm (and its ensuing effects) will make it that much harder for medical workers to keep up with demand.

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New Tropical System 'Could Be Near Major Hurricane Strength' In The Gulf This Weekend

A new tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning. This system is likely going to become Tropical Storm Ida by the end of the day as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Forecasters say the storm "could be near major hurricane strength" before hitting the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. Folks along the northern Gulf Coast have to act fast to prepare for this storm.

The National Hurricane Center has been watching this tropical disturbance for a couple of days now. Models over the last 24-36 hours have zeroed in on a likely landfall along the northern Gulf Coast this weekend.

The NHC's 11:00 a.m. advisory quickly strengthens the new tropical depression into Tropical Storm Ida on Thursday evening, steadily intensifying the storm as it traverses the Caribbean and aims for the tip of Cuba on Friday. The system "could be near major hurricane strength" (direct wording from the NHC) as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast this weekend.

Start Preparing Now

This is going to happen relatively quickly.

We're only 72-84 hours away from landfall. Conditions could start going downhill as early as Saturday night. Start preparing for a storm now, even if you're hundreds of miles inland from the coast. A strong storm can produce strong winds and widespread power outages far inland from the point of landfall.

Only a few barriers will stand in the way of this storm's eventual intensification. The system will encounter plenty of warm water between now and landfall.

Future-Ida's internal structure will be key to how quickly it intensifies. Conditions seem favorable for the storm to coalesce without much of an issue. However, plenty of Atlantic storms seemed poised to explode only to struggle to get their act together. 

Interaction with land is another question mark right now. If the storm makes landfall in Cuba as predicted, friction from the land will disrupt the storm even if only for a little while.

Otherwise, it looks like a straight shot between its current location and the northern Gulf Coast.

It's still too soon to pinpoint an exact landfall location—a shift of a few dozen miles in either direction has huge implications—but the storm's wind, rain, and storm surge will extend far away from the eye of the storm, so this is a concern for anyone in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

The National Hurricane Center will likely issue watches and warnings on Friday and Saturday, which is when we'll get specifics on the wind and storm surge.

The NHC issues forecast updates for the storm every six hours at 4:00 a.m./p.m. and 10:00 a.m/p.m. Central Time, with intermediate strength and position updates every three hours in between.

Flooding

This storm will produce very heavy rain as it pushes inland. The latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center shows widespread totals of 3-5 inches stretching into Tennessee, with much higher totals near the coast. Rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rain will shift around as forecasters refine the storm's eventual track and strength.

If you live in a flood zone, this is the time to prepare for flooding and potential evacuations. Think about your daily routes to work/school/wherever and map out alternate ways to get there.

Flash flooding from heavy rain is the leading cause of fatalities during a landfalling tropical cyclone in the United States. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift a car and send it downstream.

Trees

If you have trees or tree limbs looming near your house, take them down or trim them now if you can. Trees falling into homes are a significant cause of injuries and fatalities during a tropical system. If you can't trim or chop any trees that could fall into your home, take great care to avoid those rooms during the strongest winds. Make the best of it and have a slumber party in a safe part of the house to lower your risk.

Power Outages

Here are some tips (which, full disclosure, I've mostly copied and pasted from a post last year) on what you need to do to prepare for an approaching storm:

➤ Food: Don't get caught in a lengthy power outage without any non-perishable food that you don’t have to cook. Fruit cups are good. Ravioli and Spaghetti-Os are good. Milk is no good. Neither is fresh meat. (Spam is great, if that’s your thing.) Have enough to last each person three meals a day for at least a few days. Assume that McDonald's won't have power, either.

➤ Water: Bottled water is fine. Bottle-it-yourself water is better on your wallet and better for the environment. Remember to bottle enough for drinking and to use for flushing the toilet and washing your hands.

➤ Light: You need batteries and flashlights. Not your cell phone’s flashlight feature. An actual flashlight—many, if you can swing it—along with enough batteries for a few refills each. Trust me. Relying on your cell phone’s flashlight feature during a long power outage will just drain your cell phone and leave you without communication or light, and that’s no good.

➤ Cell Phone Charging Packs: Speaking of cell phones, rechargeable battery packs are cheap enough now that they're in reach even on a budget. It's wise to invest in a good battery pack that can give your smartphone at least a few full batteries on a single charge. Even the cheaper ones they often sell near the checkout lane in Walmart are good for a quick battery boost in a pinch.

