Sad sack of clouds becomes Atlantic's first named storm of 2025

A center of low pressure over the north-central Atlantic Ocean earned the distinction of becoming the basin's first named tropical system of the year on Tuesday.

After several days of playing "will it, won't it," the system displayed enough thunderstorm activity near the center of the storm to qualify as Tropical Storm Andrea.

The National Hurricane Center wrote in their forecast discussion: "Even though deep convection is now decreasing, due to the persistent convection overnight and pulsing convection over the past 36 hours, the system has met the criteria of being classified as a tropical storm, albeit a marginal one, making Tropical Storm Andrea the first Atlantic storm of the year."

That's meteorologist-ese for "it's a sad sack of clouds." Andrea will remain out to sea and should fall apart by Wednesday morning.

Climatologically speaking, the Atlantic's first named storm usually forms around June 20th, so we're only a few days behind on that front. The heart of the season remains a long way off—activity usually ramps up in August before reaching its peak during the second week of September.

Seasonal outlooks published by both NOAA and Colorado State University call for an above-average season across the Atlantic in the weeks and months ahead. These forecasts are based on warmer-than-usual ocean waters, an uptick in monsoon activity over western Africa, and a lack of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

Make sure you're prepared for hurricane season well before a storm forms—whether you're on the coast or hundreds of miles inland.

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Upcoming heat wave isn't "just summer." Heat is a prolific killer.

The first major heat wave of the season is on the way for a large swath of the eastern United States, with a prolonged stretch of daytime high temperatures in the 90s with heat indices in the 100s likely.

Every time we get a big heat wave, social media lights up with that classic line: "It's called summer."

Always typed with the sneering smugness of a seventh grader, that three-word phrase is a catch-all to wave away any concern about an upcoming spell of dangerously hot temperatures.

Extreme heat is deadly

Heat is deadly. It's always been deadly. Lots and lots of people died "back in the day" during heat waves. Lots and lots of people still die during heat waves. You just don't hear as much about it because their deaths weren't caused by dramatic winds or rushing waters. 

Extreme heat caused nearly half of all weather-related fatalities between 2014 and 2024—often surpassing the tolls exacted by tornado outbreaks, major hurricane landfalls, and devastating flash flood events.

Why extreme heat kills

Heat waves exact large human cost because of humidity, hot nights, and longevity. 

Humidity: Sweat cools off our bodies through evaporative cooling—water absorbs heat when it evaporates from liquid to gas. This process pulls heat from our skin to cool our body temperature on a hot day. Excess moisture in the air interferes with this process by preventing sweat from evaporating efficiently, even when you have fans running. The heat index accounts for the combined stress that heat and humidity place on your body.

Hot nights: People who live without air conditioning rely on cooler nighttime temperatures to provide their bodies relief from a hot day. Hot days and elevated nighttime temperatures—alongside smothering humidity—robs these folks of the ability to cool off at night. 

Longevity: The compounding effects of stifling hot days and steamy nights takes a significant toll on vulnerable people. Those without access to air conditioning, folks working outdoors, and chronically ill individuals are highly susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Upcoming heat wave

Image: Tropical Tidbits

A classic summertime heat event will build east of the Rockies heading into this weekend.

We'll see a large and strong upper-level ridge develop and move toward the Ohio Valley on Saturday, lingering over the eastern half of the country well into next week. 

Air sinks beneath ridges, warming up and drying out as it descends toward the ground. Very strong and stubborn ridges of high pressure like this can trigger a feedback cycle that compounds the effects of heat and humidity for days on end. Meteorologists sometimes like to call this a "heat dome." 

As a result, extreme heat is likely to build over a vast swath of the country beginning this weekend. The above graphic shows the National Weather Service's experimental "HeatRisk" product, which conveys the potential danger of predicted heat. Communities in the "major impacts" and "extreme impacts" zones could see conditions that may threaten the health of even physically fit individuals. 

Widespread heat alerts are likely.

It only takes heat index values or air temperatures up around 100°F to trigger heat advisories across much of the northern United States. Remember, the impacts of heat are relative. Folks in the south are more acclimated to muggy heat than folks up north, so lower temperatures can have a higher impact in, say, Toledo than Mobile.

Get ready for a long and dangerously hot stretch of weather heading into next week. Heat is no joke—and don't let the naysayers convince you otherwise.

