A dangerous storm developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will make landfall as a hurricane Wednesday along the Louisiana coast.
Tropical Storm Francine spent Monday rapidly getting its act together off the eastern shores of Mexico.
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Francine has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm even appears to be developing an eye based on satellite and radar imagery, which is a sign the storm could soon close in on hurricane intensity.
Sea surface temperatures are a few degrees warmer than normal across the western Gulf, partially a result of having next to no storm activity over the region so far this year. (Tropical systems churn up cooler waters from below, even if briefly.)
Given the warm ocean temperatures and favorable environmental conditions around the storm, forecasters expect Francine to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall on the central Louisiana coast during the day Wednesday.
Wind and Storm Surge
The NHC expects Francine to be near peak strength by the time it makes landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
Widespread tree damage and long-lasting power outages are possible where Francine's eyewall makes landfall. Hopefully the worst winds remain over the relatively unpopulated bayous, but Lafayette—home to more than 100,000 people—could find itself in or close to the eyewall based on the current projected track.
Damaging winds are possible as far east as New Orleans and as far west as Beaumont, Texas. The outer edges of the storm could bring winds high enough to cause some downed trees and sporadic power outages.
A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the coast where Francine makes landfall. The latest advisory calls for a storm surge of 5-10 feet where the eye crosses the coastline if landfall coincides with high tide. This is some of the most surge-vulnerable land in the United States. Storm surge flooding can extend many miles inland across southern Louisiana's flat, marshy terrain.
Any eastward jog in the storm could bring more dangerous wind and storm surge closer to New Orleans.
Heavy Rainfall
Tropical downpours are a certainty along Francine's track inland. The majority of deaths associated with landfalling tropical storms are the result of flash flooding from heavy rainfall.
The Weather Prediction Center calls for 5-7+ inches of rain along Francine's track inland, which will pretty closely follow the Mississippi River north of Baton Rouge. Several inches of rain could fall as far west as Little Rock and as far east as Birmingham through the end of the week.
It's also worth noting that little bullseye over upstate South Carolina and adjacent areas. Southerly winds and enhanced moisture associated with Francine flowing up the foothills could produce 3-5 inches of rain over the region, leading to a localized flash flood threat.
Almost all flash flood injuries and deaths are preventable. Never drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until you're in it, and the road itself could be washed out beneath the water. It's not worth the risk to your life or those who have to rescue you or recover your body.
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