DAMWeather

June 15, 2026

Flooding rains expected as tropical disturbance meanders in the Gulf

A tropical disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will fuel repeated rounds of heavy rain over a large swath of the southern U.S. over the next couple of days.

This sizable area of unsettled weather will tap into a vast reserve of atmospheric moisture to produce widespread heavy rainfall from southern Texas east through Georgia.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the disturbance a medium (50%) chance of developing into an organized system over the next couple of days.

A system doesn't need to organize in order to create a significant hazard. Folks in this region are very familiar with unnamed disturbances causing more problems than some full-blown tropical storms. A disorganized disturbance brought extensive flooding to Louisiana in August 2016.

Forecasters expect widespread rainfall totals of 5-7+ inches over the next couple of days, mostly centered along and north of the coast from Houston to Mobile.

This kind of rain will lead to major flooding concerns, especially in areas where lots of rain falls in a short period of time.

One bright spot is that many of the areas in line for drenching rains are currently experiencing a long-term drought. This will go a long way toward helping to alleviate the major rainfall deficit we've seen build in recent months.

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June 1, 2026

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins

Dennis Mersereau 6/01/2026 02:34:00 PM hurricane season Leave a Reply

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on Monday, kicking off the six-month period of the year most favorable to the development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Seasonal Outlooks

Forecasters with both NOAA and Colorado State University expect below-normal tropical activity across the Atlantic this year, largely due to a potentially strong El Niño developing over in the Pacific.

This pattern of warmer ocean waters in the Pacific tends to create wind shear that can disrupt Atlantic tropical disturbances before they can thrive.

Despite predictions of below-normal activity, there's some uncertainty surrounding the forecast due to warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters and other factors that may prove favorable for several tropical systems to sneak through the overall pattern.

Of course, it only takes one storm making landfall to make this a bad year.

Storm Names

Last used in 2020, this year's list of Atlantic hurricane names begins with Arthur and runs through Wilfred. The roster features Leah for the first time as a substitute for Laura after its retirement due to the storm that devastated southwestern Louisiana in August 2020.

Seasonal Progression

A typical hurricane season follows a familiar pattern.

Early-season storms tend form close to North America and the Caribbean, often the product of decaying fronts and thunderstorm complexes.

We start to see activity take root farther out in the tropical Atlantic as the season progresses. Disturbances rolling off the western shores of Africa often seed the development of our classic peak-season storms.

The height of the hurricane season arrives from mid-August through mid-September, historically peaking around September 10th. This is when conditions are most favorable for at least one storm lurking on the horizon.

As we see early in the season, late-forming storms in October and November usually develop closer to land. These systems can be deceptively strong, and their proximity to land makes them especially dangerous given the reduced lead time before they make landfall.

The season officially ends on November 30th, but it's not unheard of to see activity persist beyond that arbitrary ending date.

May 26, 2026

El Niño could dictate this year's hurricane seasons, but it's not a sure thing

Dennis Mersereau 5/26/2026 01:34:00 PM atlantic hurricane pacific Leave a Reply

NOAA recently released its outlooks for the 2026 hurricane seasons across the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific basins.

The outlooks are in line with forecasts of a strengthening El Niño pattern heading into the upcoming summer and fall months, though there's a significant dollop of uncertainty surrounding the Atlantic's forecast.

Conditions are rapidly changing in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean where an El Niño is expected to build over the coming weeks and months. Water temperatures are already warming up, and there's a significant pool of very warm water lurking just beneath the surface.

Tropical cyclone tracking around North America is divvied up between three basins: Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific.

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific runs from May 15 through November 30, with the six-month period running from June 1 through November 30 over in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA's outlook calls for above-normal activity this season across both the eastern and central Pacific, while forecasters expect a below-normal storm count over in the Atlantic.

Why the split call? The abnormally warm waters of an El Niño event affect these basins in different ways.

El Niño years typically see favorable conditions for tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Pacific basins, given warm waters and otherwise agreeable atmospheric setups.

