Hurricane Lane Poses the Greatest Storm Threat to Hawaii in a Generation

Hurricane Lane is on course to pose the greatest tropical threat to Hawaii since Hurricane Iniki made landfall on Kauai nearly 26 years ago. While the powerful category four storm is not currently forecast to make a direct landfall on any of the main islands, the hurricane's wide-reaching effects will still touch all seven populated islands later this week.

The storm reached its peak strength on Monday night, achieving category five intensity with 160 MPH winds, a rare feat for storms in this part of the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane Lane has since weakened a bit and it will continue to lose strength over the next couple of days. However, "weakening" is a relative term, and Lane will still be a strong hurricane when it comes perilously close the state on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Dangerous Even Without Landfall

The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu shows that Lane is a high-end category four hurricane with maximum winds of 150 MPH. The storm has started to gain latitude, moving on a west-northwesterly course toward Hawaii. The current forecast shows Lane scraping all seven populated islands as a hurricane between Thursday and Saturday before it makes its way west toward open sea.

Hurricane Lane will be dangerous even if its eye never makes landfall. The path of the storm on the forecast map above only applies to the eye of the hurricane. The dangerous effects of the storm—strong winds, heavy rain, storm surge, rough surf, and tornadoes—will extend hundreds of miles away from the eye.

Even on an offshore track, it's increasingly likely that the entire state of Hawaii will experience a period of hazardous weather conditions.

Tropical storm force winds currently extend 140 miles from the center of the storm. It wouldn't take much of an eastward wobble in the storm's track to bring hurricane force winds onshore. In fact, the latest CPHC forecast shows hurricane force winds reaching the heavily-populated southern shore of Oahu, home to Honolulu.

A storm surge greater than three feet is possible on south- and west-facing shores, especially on the Big Island and Oahu. This could cause major coastal flooding in and around Honolulu and Pearl Harbor. Flash flooding will be a major concern with this hurricane. The entire island chain could see more than 10 inches of rain with more than a foot likely around higher terrain where orographic lift enhances rainfall rates. The heavy rain will also trigger mudslides and rockslides in mountainous areas. High surf and rip currents will pose a significant danger to swimmers, boaters, and communities along the immediate coast.

Lane Isn't Iselle

One of the issues we run into when we talk about storms threatening the contiguous United States is that a decent portion of coastal residents just don't want to take tropical threats seriously. This is a big problem in a state like Florida, where, despite the extended hurricane drought between 2007 and 2017, residents feel like they have the experience and moxie ride out any storm below a certain category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hopefully this issue of comparative complacency won't be too much of a factor in Hawaii. The island chain hasn't been directly affected by as many hurricanes as you'd think given its location.

Surprising as it is, Hawaii really hasn't had to deal with many hurricanes in its modern history. The state has had many glancing blows with tropical cyclones in recent decades, but few full-fledged hurricanes have come as close as the forecast track for Hurricane Lane. The last major hurricane to affect the state was Hurricane Iniki in September 1992. The category four hurricane , which made landfall with little advanced warning, left behind significant damage on Kauai.

The closest analogy in recent times was Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall as a tropical storm on the eastern shore of the Big Island in August 2014. The storm's path took the center of circulation directly over the island's 13,000-foot volcanoes, shredding the system apart before it could bring serious effects to any other islands.

Unfortunately, Lane is not similar to Iselle. This hurricane will be considerably stronger than Iselle at its closest approach and it's approaching the islands on a curving path from the south, which will spread its effects over all of the islands in the coming days.

This looks like it will be a storm unlike anything Hawaii has faced in decades.

The Preparation Problem

Hawaii is cemented in the American worldview as the mainland's vacation destination. Everyone dreams of going to Hawaii to spent a week or two without a care in the world. The state is home to more than a million people, however, and they really don't have many options to escape the worst of a hurricane.

Hawaii's infrastructure outside of major cities is not as well-built as many hurricane-prone areas of the contiguous United States. Homes, roads, and electrical grids may not fare as well against a hurricane's wind and rain as we would see on the mainland.

Tourists can also pose a unique safety issue during a hurricane. Most tourists will leave a vacation destination ahead of a storm, but a lot of folks—especially in an expensive and hard-to-leave vacation spot like Hawaii—decide to ride it out and hope for the best.