➤ Gas Up Your Car: Long gas lines are a staple of pre-hurricane coverage on the news, and for good reason. The only thing worse than being stuck at home with no power is being stuck in a powerless home because your car is running on empty. You don't want to get stranded at home (or elsewhere) without any gas. Top off your tank before the storm hits. 

➤ Money: Your debit card and credit card aren’t going to work if the power is out and you need to go to the store and buy stuff. If you can afford a small cushion, having some physical cash on hand can get you through an extended power outage.

➤ Prescription Meds: Keep up with your prescription refills during hurricane season. If you know there’s a storm brewing and one of your prescription refills is coming due, it’s wise to refill it because you don’t know when you’ll be able to get it filled again.

COVID Safety

This is our second hurricane season during the pandemic. We're seeing a huge uptick in cases across the country right now as the Delta variant takes hold. 

This will make it tougher to do things safely, especially when it comes to mass evacuation shelters. If it's feasible, take some time to consider COVID safety in your hurricane plans if you haven't received a vaccination or if you're otherwise immunocompromised.

It's tough to juggle two emergencies at once. But it's necessary. Hospitals are already strained to the limit in many parts of the south, and this storm (and its ensuing effects) will make it that much harder for medical workers to keep up with demand.

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Prepare Now For A Potential Tropical System In The Gulf This Weekend

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico. The system is likely to strengthen in the Gulf as it approaches land late this weekend or early next week. While it's still too early for many specifics, this is the time to prepare and be aware.

The disturbance, dubbed Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center for tracking purposes, is an open tropical wave in the southern Caribbean Sea. The system isn't much more than a loose collection of scattered thunderstorms over open waters.

The disturbance is moving northwest toward the Yucatan, and conditions should be favorable for the system to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next day or two.

Here's what we know (and don't know) right now.

Timing

This is going to unfold relatively quickly. We don't have a week and a half to watch the storm like we would if it traversed the Atlantic. The rapid pace at which this system will likely develop will reduce the amount of time folks along the Gulf Coast and inland will have to prepare.

Right now, it looks like we could see the system approach the U.S. as early as Saturday night or Sunday. 

Strength and Landfall

Right now, it looks like the system will generally head toward the northern Gulf Coast.

It's the end of August, the Gulf is warm, and the atmosphere around the system would be favorable for strengthening, so it's not unreasonable to say it could be a hurricane by the time it approaches the area—if it develops, of course.

The tricky part of tracking tropical disturbances that haven't formed yet is, well...they haven't formed yet. The models are tracking a storm that doesn't yet exist.

But all storms have to start somewhere, and most models are on board with this disturbance getting its act together in a hurry toward the weekend.

Once the system develops—with a structure and a defined center of circulation—models (and forecasters!) will get a better idea of where the storm will go and how much it'll intensify before it gets there.

This storm's name would be either Ida or Julian, depending on whether this develops before or after another disturbance out in the central Atlantic.

Potential Impacts

Strong winds, a dangerous storm surge, widespread flooding from heavy rainfall, and tornadoes would be major hazards along and near the storm's eventual path. It's tough to talk about the specifics until the system actually forms.

Power outages are always a major issue with a landfalling storm, even hundreds of miles inland from the point of landfall. 

Use this time to prepare for a potential storm. As I said last week when Henri first looked like it might head toward the Northeast:

Do you have flashlights and batteries? How about non-perishable food that doesn't need to be cooked? Ravioli is good straight out of the can, especially when the power is out and you're tired of potato chips.

Don't forget all the things we don't think about until we need them, like personal hygiene supplies, medicines, cash if you can afford it (cards don't work if the power's out), and battery backups for your cell phone.

Take a look at what trees loom near your house. If there are any trees or tree limbs that could fall into your home during high winds, take the time to trim them or remove them now. A significant number of injuries and deaths during a tropical cyclone are the result of trees falling into homes.

If you live in a flood zone, make some plans for what you'll do if you have to deal with flash flooding in the next couple of days. Do you have somewhere to go, or an escape plan if you need to evacuate in a hurry?

Keep in mind that we're in the middle of a sharp rise in COVID cases as the Delta variant spreads across the country. Folks who are immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable to severe illness from COVID might want to consider alternate plans if they consider evacuation shelters too risky.

Check the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office frequently over the next few days. This is the time to pay attention and prepare. If the storm forms and heads your way, you're ready. If not, then you're ready for the next threat.

