This Week's Major Storm Will Plaster The Northern Plains With Up To Two Feet Of Snow

A wet, wind-driven snow will plaster the Plains and Upper Midwest this week as another memorable springtime winter storm rapidly spins-up over the center of the country. The storm—not too dissimilar from the major storm we saw this time last month—will produce everything from a historic -for-April blizzard up north to extreme fire conditions in the Southwest.

The storm will kick into gear on Wednesday as the lift from an upper-level trough crossing the Rockies coincides with the lift from strong winds in the jet stream over the southern Plains. Just like we saw last month, this storm should ramp up in a hurry, undergoing bombogenesis during the day on Wednesday as it crosses from eastern Colorado through central Kansas.

We could see another round of record-low air pressure readings for the month of April if the low's minimum central pressure deepens as much as current forecasts suggest. The current all-time low air pressure readings for the month of April stand between 977-980 mb across the region where the low will grow its strongest, which is right around the predicted minimum pressure for this storm.

Snow

A map of storm total snowfall predicted by local NWS offices, issued Tuesday evening.

This will be a significant and disruptive snowstorm for a large swath of land between Colorado and Ontario. Precipitation will fall in the form of snow across most of the northern expanse of the storm, likely producing more than a foot of snow from central Nebraska through to the western shores of Lake Superior. Communities looking at 12"+ of snow include Rapid City, Pierre, St. Cloud, and Duluth.

Timing: Snow is already falling across parts of the central Rockies tonight. Wintry precip will quickly pick up in coverage and intensity on Wednesday morning as the storm develops and strengthens. A blizzard warning is in effect for the Denver metro area from noon Wednesday until noon Thursday. The heavy snow will overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday night and continue through Friday morning, gradually ending from west to east.

Amounts: A sharp temperature gradient along the track of the storm, both at the surface and aloft, will mean there's a sharp cutoff between significant snowfall totals and not much of anything at all. This is a particularly unnerving scenario because Sioux Falls, Minneapolis, and St. Paul are all straddling that line between a nuisance snowfall and a crippling blizzard. Any southward jog in the track of the storm will force the heavy, sustained snowfall farther to the south and into the heart of these cities.

Some communities will see monthly snowfall records from this system. The most snow ever recorded during the month of April in Pierre, South Dakota, was 13.4" during the April of 1986. This storm could top that. The most snow recorded for the month of April in Duluth, Minnesota, was 12.7" set back in...well, last year. The latest NWS forecast shows this storm easily topping that with close to a foot-and-a-half of snow.

Flooding

The big story with last month's storm wound up being the immense flooding that engulfed entire towns in the days and weeks after the storm. Major flooding is likely after this storm, as well, though probably not on the scale we saw last time around.

The snow that falls this week will be heavy and wet. The latest precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center shows 3-4" of liquid-equivalent precipitation falling across the hardest-hit flood areas through the end of the week.

River flooding forecast from the NWS through the next week. (NWS)

Once the snow starts to melt, many rivers will again begin to overflow their banks and lead to major flooding in the surrounding areas. Several rivers in the region are already at moderate or major flood stage.

The National Weather Service expects most gauges along the Red River in North Dakota, James River and Big Sioux River in South Dakota, the Mississippi River from Minnesota on down, and many other smaller waterways in the region to experience moderate or major flooding in the next week because of the impending surge of rain and snow.

The situation shouldn't be quite as severe as we saw last month—only minor and moderate flooding is in the forecast in Nebraska—as the bulk of the precipitation will be farther north than it was in March and the ground isn't frozen anymore. The frozen, impermeable ground, along with forced the vast majority of the water to run off into waterways, exacerbating the flooding.

Severe Weather

Not only will the impending satellite images tomorrow grab the attention of weather nerds, but it's likely that a temperature map will also look pretty impressive during the day's peak heating. Only a short drive will separate seeing your breath from sweating to death. (Okay, well maybe not sweating that much, but "kinda sweating" doesn't rhyme.)

As you'd expect to see with any strong storm system and that kind of temperature gradient, there's a chance for severe thunderstorms along the storm's track on Wednesday. The dynamics aren't the greatest due to the relative lack of moisture accompanying the warmth, but conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms with the risk of large hail and some damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is possible in a situation like this, the best chance for which would be right around the warm front.

The chance for severe weather will shift to the other side of the Mississippi River on Thursday afternoon, where severe thunderstorms that develop along the advancing cold front could bring damaging wind gusts to parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana.