The same unsettled weather that makes the Pacific favorable for development can send destructive wind shear blowing east over the Atlantic, making that basin frequently hostile to tropical systems.

That said, NOAA noted that there's greater uncertainty in the Atlantic's forecast given the warmer-than-normal waters and increased potential for disturbances across the basin. This may lead to more opportunities for systems to pop up across the region.

Don't let your guard down if you live near the Atlantic coast. No matter what the forecast holds, it only takes one storm hitting land to make this a bad season for communities in harm's way.

How quickly can things change?

The 1992 hurricane season was extremely quiet. The first named storm of the year didn't form until the end of August.

It was Hurricane Andrew.

[Satellite image courtesy of CIRA Satellite Library.]

May 19, 2026

Plenty of heavy rain on the way through the holiday weekend, thank goodness

Dennis Mersereau 5/19/2026 02:48:00 PM drought rain Leave a Reply

The atmosphere sometimes has a twisted sense of humor.

We go months without beneficial rain across the southern and eastern United States, and then we get a long slog of daily rainfall chances just in time for the unofficial kickoff of the summer season.

The upcoming pattern is ideal for waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms to wash over portions of the southern and eastern United States over the next seven days. Many of these regions are mired in drought conditions and need any rain they can get--though it'll be too much of a good thing for some areas.

A ridge of high pressure near/over the Southeast, combined with a series of troughs moving into the central U.S., will set up persistent boundaries that stretch from southern Texas through the Mid-Atlantic.

Steady moisture streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico will run over this boundary and fuel multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms through this week and into the long holiday weekend.

Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center are calling for as much as 5-7+ inches of rain across a wide swath of Texas and Louisiana, as well as portions of Mississippi and Arkansas. We could see several inches of rain as far north as Lake Erie.

Unfortunately, the upper-level setup will prevent much of the rain from falling across areas that desperately need the precipitation, such as Florida and much of Georgia.

Last week's update of the U.S. Drought Monitor found 99.00% of the Southeast (AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, VA) in a moderate drought or worse.

May 4, 2026

Beneficial rain on the way this week for drought-stricken parts of the south

Dennis Mersereau 5/04/2026 02:34:00 PM drought rain southeast Leave a Reply

A slow-moving boundary expected to slump from the Midwest to the Southeast through the end of this week will bring some beneficial rain to areas that desperate need any precipitation they can get.

We started May with an upper-level trough parked over the Great Lakes, which was responsible for the spell of below-average temperatures we've seen across much of the eastern U.S. in recent days.

The trough will reload (so to speak) over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Several areas of low pressure will develop along the boundary between these two features, giving rise to widespread rainfall and a risk for severe thunderstorms at times.

Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center expect a couple of inches of rain across a wide swath of the Southeast through the end of the week, with more than 3 inches of rain possible through portions of southern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia.

This is great news for a region that's been socked in a worsening drought for months now. Last week's update of the United States Drought Monitor showed 94.85% of the Southeast in a severe drought or worse.

It's worth noting that there's a decent chance for notable precipitation (both rain and snow) for much of Colorado, where extreme drought conditions are developing hand-in-hand with a record-low snowpack across the state.

April 25, 2026

440+ tornadoes reported so far in 2026

Dennis Mersereau 4/25/2026 10:34:00 AM tornadoes Leave a Reply

The twister that struck near Enid, Oklahoma, this past Thursday received a (preliminary) EF-4 rating from the National Weather Service. This was the strongest tornado confirmed so far in 2026.

Tornado activity across the United States is running slightly ahead of pace for this point in the year, which is unusual given that most of the activity has avoided parts of the southeast where you'd expect bad storms to lurk in March and April.

Between January 1 and April 24, we've seen around 448 confirmed tornadoes from California to Vermont.

I say "around" 448 because that might be a slight overcount due to the way the NWS reports tornadoes. Paths that cross from one office's area of responsibility to another are sometimes (temporarily) counted as two tornadoes in these damage surveys.