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Hurricane Henri Will Bring Dangerous Winds, Flooding To New England On Sunday

Henri is now a hurricane as it gathers strength in the western Atlantic Ocean. The storm could strengthen a bit more before its final approach to New England on Sunday. This is a dangerous situation for communities in the path of the storm. Here's what you need to know about the storm today.

Henri Strengthened Into A Hurricane On Saturday

Hurricane Henri had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at the National Hurricane Center's 11:00 a.m. update on Saturday. The system's tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) extend more than 100 miles from the center of the storm.

Source: NOAA

The system is better organized today than it was yesterday. You can almost pick out an eye starting to peek through the clouds on the visible satellite imagery this afternoon.

Forecasters expect Henri to pick up a little more strength on Saturday as it takes advantage of a favorable environment and traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Henri is heading north-northeast this afternoon and picking up speed as it interacts with a trough to its west and a ridge to its north. That ridge up north will block the storm from racing northeast out to sea, forcing it to curve into the northeastern United States.

The NHC expects Henri to make landfall at or near hurricane strength on both Long Island and Connecticut on Sunday afternoon, quickly weakening as it pushes inland and turns to the east through early next week.

The storm's anticipated track and slow exit will bring an extended period of dangerous weather to highly populated areas. Henri's wind, rain, and storm surge will extend far away from the center of the storm.

This is likely going to be a high-impact storm for the region.

Widespread Watches And Warnings

A hurricane warning (red) is in effect for:

—Long Island east of Nassau County

—New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties in Connecticut

—Washington and Newport Counties in Rhode Island

—Block Island

A tropical storm warning (blue) is in effect for:

—All of New York City

—Nassau County, NY and Westchester County, NY

—Northeastern New Jersey, including Newark and New Brunswick

—All of Connecticut not included in the hurricane warning

—All of Rhode Island not included in the hurricane warning

—Coastal southeast Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the islands.

It's possible that these watches and warnings could adjust a bit east or west if there's a jump in Henri's forecast track, but it's safe to say that everyone in and around these watches and warnings will experience an extended period of dangerous weather beginning on Sunday.

You should be done with your storm preparations and get where you need to be by tonight at the latest.

* * * * *

Note: Beginning with the section below, much of the text here is copied over from my article yesterday, with updated maps and information where needed.

The threats for wind damage, power outages, flash flooding, and storm surge flooding are very high for communities in Henri's path. Please take this storm seriously.

Flash Flooding

Heavy, tropical rainfall will lead to a widespread flash flooding threat across New England as the storm pushes ashore. Henri's slow track inland will allow the storm to produce heavy rainfall for an extended period of time.

The Weather Prediction Center's latest forecast calls for widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches by the end of the storm, with higher totals likely in some locations along Henri's track and at higher elevations.

Heavy rain will lead to widespread flash flooding, especially in urban areas, along waterways, and areas where runoff is exacerbated by local terrain.

Freshwater flooding is the leading cause of death for landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift a vehicle and carry it downstream.

Never drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and sometimes the road is washed away beneath the water.

Winds

The points on the track map only apply to the very center of the storm. Strong winds currently extend more than 100 miles from the center of the storm. This will be a significant wind event for New England.

Sustained hurricane force winds (74+ mph) are possible across communities under hurricane warnings. Higher gusts are possible. Tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) are possible across a wide area extending from New York City to Cape Cod, and as far inland from the coast as the Berkshires. 

This is going to be stronger than your run-of-the-mill nor'easter. For some areas in New England, this storm will have stronger winds and last longer than all of the nor'easters and tropical systems since at least Hurricane Irene in 2011, if not before then.

Power Outages

Last year, Isaias roared through the northeastern states as a tropical storm and caused millions of power outages that lasted for a week or longer in some communities. This will hit the area as a stronger storm than Isaias.

We're very likely going to see widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages across the affected areas.

Keep physical flashlights and battery replacements on hand. It's important to conserve your cell phone battery during a power outage. You don't want to waste precious charge using your phone's flashlight to find your way to the bathroom, y'know what I mean?

USB recharging packs for smartphones are pretty affordable these days and they're relatively easy to find at most stores. They're totally worth it. They've helped me out a few times during extended power outages.

Make sure you have non-perishable food that doesn't require cooking—stuff like canned ravioli, fruit cups, bread, PB&J, and all that good stuff. Keep some bottled water (or fill up your own containers) for drinking, food prep, and personal hygiene.

It's a good idea to fill up a bathtub with water in the off-chance water service goes out. You'll need it to flush the toilet.