High Winds

A strong storm wrapping up on flat land is a recipe for high winds. (I think I typed that exact sentence with the last one, come to think of it.) High wind warnings and wind advisories are up for much of the Southwest and southern Plains in anticipation for wind gusts of 60-70 MPH when the storm cranks up during the day on Wednesday. The combination of high winds, dry air, and warm temperatures will lead to a high fire risk across parts of New Mexico and far western Texas during the day on Wednesday.

[Top Image: Tropical Tidbits]

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A Disruptive Weekend Storm Will Blanket Much of the Northeast With Over a Foot of Snow

The early flakes of a widespread and disruptive winter storm are already flying across parts of the Plains and the Midwest as a low-pressure system gets its act together and heads east. This weekend's winter storm will produce a large swath of snowfall in excess of one foot from the Ohio Valley to New England. Isolated areas just south of the rain/snow cutoff could see a damaging ice storm.

Snow, ice, and a chilly rain will continue to develop through early Saturday morning as a low-pressure system gathers organization and strength in the Midwest. Heavy precipitation will spread across the Midwest and Ohio Valley through daybreak on Saturday. The heaviest snow should reach Ohio and Pennsylvania by Saturday evening, spreading through the rest of the Northeast overnight Saturday and into Sunday.

This will be a disruptive snowstorm for just about the entire Northeast save for the immediate coastline. The National Weather Service expects a foot or more of snow to fall from northeastern Ohio through the Canadian Maritimes. The heaviest snow will fall from central Pennsylvania through Maine, where snowfall totals of 18-24" are likely, with higher totals in higher elevations. Exact snowfall totals really stop mattering once you get this high up the yardstick, but in an instance like this, more snow will lead to a thicker slab of glacial ice encrusting the Northeast once temperatures plummet behind the storm.

If you're wondering what's up with that weird bullseye of snow over the Chicago area, the NWS is predicting double-digit snowfall totals in northeastern Illinois thanks to an expected lake effect snow event on Lake Michigan this weekend. Models continue to suggest that one or more bands of north-south oriented lake effect snow will develop on Lake Michigan and blanket its southern shores with extra snow on top of what falls during the big storm. The main shield of snow with the storm is expected to continue through Saturday afternoon. There should be a brief lull before the lake effect snow picks up on Saturday night and continues through the day on Sunday.

Back east, there will be a sharp cutoff between the rain and the snow. That's tricky business when the event will take place so close to so many major metropolitan areas. The entire I-95 corridor between Philly and Boston is close enough that it would only take a southward nudge of a few dozen miles in the storm's track to bring heavier snows into the major metro areas. Forecasters don't believe that's the most likely scenario at this point, but it's always worth keeping in mind that the cutoff of heavy snow isn't that far away.

Source: NWS EDD

The transition zone just to the south of the snow will feature sleet and freezing rain for a period during the storm. The latest forecasts from local NWS offices show the possibility for a crust of ice from Virginia through Maine, with the most significant icing possible in western Maryland and southern New England. Those spots could see up to half an inch of ice accretion from freezing rain according to the latest forecasts, which would cause widespread tree damage and power outages. We had 0.30" of ice from freezing rain here in my part of North Carolina last weekend and some people in my town were without power for three days. Snow is bad, but ice is worse.

Hundreds (if not thousands) of flights will be delayed or cancelled due to the combination of wintry precip, heavy rain, low visibility, and trickle-down effects from connecting airports. Rail service will likely be delayed or cancelled due to snow and ice. Travel by car will be nearly impossible in areas that see more than a foot of snow. I wouldn't be terribly surprise if we wind up with news of people getting stuck on the side of the highway when the heaviest snow starts cranking.

The snow that falls won't go anywhere anytime soon. Temperatures are going to crash through the floor as bitterly cold air floods in behind this storm system. The freezing line will make it as far south as Florida on Sunday and Monday nights as the cold snap rotates through the eastern half of the country. Many communities in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast will see temperatures in the single digits and below zero for a couple of mornings. Monday will be the coldest day; highs on Monday will struggle to climb above zero in western New York.

Temperatures this cold will freeze solid any snow, sleet, and ice through the middle of next week. It will be extremely difficult to remove lingering snow from solid surfaces once it gets this cold. We could also see a flash freeze on Sunday as the bitterly cold air washes over wet roads where most of the precipitation fell as rain, so keep the potential for unexpected black ice in mind if you're out and about on Sunday.

We're heading into an active pattern for the final half of January. This is just the first round. It's too early to say what's to come, but it's certainly going to stay cold for most of us east of the Rockies.

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