A hurricane approaching an island chain is different from a hurricane approaching a continent. You can't really evacuate from the storm unless you catch one of the last flights out before airlines start cancelling departures. When you're on an island, you can only evacuate to relatively safer spots—sturdy buildings that are away from flooding and mudslide dangers.

For many tourists, this means staying in the hotel for several rainy, possibly-powerless days at a time. No beach. No restaurants. No Instagram selfies on cliffs. Just staying put and staying occupied. Some people won't want to do that, and every tourist who tries to go all Reed Timmer and venture into the storm makes it that much harder for rescue and aid to reach the endangered residents who—let's not put it gently—actually belong there.

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Hurricane Lane May Pose a Threat to the Hawaiian Islands Later This Week

Hurricane Lane is a powerful category four storm this afternoon as it slowly makes its way in the direction of Hawaii. The storm is forecast to take a path that brings it uncomfortably close to the Hawaiian Islands later this week, though exactly how close—and its impacts—are still to be determined given the complicated setup driving the hurricane's future path.

Source: NOAA/NASA

Several aircraft investigated Hurricane Lane this afternoon and found that the storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb. This makes Lane a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the second such storm in this part of the world in the past week. Hurricane Hector passed through the same area last week as a stronger storm. 

The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center—the NHC's sister agency in Honolulu—shows Lane turning toward the northwest around the middle of the week. While the storm will start to lose strength as it encounters wind shear closer to the islands, it will still be a strong storm as it comes dangerously close to the 50th state.

All seven populated islands are within the cone of uncertainty, which is the historical margin of error in previous hurricane track forecasts. The cone of uncertainty only applies to the eye of the storm, however, and Hurricane Lane's effects will extend hundreds of miles from the center of the storm. Even if the storm's eye misses Hawaii to the south, significant impacts can't be ruled out, especially on the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai.

On the storm's current path and timing, watches and warnings will likely be required for the Big Island within the next day. The latest CPHC forecast says that Wednesday morning is the earliest reasonable arrival time for tropical storm force winds if they affect the Big Island, with the successive islands feeling the first effects over the following day.

Lane is in an environment that makes it hard for forecasters and weather models to agree on what will happen. The storm's future path will be determined by the strength of two ridges of high pressure—one to the southeast of the hurricane and one to the east. The interplay between the two ridges will dictate how soon and how sharply Lane curves north/northwest as it approaches the islands.

Just like their counterparts at the National Hurricane center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu will issue updates on Hurricane Lane every six hours—at 11 and 5 AM/PM—with intermediate updates every three hours in between once watches and warnings are in effect. Hawaii is six hours behind Eastern Daylight Time.

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Major Hurricane Hector Will Likely Pass South of Hawaii This Week

Hurricane Hector is a powerful category four storm with sustained winds of 140 MPH as it entered the central Pacific basin on Sunday night. The hurricane will likely remain south of Hawaii as it makes its closest approach this weekend, but a small northward change in its track could bring dangerous conditions close to the islands.

Hector is downright impressive on satellite imagery today. Its appearance reflects its strength. The storm has a solid eye, thick core, and good outflow. It's unsettling to see a storm this strong in any ocean basin let alone moving in the general direction of heavily-populated islands.

The hurricane will make its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Most strong storms in the past that have moved through Hurricane Hector's current location stayed south of the islands and it looks as though this one will do the same. Assuming Hector stays south as forecast, the greatest threat to the islands will be rough surf and rip currents.

The hurricane's track depends on the strength of a ridge of high pressure to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. The outer edge of a high acts like a guardrail for hurricanes, steering them along the outer periphery of the ridge. A stronger ridge will steer Hurricane Hector farther south of Hawaii, while a weaker ridge will allow the storm to track farther north and closer to the 50th state. If the ridge turns out to be weaker than forecast and Hector jogs north, dangerous conditions can't be ruled out on the Big Island on Wednesday.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center—the NHC's counterpart in Honolulu—expects that the hurricane is at or very near the strongest it'll get this week. Dry air from the north is starting to wrap around the hurricane and will soon start chipping away at its organization, forcing the storm to slowly weaken as it makes its closest approach to Hawaii.

The close approach of a hurricane is the last thing Hawaii needs at the moment. The May 3 eruption of Kilauea on the southeast coast of the Big Island destroyed entire neighborhoods and the lava flow is still going three months later. A large wildfire also broke out on the island of Oahu this weekend, consuming at least 5,000 acres of land and several homes.

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