The 11:00 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows Dorian making landfall on Florida's east coast as a major hurricane on Sunday or Monday. The cone of uncertainty stretches from the Everglades to the central Georgia coast, though, so don't get too hung up on exact landfall locations this far in advance. Everyone in Florida and along the southeastern and Gulf coasts should carefully follow the storm's progress.
Hurricane Dorian ramped up in a hurry on Wednesday. The storm was a disheveled mess on Tuesday, struggling to maintain itself in the eastern Caribbean Sea and constantly reforming its center of circulation to the northeast. At the time, it wasn't entirely clear if the storm would survive its encounter with the Greater Antilles, given its disorganized state and the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico.
Those northeasterly jogs kept the bulk of the storm east of Puerto Rico, bringing hurricane conditions to the U.S. Virgin Islands and keeping the center of circulation mostly over water. This allowed Dorian to organize its structure and strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Tidbits |
Gibson Ridge |
The NHC issues official forecasts every six hours—at 11:00 and 5:00 AM/PM—with intermediate strength and position updates every three hours in between. If you live in the southeastern United States, even if you're dozens of miles inland, make sure you have enough food, water, and batteries to get through several days without power. Make plans to go somewhere if you have to evacuate from storm surge or inland flooding due to heavy rain.
I'll have a longer and more detailed post here at DAMWeather during the day on Thursday.
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