Checking in on the strange 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

We're more than halfway done with this year's Atlantic hurricane season and...well, it's been a weird one so far.

The ocean basin has produced 11 named storms through Oct. 12. This year's storms have pretty neatly fallen into two groups so far—they've either struggled mightily, or absolutely reached for the stars. 

Out of those 11 named storms, four grew into hurricanes. Erin and Humberto reached category five intensity, Gabrielle was a solid category four, and Imelda reached category two strength.

A favorable atmospheric setup has kept all but one of those storms away from the continental United States. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina with 60 mph winds during the overnight hours on Sunday, July 6. Otherwise, nine out of the ten remaining storms recurved out into the open Atlantic.

We haven't even seen any tropical systems in the Caribbean by this point in the season, a testament to the strength and placement of ridges of high pressure over the central Atlantic. If these ridges were stronger or farther west, the waves that grew into storms like Erin and Humberto may have travelled farther south into the Caribbean instead.

How does this season stack up compared to normal?

An average Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. We're pretty much on track to see a near-normal season, assuming we see another storm or two over the next couple of weeks. 

Even this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is near normal. ACE is a metric meteorologists use to gauge the true intensity of a hurricane season, accounting for the strength and longevity of a season's storms. A stronger storm that lasts longer will produce higher ACE values than a weak, short-lived system.

So far this season, we've seen an ACE value of 96.2, which was 92.4% of normal for Oct. 11. Erin, Humberto, and Gabrielle account for more than 80% of that energy, which really throws it back to how every storm this season has either struggled or excelled.

The season isn't over yet. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and we've seen plenty of high-end storms form through the end of October and into November. We'll have to start looking closer to home—in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—for storm formation as we enter these final weeks of the season. 

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Coastal flooding likely as blustery storm meanders off the East Coast

A developing storm is set to cause major problems for coastal communities up and down the eastern seaboard beginning this weekend, threatening high winds and flooding throughout the region.

Some meteorologists are calling this the most impactful storm to hit parts of the region in over a decade, with near-record coastal flooding possible in spots. 

An upper-level trough over the southeast is spinning up a low-pressure system off the coast of Florida to end the week. We'll see this system move up the coast toward North Carolina with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds heading into the weekend. 

This storm isn't moving anywhere in a hurry. A ridge of high pressure over New England and Eastern Canada will force the system to meander just off the coast.

The tight pressure gradient between the low and that high pressure to the north will fuel ripping winds directed at the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, which could easily exceed 60 mph at times.

Blustery conditions could lead to power outages from the Delmarva north through Long Island. Persistent winds pushing ashore will also lead to a risk for widespread coastal flooding from Jacksonville, Florida, all the way up north of Boston. 

Many of the affected areas could essentially see a one- to two-foot storm surge later this weekend and into the day Monday. Significant beach erosion and closed roads are also possible.

Despite the hazards, it's worth noting that this is not a tropical system—a storm doesn't need a name to cause major disruptions.

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Drought continues to spread across the United States

It's not just your imagination—it's been an unusually dry couple of months across the United States.

The latest update of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) on Oct. 7 showed 73 percent of the country mired in abnormally dry or full-on drought conditions. This includes much of the Intermountain West, as well as vast swaths of the southeast, Midwest, and New England. 

Compare that map to the one from June 3:

Big difference!

The most significant degradation has occurred along and east of the Mississippi River. Persistent ridges of high pressure suppressed thunderstorm activity and shunted weather systems around the region. A near-complete lack of landfalling tropical systems has also contributed to the rainfall deficit, especially across the southeast.

Only a few areas have seen drought improve between the beginning of June and the start of October, including the northern half of the Plains and portions of Texas and the desert southwest.

Forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center don't see much improvement on the way over the next couple of weeks. Only a few areas, such as southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest, have better-than-even odds of above-normal precipitation heading into the back half of autumn.

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North Dakota tornado upgraded to EF-5, the first in 12 years

The first confirmed EF-5 tornado in 12 years occurred in North Dakota back in June, according to an official report from the National Weather Service issued on Monday.

Estimated winds greater than 210 mph occurred within the mile-wide tornado as it churned near Enderlin, North Dakota, late in the night on June 20, 2025. Enderlin is about 40 miles southwest of Fargo.

Officials teamed up with wind damage experts across the U.S. and Canada to study the damage and make the final determination.

"The tornado derailed 33 train cars including 19 fully-loaded grain hopper cars and 14 empty tanker cars, mainly tipped from the track," the report stated.

A photo of the EF-5 damage near Enderlin, North Dakota. Photo courtesy NWS/Aaron Rigsby

"It was in this train derailment location that EF-5 damage intensity was noted with greater than 210 mph winds listed officially for this tornado."

EF-5 tornadoes are exceptionally rare—this is only the 60th confirmed scale-topping twister in the U.S. since 1950, and the first since the devastating storm that hit Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. 

It's difficult for officials to find EF-5 damage because few structures can withstand winds close to 200 mph. Experts often have to rely on context clues to arrive at an EF-5 rating, such as studying foundation hardware or the lofting of exceptionally heavy items, as they did this time around in North Dakota.

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