Tree Damage Likely

A sustained period of strong winds will produce widespread tree damage, especially in communities with large and old trees that may not be able to withstand the intensity of a landfalling hurricane.

Please stay mindful of nearby trees and tree limbs.

Downed trees and tree limbs will damage homes—potentially leading to serious injuries and deaths—and make some roads impassable for a time during and after the storm.

If your bedroom (for instance) is located near a wall or roof where a tree could fall during high winds, consider having a slumber party in a safer part of the house to reduce your risk if the worst happens.

Storm Surge

Source: NHC

Storm surge is flooding caused by strong, persistent winds pushing seawater inland along the coast. The effects and depth of storm surge vary greatly depending on wind direction, the shape of the coast, the depth of the water near shore, whether it's high tide or low tide, and how long the winds last.

The highest storm surge usually occurs in the right-front quadrant of the storm, where the winds are the strongest and they're blowing onshore.

Based on Henri's forecast track, this would put the deepest storm surge into southern Long Island, the Long Island Sound, as well as Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and their respective islands. These areas could see 3-5 feet of storm surge inundation during the height of the storm.

Elsewhere, a storm surge several feet above ground level is possible during the worst of the storm. This kind of flooding doesn't seem like much, but it would be dangerous and life-threatening for folks near the coast.

This will be not be a repeat of Sandy. A storm doesn't need to go toe-to-toe with Sandy to pose a significant threat to life and property. Please take Henri and its hazards seriously.

Tornadoes

Tornadoes are always a threat when tropical cyclones make landfall. The threat for tornadoes is most common on the right side of a storm relative to its forward motion.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a marginal risk for severe weather across southeastern New England as Henri makes landfall on Sunday. The SPC notes that the threat will be limited by low instability, but a couple of tornadoes are possible in stronger storms in Henri's outer bands. 

Make sure your phone's wireless emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings.

Updates

The National Hurricane Center releases updates every three hours as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Full forecast packages come out at 5:00 a.m/p.m. and 11:00 a.m./p.m. (EDT), with intermediate updates on the storm's current stats every three hours in between.

Your local National Weather Service office issues local forecasts, watches, and warnings for your location.

The Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing daily severe weather outlooks and tornado watches.

The Weather Prediction Center issues excessive rainfall outlooks and precipitation amount forecasts several times a day.

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Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.
 

Hurricane Warnings Issued As Henri Aims For New England This Weekend

Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Northeast this afternoon as Tropical Storm Henri strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. The storm is expected to grow into a hurricane Friday night or Saturday, making landfall on or near Long Island during the day on Sunday. This will be one of the strongest storms the region has seen in recent years.

Here's what you need to know.

Henri Heading Toward New England This Weekend

Henri was on the cusp of hurricane strength at the National Hurricane Center's 5:00 p.m. update, packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts. The system's tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) extend more than 100 miles from the center of the storm.

The storm is entering a pattern over the western Atlantic that will force it to steer into New England. We've known this scenario was a possibility for a few days now. The vast majority of storms in this part of the basin wind up heading out to sea, though a few manage to curve into land. Henri is on track to be one of those storms.

Henri began to turn north on Friday evening as clockwise winds blowing around a Bermuda High took over steering the storm. A ridge of high pressure over Eastern Canada will block the storm from racing northeast out to sea, forcing it to slow down and curve into the northeastern United States.

The NHC expects Henri to make landfall at or near hurricane strength in New England on Sunday afternoon, weakening as it pushes inland and turns to the east through early next week.

The storm's anticipated track and slow motion will bring an extended period of dangerous weather to highly populated areas. This is likely going to be a high-impact storm.

Widespread Watches And Warnings

A hurricane warning (red) is in effect for much of Long Island and most coastal communities in central and eastern Connecticut.

A tropical storm warning (blue) is in effect for Nassau County, NY, as well as southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties in Connecticut. 

A hurricane watch (pink) is in effect for southern Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, Block Island, and Cape Cod. Hurricane watches also extend inland into Connecticut.

A tropical storm watch (yellow) is in effect for New York City, much of northeastern New Jersey (including Newark, New Brunswick, and Sandy Hook), as well as inland portions of Westchester and Fairfield Counties.

All of these watches and warnings are likely to adjust over the next day or so as forecasters refine Henri's track as it approaches the region. Everyone from New York City to Boston needs to prepare for the worst in case the storm's track shifts in their direction.

