Rinse and repeat: yet another wave of dangerous storms expected Saturday

One active pattern after another sweeping across the U.S. this season will just keep on going as we head into the start of the Memorial Day weekend.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a moderate risk, a level 4 out of 5, for much of Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday as widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region.

"Strong to violent tornadoes" are possible, the SPC said in its forecast on Friday afternoon.

The Setup

Fresh on the heels of a low-pressure system that generated powerful tornadoes comes...yet another low-pressure system that could generate powerful tornadoes.

Forecasters expect a low to quickly develop and strengthen over the central Plains during the day Saturday.

Image: Twister Data

Ample heat and humidity over the southern Plains, combined with lift provided by the approaching low and strong wind shear aloft, will set the stage for widespread severe thunderstorms from northern Texas through southern Nebraska.

The model graphic above from TwisterData.com is valid for about 7:00 p.m. CDT on Saturday, showing the Energy Helicity Index (EHI).

EHI is a parameter that takes into account both instability and wind shear. Values above 2.00 are sufficient for supercells, with higher values indicating a more favorable environment for supercells that could produce tornadoes. It's not hard to see how favorable the setup is for tornadic and hail-producing supercells on Saturday afternoon and evening across the areas highlighted by the SPC.

The worst of the weather is expected across much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and far western Missouri. This includes Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, and Kansas City.

The Risk

The SPC's moderate risk is in effect due to the potential for all modes of significant severe weather across the region. 

TORNADOES: A growing risk for intense and long-lived tornadoes will exist within any discrete supercell thunderstorms that form away from other clusters of storms. These supercells could also produce very large hail the size of golf balls or larger.

WINDS: As the evening wears on, and as we so often see, those individual thunderstorms will begin to merge into one or more squall lines that races east through the overnight hours. These lines will carry a risk for widespread damaging winds with gusts of 75+ mph possible. There is a risk for fast-moving embedded tornadoes within these squall lines. Damaging winds are a particular risk through areas like Tulsa, Wichita, and Kansas City.

TIMING: Thunderstorms will begin to bubble through the western half of the risk area during the day on Saturday. The greatest risk will evolve through the early evening hours, continuing into Saturday night and the wee morning hours Sunday.  

Safety Tips

Be proactive. Don't let storms take you by surprise. Keep an eye on the radar and local news for live storm coverage, and stay aware of storms heading in your direction.

Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Take a look at your phone and ensure emergency alerts are turned on for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are proven lifesavers, and they only warn you if your location is included in the warning so you know it's nothing to ignore. 

Do not rely on tornado sirens as your first line of defense. Tornado sirens are not meant to be heard indoors. These systems are unreliable and prone to failure.

Form a plan in advance for where you'll seek shelter if you're under a tornado warning. Stay on the lowest level of the building in an interior room, putting as many floors and walls between you and flying debris as possible. Keep blankets, pillows, and a bicycle helmet handy to wear while sheltering. 

Manufactured and mobile homes offer no protection from even the weakest tornado. If you're in one of these unsafe structures, have a secondary shelter location in mind and go there before the storms arrive.

Wear closed-toe shoes today to protect your feet if you have to walk through debris.

If you're driving when a tornado warning is issued, do not stop under an overpass. Bridges offer no protection from tornadic winds or flying debris—they actually make the winds stronger. Stopping under a bridge to shelter from a tornado or large hail often causes traffic jams that can lead to serious car accidents or worse if a tornado hits that location.

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Severe storms may produce strong tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday

An active spring severe weather season rolls on across the central United States this week as a multi-day storm threat unfolds over the region. 

Tuesday looks to feature the strongest and most widespread storm risk, with severe storms targeting the eastern Plains and Midwest through the day.

The Setup

A model image showing the upper levels of the atmosphere on Tuesday morning. || Image: Tropical Tidbits

The country is split in two right now between a ridge over the southern and eastern U.S. and a broad trough over the west. This setup is the driving force behind the warmth and the storm risk we'll see through the week.