Those tornadoes include...

EF-5: 0
EF-4: 1
EF-3: 6
EF-2: 37
EF-1: 225
EF-0: 153
EF-Unknown: 26

Here's a closer look at the bulk of those tornado tracks:

It's very unusual to see so many tornado tracks across the Midwest this early in the season; activity usually waits until the summer months to start lifting north. This is largely due to the prominent ridging we've seen over the southeastern states during the past couple of months, which is responsible for shunting the active storm track farther north.

We're likely going to see these numbers tick up over the next couple of days as our active pattern produces several additional rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest states.

The U.S. usually experiences a peak in tornado activity around the beginning of June.

April 21, 2026

Eastern drought continues getting worse as rains drench the Great Lakes

Dennis Mersereau 4/21/2026 01:39:00 PM drought extreme rainfall Leave a Reply

A dramatic split-screen has developed in recent weeks as relentless rains over the Great Lakes and Midwest stand in stark contrast to the worsening drought over the southeastern states.

Persistent ridges of high pressure over the southeast have kept conditions hotter and drier than normal since the beginning of March. Many communities have already seen temperatures creep into the 90s, which is more typical of late May than early to mid-April.

The orientation of the jet stream, along with these repetitive ridges, have forced rain and thunderstorms to deflect around the southeast and hammer the Midwest and Great Lakes instead.

Drought is steadily worsening from Texas to New Jersey amid the lack of rainfall. The worst deficits are building in Florida, where places like Tallahassee, Tampa, and Jacksonville have fallen behind by 5-10+ inches since last autumn.

A look at the percent of normal precipitation over the past 30 days does a fantastic job outlining the heat ridges over the southeast and the active storm track that's extended from Texas to Ontario.

Folks across the Midwest and Great Lakes have had it rough since the start of meteorological spring.

A seemingly endless stream of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall have led to destructive tornadoes and damaging hailstorms throughout the region.

The outline of severe weather reports since March 1 looks more like something you'd expect to see in the middle of summer rather than the middle of spring. We'd usually find the worst thunderstorms around Mississippi and Alabama in April.

Bouts of severe flooding have accompanied the persistent rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the region. We've even seen extensive flooding over the border in portions of Ontario as the heavy rainfall combines with rapid snowmelt.

Graphics courtesy of the CPC

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for May isn't terribly optimistic for dramatic improvement for either extreme.

Forecasters expect enhanced odds of generally warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern tier of the country, with no strong signal for either extreme rainfall or extreme dryness.

April 13, 2026

Eastern U.S. to endure record-breaking heat wave this week

Dennis Mersereau 4/13/2026 03:44:00 PM drought heat southeast Leave a Reply

The spring of intense heat rolls on this week as a significant ridge of high pressure building over the eastern United States cranks up summer-like temperatures across the region.

Long spells of bright sunshine will help boost readings from the upper 80s to mid-90s at times.

The most widespread heat will arrive on Wednesday, which is when we'll see toasty temperatures stretch as far north as New York. Readings could even climb to near 80 degrees up in Boston and Albany.

We'll watch the ridge pull back a bit heading into the latter half of the week, focusing the summer-like air mass over the southeastern states. Long stretches of temperatures well above seasonal will blanket everyone from central Florida to southern Virginia during this heat wave.

This upcoming stretch will feature the warmest temperatures we've seen since early last autumn. Over the past 60 days, daytime highs in the 90s have remained relegated to portions of Florida and pockets of coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Quite a few heat records may fall in the coming days.

According to the National Weather Service's latest forecast, 133 record highs and 262 record warm low temperatures are at risk of falling between Tuesday afternoon and Sunday morning.

This extended period of hot and dry weather is bad news for a region dealing with ever-worsening drought.

Last Tuesday's update of the United States Drought Monitor found that drought covered nearly 94% of the southeastern states, with one-third of the region enduring extreme or exceptional drought conditions. We can expect these numbers to look even worse in the next couple of weekly updates.