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Huge hail, ripping winds—PDS severe weather watches are relatively rare

Sunday was quite the day on the southern Plains as forecasters tracked a severe weather outbreak capable of producing giant hailstones and destructive wind gusts.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued two relatively rare particularly dangerous situation (PDS) severe thunderstorm watches for a large swath of the region through Sunday evening.

How rare was this setup?

Extreme instability fueled an unusually robust risk for severe thunderstorms across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on Sunday. As we see with so many severe weather outbreaks, it was a one-two punch: first supercells with a threat for tornadoes and huge hail, then a squall line capable of producing widespread damaging winds. 

Given the setup, the SPC pulled no punches in their severe thunderstorm watches. Forecasters advised that the strongest storms could produce hail up to 5 inches in diameter—larger than a DVD—as well as wind gusts in excess of 100 mph.

Large hail and damaging winds were common throughout the northern half of Texas as storms progressed through the afternoon and past sunset. While many communities made it through the day unscathed, not everyone was so lucky.

A nasty supercell southeast of Amarillo, Texas, produced softball size hail near Claude and a 90 mph wind gust near Lakeview. A little farther down the road, a weather station near the town of Goree measured a 100 mph wind gust. 

The SPC adds the phrase "particularly dangerous situation" to severe thunderstorm or tornado watches during setups that could pack unusual intensity across the region.

A PDS tornado watch is issued when forecasters are confident in an outbreak of strong, long-lived tornadoes. A PDS severe thunderstorm watch is reserved for the potential for widespread destructive hail or winds—much as we saw on Sunday.

Including the two issued this weekend, we've only seen 168 PDS watches since the Iowa Environmental Mesonet began keeping track in 2006. This equates to about 5 per year. 142 (85%) of those were tornado watches, while the remaining 26 (15%) were severe thunderstorm watches.

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Low chance of Atlantic's first named storm this week

Welcome back to that time of year—a tiresome six-month marathon of watching centers of low pressure and disturbances for signs of tropical development. 

We've got our first candidate on the board just after the official kickoff of this year's Atlantic hurricane season.

Low Odds of Development This Week

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are monitoring a developing low-pressure system off the coast of the southeastern states for potential development. The area had a 10 percent chance of development on Tuesday afternoon—not a great opportunity, but not impossible either.

Regardless of development, plenty of gloomy and showery weather is on tap for coastal communities heading into this weekend. The National Weather Service is calling for several inches of additional rainfall from southern Florida through eastern North Carolina. 

Potentially Busy Season Ahead

Conditions appear favorable for a potentially active Atlantic hurricane season this year. Both NOAA and Colorado State University expect an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, exceeding the normal count of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

If these forecasts come to pass, this would be our tenth (!!!) above-average season in a row—a relentless slog that's seen ten scale-topping Category 5 hurricanes, plus a barrage of flood disasters too numerous to remember offhand. 

This year's list of storm names begins with Andrea and continues through Wendy, skipping the letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z for lack of replacements should one warrant retirement. This list of names was last used in 2019, and it features a new addition in Dexter after the retirement of Dorian.

In the unlikely—but not unprecedented—event we run through all 21 storm names, the 22nd named storm of the year would be drawn from a list of supplemental names developed by the World Meteorological Organization after the historic 2020 hurricane season tore into the Greek alphabet.

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Stubborn pattern set to soak the southeast through early next week

It's been a soggy stretch for the south-central United States over the past week or so as rounds of heavy thunderstorms hit the region with severe weather and flash flooding.

The wet weather will continue heading into early next week—but a touch farther to the east this time. Forecasters expect widespread heavy rain across the southeastern states over the next seven days. Flash flooding is likely in areas typically vulnerable to standing or rising waters.

Check out some of those rainfall totals over the past ten days. Portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana have seen more than 10 inches of rain—much of which fell in a relatively short period of time. Some communities in Louisiana saw more than 7 inches of rain yesterday alone.

A stalled upper-level low over the desert southwest helped fuel and spark those repeated rounds of heavy rain across the south-central states over the past week or so. 

This pattern will start to clear out a bit—and a new upper-level low will stall over the southeast, bringing cooler temperatures and a constant threat for heavy rain into the first half of next week.

While wet weather will cover much of the region from Mobile to Washington and down to Miami, the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread totals of 4-6+ inches of rain from the northeastern Gulf toward the South Carolina Lowcountry.

Beware a risk for flooding across the usual problem areas during bouts of heavy rainfall.

Overall, though, the arrival of steady rain isn't entirely bad news. We've seen patches of moderate to severe drought from Florida to Massachusetts, with the biggest lack of rainfall found over portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, and Florida Peninsula. The impending wet pattern should put a dent in the deficit. 