It's going to be a hot week for much of the country as daytime highs frequently soar into the 80s and 90s beneath that ridge from the desert southwest all the way into interior New England. 

Meanwhile, the trough out west will force the development of a low-pressure system over the central Plains on Monday. This storm will quickly gather strength as it moves north toward Iowa and Minnesota through the day on Tuesday.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop as the low and its fronts send unstable air surging skyward. This low will drag a slug of warm and humid air north into the Midwest, feeding thunderstorms the fuel they need to survive and thrive. Plenty of wind shear aloft will allow these storms to quickly turn severe. 

The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather—a level 3 out of 5—for a wide swath of the Midwest from central Missouri to northern Wisconsin. The overall risk for severe weather covers much of the central U.S. from Dallas north toward the international border across the Great Lakes.

Like so many severe weather events of this caliber, the storms will unfold in different stages throughout the day. Discrete thunderstorms early in the day could turn into supercells capable of supporting tornadoes in addition to the risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The greatest risk for tornadic supercells exists in the warm airmass southeast of the low's center, which is likely to fall over the eastern half of Iowa, extending into portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri. Dynamics are favorable for one or two strong, long-lived tornadoes in this region.

As the afternoon and evening wear on, storms will start to merge and congeal into one or more squall lines, at which point the main threat will transition over to damaging straight-line winds with the potential for embedded tornadoes. These storms will likely continue well into the nighttime hours as they race east into the Great Lakes region.

Image: NWS Mobile

Nighttime severe thunderstorms are particularly dangerous because it's easy to miss warnings as we tune out and wind down for the evening. Don't let storms take you by surprise. Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued.

Take a look at your phone and ensure emergency alerts are turned on for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are proven lifesavers, and they only warn you if your location is included in the warning so you know it's nothing to ignore. 

Do not rely on tornado sirens as your first line of defense. Tornado sirens are not meant to be heard indoors. These systems are unreliable and prone to failure. 

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Intense tornadoes possible Monday as rare 'high risk' kicks off a week of severe storms

"Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes" are possible across parts of the southern Plains on Monday as another major severe weather outbreak unfolds across the center of the country.

This is the opening act of another multi-day severe weather threat across the country, the latest in a weeks-long run of severe weather that's hammered the central U.S. over the past few weeks.

Note: The outlook maps in this article were updated at 2:30 p.m. CDT Monday to reflect the SPC's latest forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded portions of Oklahoma and Kansas to a rare high risk for severe weather, the highest threat category that's reserved for days capable of producing a tornado outbreak. This is the first high risk issued by the SPC in more than a year.

All the dynamics are in place to support dangerous storms Monday afternoon and into the nighttime hours. High instability and favorable wind shear will allow any storms that form to quickly intensify and turn severe.

Widespread storms are likely to develop from Nebraska through Oklahoma on Monday afternoon. Storms farther to the north are likely to congeal into one or more squall lines capable of producing damaging winds of 60+ mph, along with a risk for embedded tornadoes.

Farther south, though, storms are likely to develop as individual supercells across southern Kansas and much of central Oklahoma. Forecasters are concerned about the dynamics they see in this area, warranting the upgrade to a high risk.

Any supercells that form in the region could be capable of supporting intense, long-track tornadoes, as well as hail up to the size of softballs, and destructive wind gusts of 75+ mph.

As the evening wears on, those supercells will likely merge into a squall line and truck east after dark, posing a significant risk for damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes across eastern sections of the risk areas. Nocturnal severe thunderstorms are especially risky as folks tune out and head to bed. 

Image: SPC

High risk days are rare and dangerous. Forecasters reserve this designation for the most significant days that have the highest potential for storms that could cause significant damage and loss of life.

