December 2, 2024

Will North Carolina break its three-year snowless streak tonight?


A disturbance crossing the Appalachians on Monday night could bring parts of North Carolina their first measurable snowfall in nearly three years. There's a lot riding on the word "could," though, and it's just as likely that little to no snow falls during this brief window of opportunity.

There could be enough lift in the atmosphere to support the development of a batch of light snow across central North Carolina between about 9:00 p.m. Monday and 3:00 a.m. Tuesday.

Monday afternoon's forecast from the National Weather Service called for less than an inch of snow across south-central portions of the state, including Charlotte and Asheboro. 


One potential hiccup, as always, is the risk for dry air. It's going to be quite cold tonight. Temperatures were already in the mid-30s before sunset, and we're likely going to dip into the middle to lower 20s through the overnight hours.

Very cold and dry air is no good if you're hoping for snow, especially when you're expecting light snow rather than a solid thumping. It's very likely that we'll see snow on radar, but it'll be virga—evaporating long before it ever reaches the ground.

Even so, just the potential for a scattered dusting of snow is big news around these parts.


It's been a warm couple of winters across North Carolina. As of Sunday, December 1, it's been 1,037 days since January 29, 2022—the last time the airports in Greensboro, Raleigh, and Charlotte recorded more than a trace of snow.

Measurable snow counts as 0.1 inches or greater. A trace of snow occurs when snowflakes melt when they hit the ground, leaving behind no accumulation. 

This is the longest snowless streak on record in Charlotte (records back to 1939), the second-longest in Greensboro (since 1928), and the third-longest streak without measurable snow in Raleigh (since 1944). 

We'll see if anything happens tonight. If not, those snowless streaks will keep on rolling for a while longer still.


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November 27, 2024

Unseasonable chill to sweep U.S. to start December; lake-effect snow to finally begin


It's been a long while since we've started the month of December with any sort of widespread cold air sweeping the United States—but that's what we're in for this week as a surge of Arctic air floods south out of Canada. 

A powerful cold front will send temperatures plummeting over the next couple of days. Subfreezing daytime highs will envelop the Upper Midwest before the chill eventually makes its way down into the Deep South by this weekend.


Looking ahead to next Tuesday, December 4, high temperatures will struggle to make it into the lower 40s along the I-95 megalopolis, with temperatures remaining in the 40s as far south as Birmingham and Little Rock. Even Miami will "only" reach 74°F next Tuesday, the poor things.

It's about time we've had a widespread chill. Temperatures have been running a fever this fall. 


We just have to take a look at the Great Lakes to see how much of an effect that warmth has had so far this season.

Water temperatures across all five lakes are running several degrees Celsius above normal for the final week of November. Parts of Lake Erie are still hovering around 65°F thanks to the relative lack of cold air of late.

Frigid air pushing over very warm lakes will be a recipe for ample lake-effect snow beginning Thursday on Lake Superior and continuing for all the lakes through the weekend and well into next week.


West-northwesterly winds will create a long fetch across Lakes Superior, Erie, Huron, and Ontario, creating narrow corridors of very heavy snowfall on the downwind shores. Some areas will see more than a foot of snow by Saturday morning, and these totals are likely going to soar higher as the lake-effect snow event continues into next week.

Happy Thanksgiving! Winter is here (...for now, anyway).


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November 19, 2024

Phenomenal bomb cyclone develops off the Pacific Northwest


An exceptionally powerful low-pressure system developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon is a sight to behold on satellite imagery.

The storm is undergoing bombogenesis—hence the "bomb cyclone" moniker. Bombogenesis occurs when a low-pressure system rapidly intensifies at a rate of about 24 millibars in 24 hours.

Our low-pressure system has more than doubled that rate of intensification. At the time of this post, its minimum central pressure had dropped from 981 mb to 955 mb in just six hours between 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC. It's likely going to strengthen further heading into Tuesday evening.

Such a remarkable rate of intensification is a sheer display of the atmosphere's power. 

A broad upper-level trough over the northern Pacific Ocean coincided with two jet streaks, or regions of stronger winds within the larger jet stream. Winds collide together and fan out as they blow around troughs and as they enter and exit these jet streaks. 

