Hurricane Gabrielle's rapid intensification fits right in with this decade's major hurricanes

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified into a category four storm Monday as it passed east of Bermuda.

The storm is now the twentieth (!) major hurricane to undergo at least one period of rapid intensification since the turn of the decade. 

Gabrielle's maximum sustained winds jumped from 75 mph (65 knots) to 140 mph (120 knots) in a 24-hour period between Sunday evening and Monday evening.

This nearly doubles the criteria needed to qualify for rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm's winds increase at least 30 knots within 24 hours. 

This Atlantic season is now two-for-two on hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms. Hurricane Erin grew into a scale-topping Category 5 back in August.

Favorable conditions allowed Gabrielle to rapidly gather strength through the day Monday, including unusually warm waters east of Bermuda and upper-level winds helping to vent air away from the core of the growing hurricane.

While the storm is moving east away from the United States and Canada, it may pose a threat to land within the next couple of days.

Officials issued a hurricane watch for the Azores as Gabrielle approaches the region later this week. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to cross the archipelago at hurricane strength late on Thursday. Damaging winds, storm surge flooding, large swells, and flooding rains are possible as Gabrielle hits the region.

Direct hurricane strikes are relatively rare in the Azores. Hurricane Lorenzo brushed the western islands in 2019. Hurricane Alex moved over the islands as an exceptionally rare January hurricane in 2016. Two hurricanes both named Gordon (really!) struck the region in 2012 and 2006. 

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Experts warn that Atlantic hurricane season could rev up after a quiet stretch

Experts with Colorado State University are explicitly warning folks not to write off this year's Atlantic hurricane season yet. Even though the ocean basin has been completely calm through the historic peak of the season, signs point toward renewed activity in the weeks ahead.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season began with forecasters broadly expecting above-normal activity across the basin. Warm sea surface temperatures and other favorable conditions seemed to suggest bustling activity.

We had a slow start to the year, then a monster in Category 5 Hurricane Erin, and then the basin fell silent again. What gives?

The team at CSU recently released a detailed analysis of the first half of this year's hurricane season. Factors that have kept the basin exceptionally quiet include dry air, a stable atmosphere, vertical wind shear, and suppressed waves rolling off the western coast of Africa.

They added: "We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September." 

We're only halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season. The historic climax in activity usually occurs around September 12, which is the point we've seen—on average—about half the season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). 

Quiet seasons are a mixed bag. On one hand, it's great that we haven't seen any disruptive or destructive storms this far. On the other hand, though, an extended stretch without any tropical activity may lull coastal residents into a false sense of security.

Some of recent history's most impactful storms formed and hit land through the end of September and into October—Helene and Milton among them just last year. 

Don't let your guard down yet. We've still got a long way to go.

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