It's rare for all the ingredients to come together to create a high-end severe weather outbreak. Lots of points of failure are possible. Storms could struggle to form. We could see "messy" storm structures that prevent them from fully engaging with the favorable environment. But the risk is there—and it's serious.

Please take today seriously if you live in the area. If you know folks in the area, make sure they're aware of the risk on Monday. 

Some Safety Tips

Be proactive. Don't let storms take you by surprise. Keep an eye on the radar and local news for live storm coverage, and stay aware of storms heading in your direction.

Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Take a look at your phone and ensure emergency alerts are turned on for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are proven lifesavers, and they only warn you if your location is included in the warning so you know it's nothing to ignore. 

Do not rely on tornado sirens as your first line of defense. Tornado sirens are not meant to be heard indoors. These systems are unreliable and prone to failure. 

Image: NWS Mobile

Form a plan in advance for where you'll seek shelter if you're under a tornado warning. Stay on the lowest level of the building in an interior room, putting as many floors and walls between you and flying debris as possible. Keep blankets, pillows, and a bicycle helmet handy to wear while sheltering. 

Manufactured and mobile homes offer no protection from even the weakest tornado. If you're in one of these unsafe structures, have a secondary shelter location in mind and go there before the storms arrive.

Wear closed-toe shoes today to protect your feet if you have to walk through debris.

If you're driving when a tornado warning is issued, do not stop under an overpass. Bridges offer no protection from tornadic winds or flying debris—they actually make the winds stronger. Stopping under a bridge to shelter from a tornado or large hail often causes traffic jams that can lead to serious car accidents or worse if a tornado hits that location.

Tuesday's Threat

Tuesday's severe weather outlook begins at 7:00 a.m. EDT. This threat will play out in two regions.

First, Monday's severe weather will continue through the overnight hours as the squall line pushes east into the Mississippi Valley through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. This covers the risk near the Mississippi River.

Later in the day, a broken line of thunderstorms is likely to develop along the cold front as it tracks east through the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The strongest of these storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of isolated tornadoes.

Wednesday's Threat

A new low-pressure system will develop in Texas and quickly scoot toward the Midwest by the middle of the week, leading to a renewed threat for widespread severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

This expansive risk stretches from central Texas to western Massachusetts, with the bulk of the severe weather expected from the Dallas metro area up through the heart of the Ohio Valley.

Widespread damaging wind gusts of 75+ mph will be possible in and around the enhanced risk area on Wednesday, along with a potential for a few strong tornadoes. Scattered severe storms are possible for folks in the eastern states, as well, with damaging winds possible in the stronger storms that develop.

Initial thunderstorms could start as supercells west of the Mississippi early in the day Wednesday. The threat will likely evolve as multiple broken squall lines through the day, with embedded supercells possible. 

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The U.S. just saw its second-most tornadic April on record

At least 300 confirmed tornadoes touched down across the United States last month, making it the second-most tornadic April on record across the country.

Repeated bouts of severe thunderstorms rolling across the central Plains fuelled this past month's frenzy of tornadoes. The bulk of April's twisters touched down at the end of the month as day after day of severe thunderstorms erupted amid a favorable pattern parked over the region.

Surveys conducted by the National Weather Service confirmed at least 300 tornadoes across 20 states throughout the month of April. This preliminary count all but secures the month's status as the second-most tornadic April on record, beaten only by the historic outbreaks of April 2011.

Last month's worst-rated tornado was an EF-4 that struck Marietta, Oklahoma, on April 27, one of more than two-dozen tornadoes to hit the state that day.

Many of the tornadoes were widely photographed, including several that struck eastern Nebraska one day earlier on April 26.

A highway traffic camera snagged an instantly memorable capture of one of those twisters as it crossed the interstate between Lincoln and Omaha.

April's remarkable pace of tornadic storms was an abrupt return of severe weather to traditional Tornado Alley. Many of the high-impact tornado outbreaks we've seen in recent years largely spared the Plains by unfolding across the southeastern states instead.

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