A model image of the jet stream on Tuesday morning. Source: Tropical Tidbits

When winds fan out—or diverge—it leaves a void in the upper levels of the atmosphere that air from the surface has to rush upward to fill. This upward motion leaves less air, and lower air pressure, at the surface. This is how most of our everyday low-pressure systems develop and sustain themselves.

Multiple sources of divergence working together can force a massive amount of air to rise into the upper atmosphere, very quickly creating a powerful center of low pressure at the surface. That trough combined forces with the two jet streaks to rapidly intensify this storm as it swirls off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.


While the center of the storm will remain far offshore, folks on land are certainly feeling its effects.

Widespread high winds will likely lead to tree damage and power outages from Oregon to British Columbia. Flooding rains are also expected as the storm pushes a surge of tropical moisture ashore. Rainfall totals of 7-10+ inches are expected across sections of northern California through the weekend.


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November 13, 2024

Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sara brewing in the Caribbean


A robust tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea is on the cusp of growing into a tropical storm. This system, which would earn the name Sara, is forecast to bring extensive flooding to Honduras before potentially entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.

The National Hurricane Center began issuing forecasts for 'Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen' on Wednesday. This mouthful of a designation allows the NHC to issue watches and warnings for a disturbance before it formally becomes a tropical system, giving folks on land extra time to prepare for dangerous conditions.

Tropical storm and hurricane watches are in effect for the northern coast of Honduras as this system approaches the region.


Soon-to-be Sara is currently a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms over the western Caribbean. The disturbance is in a favorable environment to develop and strengthen over the next couple of days.

The Caribbean is home to the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin, with sea surface temperatures hovering in the upper 80s. As a result, the storm could be close to hurricane strength as it approaches the northern coast of Honduras this weekend.

A large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States will cut off the storm's ability to immediately turn north, forcing it to linger around Honduras for several days. This is why the below forecast track looks like such a hot mess—the storm will remain in the same general vicinity for about 48 hours.

Forecasters noted that this forecast is tough right now because 1) the storm has yet to form, and 2) it's going to be very close to land, which introduces its own uncertainty in terms of the storm's ultimate strength.


Regardless of its intensity, the stalling storm will produce flooding rains across Honduras' highly vulnerable terrain. Widespread rainfall totals of 10 to 20+ inches are expected throughout northern Honduras, which could lead to "life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides," according to the NHC.

The remaining question: where will it go from here?

Most weather models show the ridge breaking down by late this weekend as a strong trough digs across the United States, allowing the storm to finally begin pulling away from Honduras and toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This track would pull the system (or its eventual remnants) into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

A northeasterly turn toward Florida is likely given the potent trough that'll swing into the region early next week. It's way too early to know what kind of impacts this storm or its remnants could have on the state, but it's something to keep in mind heading into the weekend.

Make sure your hurricane preparedness kits and plans are still ready to go in case this storm threatens hazardous conditions next week. 


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November 11, 2024

A new tropical system may develop in the Caribbean this week


The Atlantic hurricane season isn't over just yet. 

Forecasters are watching yet another disturbance in the Caribbean Sea for potential tropical development later this week. The system has a medium (50 percent) chance of development, according to Monday afternoon's tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance, which is currently south of Hispaniola, will gradually move into the western Caribbean over the next couple of days.


It'll find an environment with relatively low wind shear, decent humidity, and plenty of warm waters to fuel ample thunderstorm development. We could have a tropical depression in the region by the end of the week.

If this system manages to become a tropical storm, it would earn the name Sara as the eighteenth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

This is right where you would expect to see tropical development this late in the year.


High wind shear and puffs of cold, dry air blowing off North America make for an increasingly hostile environment across the Atlantic basin. The favorable conditions of the Caribbean remain one final refuge for late-season storms to try pulling their act together.

Make sure your hurricane preparedness kits and plans are still ready to go in case anything threatens land over the next few weeks. As we've seen several times this year, you don't have to live near the coast for flooding, power outages, and tornadoes to affect communities hundreds of miles inland.


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November 1, 2024

New York City witnesses its driest month since records began in 1869


It's official: October 2024 was New York City's driest month in recorded history.

Any record in New York City is exceptional given that Central Park has one of the longest periods of record in the United States, with regular observations stretching all the way back to January 1869.

