Stubborn pattern set to soak the southeast through early next week

It's been a soggy stretch for the south-central United States over the past week or so as rounds of heavy thunderstorms hit the region with severe weather and flash flooding.

The wet weather will continue heading into early next week—but a touch farther to the east this time. Forecasters expect widespread heavy rain across the southeastern states over the next seven days. Flash flooding is likely in areas typically vulnerable to standing or rising waters.

Check out some of those rainfall totals over the past ten days. Portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana have seen more than 10 inches of rain—much of which fell in a relatively short period of time. Some communities in Louisiana saw more than 7 inches of rain yesterday alone.

A stalled upper-level low over the desert southwest helped fuel and spark those repeated rounds of heavy rain across the south-central states over the past week or so. 

This pattern will start to clear out a bit—and a new upper-level low will stall over the southeast, bringing cooler temperatures and a constant threat for heavy rain into the first half of next week.

While wet weather will cover much of the region from Mobile to Washington and down to Miami, the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread totals of 4-6+ inches of rain from the northeastern Gulf toward the South Carolina Lowcountry.

Beware a risk for flooding across the usual problem areas during bouts of heavy rainfall.

Overall, though, the arrival of steady rain isn't entirely bad news. We've seen patches of moderate to severe drought from Florida to Massachusetts, with the biggest lack of rainfall found over portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, and Florida Peninsula. The impending wet pattern should put a dent in the deficit. 

[Satellite Image: NOAA]

 

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U.S. tornado count running ahead of average as mid-spring arrives

We're halfway through meteorological spring and the United States is rapidly approaching its historical peak in annual tornado activity.

Based on storm surveys conducted by meteorologists with the National Weather Service, the U.S. has racked up a preliminary count of more than 570 tornadoes between January 1 and April 30. That's a solid beat ahead of where we typically stand by this point in the year.

The vast majority of this year's tornadoes touched down in the mid-Mississippi Valley after repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms blossomed between southern Mississippi and central Illinois. 

Here's a closer look at the hardest-hit areas:

We've seen three EF-4 tornadoes—one in southern Mississippi, two in northeastern Arkansas—with the strongest coming in just below scale-topping EF-5 status with maximum estimated winds of about 190 mph. More than a dozen of this year's twisters left behind EF-3 damage, many of which hit Arkansas and Missouri.

The latest count from the Storm Prediction Center reflects about 615 preliminary tornadoes—which is likely an overcount due to multiple reports coming in for the same storm. Even so, we're outpacing tornado climatology for this point in the year due to several major outbreaks that occurred in March and April. 

Tornado activity across the U.S. ramps up in the early spring and comes to a head around the beginning of June before slowly declining through the summer as the jet stream pulls north toward Canada. I hesitate to use the term 'tornado season,' though, because tornadoes are possible any day of the year just about anywhere in the country.

[Top Image: EF-4 tornado damage in Tylertown, Miss., via the National Weather Service]

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