Will North Carolina break its three-year snowless streak tonight?

A disturbance crossing the Appalachians on Monday night could bring parts of North Carolina their first measurable snowfall in nearly three years. There's a lot riding on the word "could," though, and it's just as likely that little to no snow falls during this brief window of opportunity.

There could be enough lift in the atmosphere to support the development of a batch of light snow across central North Carolina between about 9:00 p.m. Monday and 3:00 a.m. Tuesday.

Monday afternoon's forecast from the National Weather Service called for less than an inch of snow across south-central portions of the state, including Charlotte and Asheboro. 

One potential hiccup, as always, is the risk for dry air. It's going to be quite cold tonight. Temperatures were already in the mid-30s before sunset, and we're likely going to dip into the middle to lower 20s through the overnight hours.

Very cold and dry air is no good if you're hoping for snow, especially when you're expecting light snow rather than a solid thumping. It's very likely that we'll see snow on radar, but it'll be virga—evaporating long before it ever reaches the ground.

Even so, just the potential for a scattered dusting of snow is big news around these parts.

It's been a warm couple of winters across North Carolina. As of Sunday, December 1, it's been 1,037 days since January 29, 2022—the last time the airports in Greensboro, Raleigh, and Charlotte recorded more than a trace of snow.

Measurable snow counts as 0.1 inches or greater. A trace of snow occurs when snowflakes melt when they hit the ground, leaving behind no accumulation. 

This is the longest snowless streak on record in Charlotte (records back to 1939), the second-longest in Greensboro (since 1928), and the third-longest streak without measurable snow in Raleigh (since 1944). 

We'll see if anything happens tonight. If not, those snowless streaks will keep on rolling for a while longer still.

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