The city's observation station only picked up a measly 0.01" of rain during a light shower on October 29, which was the only measurable precipitation recorded there during the entire month. Given that scant amount of rainfall, the city has never witnessed a completely dry month devoid of any measurable precipitation.


A short drive down I-95 finds the longest dry streak on record in Philadelphia, where records began back in 1871. The city has gone 34 days without measurable precipitation as of November 1, and they're likely going to pad that streak heading into next week.

October 2024 was also Philadelphia's first month on record without any measurable precipitation. Previously, the city's driest-ever month was October 1963, during which they saw only 0.09" of rain.

This isn't just a regional lack of precipitation. As I outlined last week, most of the United States was unusually dry through the month of October save for a few select locations.


The latest update of the United States Drought Monitor found that 87.16% of the country was abnormally dry or mired in some level of drought.


This is the greatest area of aridity the USDM has ever measured since they started keeping track in January 2000.

A pattern shift heading deeper into November should reverse the trend a bit, especially in the Midwest and across the southern Plains. However, it's likely that ridging will continue to dominate the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, bringing above-seasonal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions to the region for a few more weeks.


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October 24, 2024

Fake hurricanes, denied aid: This election is about reality versus conspiracy theories


How sad.

How sad that someone at NOAA had to spend the time workshopping, writing, and approving a statement assuring the public that we can’t control the weather. How sad that the lie exists at all. How sad that people are so willing to believe that lie. How sad that people in the highest reaches of power are willing to fan the flames of that lie. 

But that's been our mantra for the past decade: How sad.

It's now or never

Conspiracy theories and outright lies that used to fester on the sidelines are now mainstream schools of thought among folks who are desperate to confirm their beliefs and suspicions. This kind of frightening detachment from reality has always been a nagging undertow running beneath society, but it’s gotten so much worse over the past decade.

It starts at the top. Tuesday, November 5, 2024, may be our last meaningful chance to reject this rot that’s eating away at the core reality that binds us together as a country.


Every election is pitched as “the most important of our lifetime.” But there have been precious few moments in American history when we’ve faced a crossroads over our shared sense of reality. It’s not just a question of what policies we want—it’s a question of whether we exist in the same universe or not.

If you think things are bad now, it's almost assuredly going to get worse if the nation’s foremost conspiracy theorist and unabashed liar is elected to sit behind the Resolute Desk again.

Endless lies

It’s not a partisan statement to call Donald Trump a conspiracy theorist and unabashed liar. He’s proven time and time again that he’s more than willing and handily able to create his own reality when the real world doesn’t suit his needs.

Let’s leave aside Trump's 34 felony convictions and attempted coup d’etat—and just stick to the weather.

The former president’s tenuous grip on reality is exemplified by his fraught relationship with the field of meteorology.

His very first lie upon entering office on January 20, 2017, involved the new president telling a group of supporters that it didn’t rain on his inauguration—even though video clearly showed it raining about one minute into his address. It's the avalanche of little lies that pave the way for the big lies.

Trump drew on a NHC forecast map to extend the cone to Alabama on Sept. 1, 2019

He mistakenly warned Alabama that Hurricane Dorian would be “much worse than anticipated,” then used a Sharpie to alter a National Hurricane Center forecast map rather than admit he was wrong. The fracas ended with the White House threatening to fire NOAA’s leadership if they didn’t participate in the ensuing coverup.

He proposed slashing more than $75,000,000 from the National Weather Service's budget in 2020, which would have fired 250 meteorologists, curtailed critical surface and upper-air weather observations, and ended a valuable research project to study tornadoes in the southeastern U.S.

He issued a controversial pardon while Category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas because he “assumed ratings would be far higher” while people were already watching the news.

He delayed meaningful aid to Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria by conditioning billions of dollars in disaster aid on political goals like prohibiting the island from raising the minimum wage, and implied that further aid to the island was contingent upon the territory's political leadership showing "appreciation" for him.

He opposed sending federal aid to California during the state’s deadly 2018 wildfire season because it’s a heavily Democratic state. He reportedly only agreed to send aid after finding out he won the counties affected by the wildfires.

He did the same exact thing with Washington state—only they didn't receive their disaster aid until Trump left office.

And those are just the lowlights of his four-year term.