Winds

The points on the track map only apply to the very center of the storm. Strong winds currently extend more than 100 miles from the center of the storm. This will be a significant wind event for New England.

Sustained hurricane force winds (74+ mph) are possible across communities under hurricane watches and warnings. Higher gusts are possible. Tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) are possible across a wide area extending from New York City to Cape Cod, and as far inland from the coast as the Berkshires. 

This is going to be stronger than your run-of-the-mill nor'easter. For some areas in New England, this storm will have stronger winds and last longer than all of the nor'easters and tropical systems since at least Hurricane Irene in 2011, if not before then.

Power Outages

Last year, Isaias roared through the northeastern states as a tropical storm and caused millions of power outages that lasted for a week or longer in some communities. This will hit the area as a stronger storm than Isaias.

We're very likely going to see widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages across the affected areas.

Keep physical flashlights and battery replacements on hand. It's important to conserve your cell phone battery during a power outage. You don't want to waste precious charge using your phone's flashlight to find your way to the bathroom, y'know what I mean?

USB recharging packs for smartphones are pretty affordable these days and they're relatively easy to find at most stores. They're totally worth it. They've helped me out a few times during extended power outages.

Make sure you have non-perishable food that doesn't require cooking—stuff like canned ravioli, fruit cups, bread, PB&J, and all that good stuff. Keep some bottled water (or fill up your own containers) for drinking, food prep, and personal hygiene.

It's a good idea to fill up a bathtub with water in the off-chance water service goes out. You'll need it to flush the toilet.

Tree Damage Likely

A sustained period of strong winds will produce widespread tree damage, especially in communities with large and old trees that may not be able to withstand the intensity of a landfalling hurricane.

Please stay mindful of nearby trees and tree limbs.

Downed trees and tree limbs will damage homes—potentially leading to serious injuries and deaths—and make some roads impassable for a time during and after the storm.

If your bedroom (for instance) is located near a wall or roof where a tree could fall during high winds, consider having a slumber party in a safer part of the house to reduce your risk if the worst happens.

Storm Surge

Storm surge is flooding caused by strong, persistent winds pushing seawater inland along the coast. The effects and depth of storm surge vary greatly depending on wind direction, the shape of the coast, the depth of the water near shore, whether it's high tide or low tide, and how long the winds last.

The highest storm surge usually occurs in the right-front quadrant of the storm, where the winds are the strongest and they're blowing onshore.

Based on Henri's forecast track, this would put the deepest storm surge into parts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, as well as their respective islands. These areas could see 3-5 feet of storm surge inundation during the height of the storm.

Elsewhere, a storm surge several feet above ground level is possible during the worst of the storm. This kind of flooding doesn't seem like much, but it would be dangerous and life-threatening for folks near the coast.

This will be not be a repeat of Sandy. A storm doesn't need to go toe-to-toe with Sandy to pose a significant threat to life and property. Please take Henri and its hazards seriously.

Flash Flooding

Heavy, tropical rainfall will lead to a widespread flash flooding threat across New England as the storm pushes ashore. Henri's slow track inland will allow the storm to produce heavy rainfall for an extended period of time.

The Weather Prediction Center's latest forecast calls for 5+ inches of rain across central Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont, with higher totals likely in some locations. Several inches of rain are possible from New York City to Boston and north through New Hampshire.

Heavy rain will lead to widespread flash flooding, especially in urban areas, along waterways, and areas where runoff is exacerbated by local terrain.

Freshwater flooding is the leading cause of death for landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift a vehicle and carry it downstream.

Never drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and sometimes the road is washed away beneath the water.

Tornadoes

Tornadoes are always a threat when tropical cyclones make landfall. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center doesn't have any areas outlined at risk for tornadoes during Henri's landfall. It's a threat worth watching as we get closer to landfall.

The threat for tornadoes is most common on the right side of a storm relative to its forward motion. Just file it away in the back of your mind if you live in the region, and make sure your phone's wireless emergency alerts are activated for tornado warnings.

Updates

The National Hurricane Center releases updates every three hours as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Full forecast packages come out at 5:00 a.m/p.m. and 11:00 a.m./p.m. (EDT), with intermediate updates on the storm's current stats every three hours in between.

Your local National Weather Service office issues local forecasts, watches, and warnings for your location.

The Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing daily severe weather outlooks and tornado watches.

The Weather Prediction Center issues excessive rainfall outlooks and precipitation amount forecasts several times a day.

---

You can follow me on Twitter or send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.