[Satellite Image: NOAA]

 

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U.S. tornado count running ahead of average as mid-spring arrives

We're halfway through meteorological spring and the United States is rapidly approaching its historical peak in annual tornado activity.

Based on storm surveys conducted by meteorologists with the National Weather Service, the U.S. has racked up a preliminary count of more than 570 tornadoes between January 1 and April 30. That's a solid beat ahead of where we typically stand by this point in the year.

The vast majority of this year's tornadoes touched down in the mid-Mississippi Valley after repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms blossomed between southern Mississippi and central Illinois. 

Here's a closer look at the hardest-hit areas:

We've seen three EF-4 tornadoes—one in southern Mississippi, two in northeastern Arkansas—with the strongest coming in just below scale-topping EF-5 status with maximum estimated winds of about 190 mph. More than a dozen of this year's twisters left behind EF-3 damage, many of which hit Arkansas and Missouri.

The latest count from the Storm Prediction Center reflects about 615 preliminary tornadoes—which is likely an overcount due to multiple reports coming in for the same storm. Even so, we're outpacing tornado climatology for this point in the year due to several major outbreaks that occurred in March and April. 

Tornado activity across the U.S. ramps up in the early spring and comes to a head around the beginning of June before slowly declining through the summer as the jet stream pulls north toward Canada. I hesitate to use the term 'tornado season,' though, because tornadoes are possible any day of the year just about anywhere in the country.

[Top Image: EF-4 tornado damage in Tylertown, Miss., via the National Weather Service]

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Tornado outbreak possible in the Midwest on Monday

Monday looks to be a dangerous weather day across a wide swath of the Midwest as a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms develops over the region.

"A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said in its forecast on Saturday morning.

A low-pressure system lifting toward the international border will drag a slug of warm, unstable air across the Midwestern states, allowing widespread thunderstorms to bloom across the region.

Strong winds aloft will enable many of those storms to grow into supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and strong to intense tornadoes.

Forecasters with the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe weather—a level four out of five—for a large swath of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, as well as western and central Wisconsin.

This moderate risk area includes the cities of St. Paul and Rochester, Minnesota; Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and La Crosse, Wisconsin.

The cities of Minneapolis and Madison are just outside the moderate risk area by a hair, but for all intents and purposes should consider themselves in the level four risk on Monday.

An enhanced risk for severe weather—a level three out of five—radiates out from there to stretch from the international border down through eastern Kansas. In fact, Monday's threat for severe weather extends the length of the cold front from Canada to Mexico.

Severe Weather Safety

Plan in advance where you would go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is at Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. We've already seen a loss of products and experienced forecasters as a result of ongoing cuts, firings, and hiring freezes.

Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

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Maps: Days of severe weather hammer the U.S., historic flooding continues

Days and days of severe weather hammering the central United States have taken a toll. We've seen severe storms every day since March 29, with most of those days featuring an enhanced (level 3/5) risk for severe weather or higher. 

Here are a few maps highlighting the wild weather we've seen over the past week and a half.

A powerful ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. sent temperatures soaring into the upper 80s throughout the region. We peaked at 88°F here in Reidsville, N.C., on Friday afternoon.

A stationary boundary on the outer periphery of that ridge served as the focus for repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms and torrential rains.

Over the past 10 days, more than a foot of rain has fallen across a wide swath of land from central Arkansas through northern Kentucky. 

A gauge near Benton, Kentucky, measured 15.59 inches of rain between 9:00 a.m. April 2 and 9:00 a.m. April 6. The airport in Little Rock, Arkansas, recorded just under a foot of rain over the same period.

This led to widespread major flooding across waterways throughout the region, with some flood gauges recording all-time high water levels.

Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail were also a major concern. We've seen more than 500 tornado warnings issued between March 29 and April 6, the vast majority of which unfolded across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.

It's going to be a while before we know the tornado count or extent of damage across the region, but several EF-3+ tornadoes occurred—especially in Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas. 

During that time period, the Storm Prediction Center received 1,987 reports of severe winds or wind damage, 391 reports of large hail, and 158 tornado reports. It's worth keeping in mind that there weren't 158 tornadoes—many tornado reports can come in for the same storm.

Here's a graphic I created for The Weather Network on Saturday to highlight the persistent risk for severe weather over the past eight days:

Things will start to quiet down heading into next week as the stubborn pattern finally releases its grip and calmer conditions prevail across the eastern two-thirds of the country.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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