Lies are a group effort

One of his biggest supporters in Congress—who once questioned if California’s wildfires were started by Jewish-controlled space lasers—accused an unnamed "they" of controlling the weather in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
Hurricane Milton on October 7, 2024

She certainly wasn’t alone herself in fanning the flames of that bizarre conspiracy theory. So many folks took to social media with cult-like fervor to accuse the government of controlling the weather to punish red states that meteorologists received death threats over the ordeal and NOAA had to dedicate time and resources to debunking the false claims.

Again…how sad.

A high-stakes outcome      

We know what happened before. But what are the consequences of a second Trump administration? Let's bypass everything else and keep sticking to the weather.

Project 2025, his potential administration's blueprint for a second term, calls for restoring Schedule F to remove protections from civil service employees. This change would make vast swaths of federal workers fireable by the White House.

Remember Sharpiegate? Under that proposed plan, he likely could've fired every meteorologist at NWS Birmingham for not playing along with his coverup. This could jeopardize any of the career scientists who work for NOAA if they unknowingly run afoul of the administration's will.

Trump would likely see his party in control of both chambers of Congress. This grip on power would afford him the opportunity to make those $75,000,000+ in cuts to the National Weather Service, following through on what he tried to do during his final year in office.

An emboldened Trump would come into office knowing he would face no real consequences for his actions. Firings, squashed investigations, denying aid, drawing on weather forecasts, interfering with research—everything is on the table when nobody is around to say 'stop.' 

And then there's the presidency as a role model for everyday Americans. He would again use the highest office in the land to trumpet lies and conspiracy theories about every topic under the sun, including the weather.

Bad hurricanes, lethal tornadoes, and devastating floods will happen during the next president's four years in office. He'd have his say in the messaging and response to those disasters—just as he did during Dorian, just as he did during the wildfires, and just as his entire orbit did during Helene and Milton.

If you think it's bad now how many lies and conspiracy theories everyday people are bouncing around on social media, wait until their most powerful enabler sits in the Oval Office again.

The real world is scary enough without making stuff up

Conspiracy theories are security blankets for adults frightened by a rapidly changing and interconnected world in which bad things sometimes happen. It's scary and upsetting that tornadoes and hurricanes and wildfires can wipe away entire communities in moments.

It’s more comforting to believe that bad things happen because bad people are making them happen. If bad things aren’t random—if bad things are controlled by bad people—then we might have a chance to stop those tornadoes from forming, to stop that hurricane from hitting land, and to keep those wildfires from charring everything we’ve known and loved.

Unfortunately, a growing percentage of the American public has fallen so detached from reality that they’re unwilling or completely unable to believe that the real world doesn’t work that way. They’re more eager to believe that their perceived enemies control hurricanes than they are to accept basic elementary school meteorology.

There is one presidential candidate willing and eager to allow that alternate universe to flourish, to shred the reality that binds our society together in order to get what he wants.

This is too important. Please don't let him succeed.

[Image of the White House courtesy of Unsplash.]


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October 21, 2024

New York City may soon set the record for its longest dry streak in 155 years


New York City has one of the longest sets of detailed weather records in the United States. An observation station has been continually active in Central Park since 1869, just four years after the end of the Civil War. 

That historical depth makes any all-time records a noteworthy occurrence in New York City, and we could be nearing one of those milestones in the next week or two. The city may soon set a record for its longest dry streak ever observed.


Despite two major hurricanes making landfall in the southeast, it's been an exceptionally dry few months over most of the United States. The latest update of the U.S. Drought Monitor tells the tale: 77 percent of the U.S. is abnormally dry or mired in some level of drought, including a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic states.

We haven't seen measurable precipitation at New York's Central Park since September 29th.


Every day since then has been dry as a bone—and the forecast doesn't have much hope for measurable rain in the next five to seven days. 

This is quickly turning into one of the city's driest spells on record. The period from September 29 through October 21 made for 22 days without a drop of rain falling in the gauge. The ongoing dry spell will rapidly start ticking up this chart as the arid days wear on.

If current forecasts hold, we're likely going to secure the #2 spot before Halloween. Toppling the all-time record of 36 consecutive dry days is a tall order.

Why so long without rain? Persistent ridges of high pressure building over the Northeast have deflected rainmaking systems to the north and south, preventing precipitation from ever reaching New York City. This familiar pattern will likely continue for at least the next seven days. 

[Satellite: NOAA]


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