Tornado outbreak possible in the Midwest on Monday

Monday looks to be a dangerous weather day across a wide swath of the Midwest as a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms develops over the region.

"A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said in its forecast on Saturday morning.

A low-pressure system lifting toward the international border will drag a slug of warm, unstable air across the Midwestern states, allowing widespread thunderstorms to bloom across the region.

Strong winds aloft will enable many of those storms to grow into supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and strong to intense tornadoes.

Forecasters with the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe weather—a level four out of five—for a large swath of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, as well as western and central Wisconsin.

This moderate risk area includes the cities of St. Paul and Rochester, Minnesota; Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and La Crosse, Wisconsin.

The cities of Minneapolis and Madison are just outside the moderate risk area by a hair, but for all intents and purposes should consider themselves in the level four risk on Monday.

An enhanced risk for severe weather—a level three out of five—radiates out from there to stretch from the international border down through eastern Kansas. In fact, Monday's threat for severe weather extends the length of the cold front from Canada to Mexico.

Severe Weather Safety

Plan in advance where you would go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is at Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. We've already seen a loss of products and experienced forecasters as a result of ongoing cuts, firings, and hiring freezes.

Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

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Maps: Days of severe weather hammer the U.S., historic flooding continues

Days and days of severe weather hammering the central United States have taken a toll. We've seen severe storms every day since March 29, with most of those days featuring an enhanced (level 3/5) risk for severe weather or higher. 

Here are a few maps highlighting the wild weather we've seen over the past week and a half.

A powerful ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. sent temperatures soaring into the upper 80s throughout the region. We peaked at 88°F here in Reidsville, N.C., on Friday afternoon.

A stationary boundary on the outer periphery of that ridge served as the focus for repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms and torrential rains.

Over the past 10 days, more than a foot of rain has fallen across a wide swath of land from central Arkansas through northern Kentucky. 

A gauge near Benton, Kentucky, measured 15.59 inches of rain between 9:00 a.m. April 2 and 9:00 a.m. April 6. The airport in Little Rock, Arkansas, recorded just under a foot of rain over the same period.

This led to widespread major flooding across waterways throughout the region, with some flood gauges recording all-time high water levels.

Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail were also a major concern. We've seen more than 500 tornado warnings issued between March 29 and April 6, the vast majority of which unfolded across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.

It's going to be a while before we know the tornado count or extent of damage across the region, but several EF-3+ tornadoes occurred—especially in Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas. 

During that time period, the Storm Prediction Center received 1,987 reports of severe winds or wind damage, 391 reports of large hail, and 158 tornado reports. It's worth keeping in mind that there weren't 158 tornadoes—many tornado reports can come in for the same storm.

Here's a graphic I created for The Weather Network on Saturday to highlight the persistent risk for severe weather over the past eight days:

Things will start to quiet down heading into next week as the stubborn pattern finally releases its grip and calmer conditions prevail across the eastern two-thirds of the country.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Severe weather deja vu in the central U.S. brings a major flood risk

Welcome to April! Spring is in full swing across the center of the country this week as a significant severe weather threat builds into Wednesday across many of the same areas that saw damaging storms just the other day. A multi-day flash flood risk will build alongside the storms throughout the Mid-South and Ohio Valley.

Let's dive into Wednesday's severe weather risk before we tackle the flash flood threat.

Moderate Risk for Severe on Wednesday

A widespread risk for severe weather will develop through the day Wednesday across the central U.S., stretching from northern Texas northward into Michigan. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather–a level three out of five—for just about everyone from Dallas to Detroit, preparing the region to see storms capable of producing very strong wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

The SPC also issued a moderate risk for severe weather–a level four out of five–across portions of the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys, including Memphis, Paducah, and Evansville, for an increased potential for tornadoes. Some of these tornadoes could be strong or long-lived. 

The greatest threat for severe storms will begin in the afternoon and continue well after dark.

Significant Flash Flood Risk Builds Into This Weekend

A strong ridge of high pressure setting up over the southeast will lock a boundary into place across the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. Moisture-packed southerly winds spiraling around the high will focus waves of heavy rain along this boundary.

As a result, we'll see a major flash flood threat build through this weekend. Forecasters expect as much as 10-15 inches of rain to fall along a stretch of real estate from near Little Rock to near Louisville. A very large swath of 5-10 inches of rain radiates out from that bullseye to cover many major cities throughout the region.

Severe Weather Safety

Flash flooding is exceptionally dangerous. Most flash flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never attempt to drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and it takes very little moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it away.

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

 

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