Hurricane Erin remains a large storm and it continues expanding

Tropical storm warnings are in place for many coastal communities across North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as Hurricane Erin brushes past the region.

While the core of the storm will remain far offshore, Hurricane Erin is a very large system and it continues to grow larger as it begins its ever-hastening recurve out to sea.

Forecasters at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday found that Erin's tropical storm force winds extended 265 miles from the center of the storm, while hurricane force winds extended 90 miles from the center of the storm. 

That's unusually large by Atlantic standards—and it'll continue to grow its footprint over the next couple of days.

Erin's maximum sustained winds of 110 mph almost seem disconnected from its deep minimum central pressure of 941 mb. Hurricanes can spend their energy (so to speak) on intensity and size, with one usually coming at the expense of the other. This storm's very deep minimum pressure is translating to size rather than packing all that energy into a tight, powerful core. 

A ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to guide Erin to the north, and then northeast, over the next couple of days, allowing the storm to recurve safely out to sea.

Despite its offshore track, the storm's sheer size may allow tropical storm force winds to buffet portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines. These areas could see power outages, tree damage, as well as coastal flooding and beach erosion from storm surge and high surf.

Rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Watches issued for N.C. as powerful Hurricane Erin grows in size

Hurricane Erin remained a powerful Category 4 storm on Monday as the system puttered along east of The Bahamas. 

Tropical storm watches and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks as forecasters expect the storm to grow in size as it recurves through the middle of the week.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Erin steadily moving northwest through the beginning of the week before turning north by midweek as it starts to swing around a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.

Even though the storm's center should remain far offshore, the storm's sheer size could bring dangerous conditions ashore for North Carolina's Outer Banks late Wednesday through the day Thursday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C., while a storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. 

The system has steadily grown in size since it reached peak strength as a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. (I wrote about some of the astounding stats behind Erin's rise to scale-topping intensity over at The Weather Network, check it out!) 

Hurricane Erin will continue to expand its footprint over the next couple of days, growing into an exceptionally large storm by the beginning of the week. This growth could bring tropical storm force winds ashore across the Outer Banks, and the storm's immensity will help generate a potentially dangerous storm surge along the coast.

The NHC's forecast at 5:00 p.m. Monday called for storm surge up to 4 feet above ground level across much of the Outer Banks, with 1 to 3 feet of inundation as far south as Myrtle Beach, S.C., and as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula. 

Storm surge flooding is seawater pushed inland by the force of persistent winds. Storm surge is more likely with large storms like Hurricane Erin. Any westward deviation in the track will make coastal flooding more likely.

Rip currents and high waves are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Hurricane Erin's dangerous waves, rip currents likely to hit U.S. East Coast

Erin strengthened into a hurricane on Friday morning as the storm gradually makes its way west across the open Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters expect the storm to continue growing into a powerful Category 4 storm this weekend as it skirts north of the Lesser Antilles and starts a delicate recurve.

While the storm is unlikely to make a direct hit on the United States, dangerous waves and rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this weekend and into early next week. Rip currents are a deadly hazard to beachgoers, claiming many lives every year even under clear and sunny skies.

A reconnaissance flight through Erin this morning found that the storm strengthened into the season's first hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It's a tiny storm—hurricane force winds only extend about 25 miles from the center—but it'll gradually grow in the days ahead.

Conditions are favorable for Erin to intensify into a major hurricane, and possibly into a powerful Category 4 storm, by this weekend. While the core of the storm should miss the Leeward Islands, Erin's outer bands could still bring tropical storm conditions to islands like Barbuda and St. Martin on Saturday.

We'll likely see Erin thread the needle between Bermuda and the Carolinas next week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic weakens, providing a pathway for the storm to turn northward and begin to recurve. It's still too early to tell if the system will have any impacts on Atlantic Canada.

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Dangerous waves and rip currents will be the greatest hazards for the East Coast starting this weekend and stretching well into next week.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Tropical Storm Erin set to become Atlantic's first hurricane of 2025

Tropical Storm Erin formed off the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday. The storm is set to become the first hurricane—and possibly the first major hurricane—of the 2025 Atlantic season later this week.

A vigorous tropical wave rolling off the coast of Africa got its act together in a hurry as it emerged over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean, quickly organizing into the season's fifth named storm. 

Like all storms that originate in the Cabo Verde region, this is going to be an 8-10+ day marathon watching this storm march west across the Atlantic basin. 

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady intensification in the days to come.

The National Hurricane Center expects Erin to gradually strengthen over the next five days, with the agency's forecast explicitly calling for a major hurricane in the central Atlantic by Wednesday.

These long-duration storms cause quite the anxiety spike among coastal residents who are constantly refreshing weather pages in hopes of learning more about the system's next move.

Unfortunately, it's far too soon to say exactly where the storm will track beyond next weekend. We can look at signals in the models to get an idea of where it may track beyond the end of the NHC's five-day forecast. 

Most tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic are steered along by large ridges of high pressure parked over the center of the ocean. The strength and placement of these highs dictate how far west they travel before they begin to recurve. (Some storms don't recurve at all.)

A model image showing ridges and troughs in the upper atmosphere on Friday evening. SOURCE: Tropical Tidbits

A stronger high-pressure system will allow the system to move farther west, posing a greater threat to the U.S. and Atlantic Canada. A weaker high provides more opportunities for the storm to recurve north and out to sea. 

Right now, signals in the models show decent odds that a weaker high will probably allow Erin to recurve and track near Bermuda before turning out to sea. However, there's plenty of time for things to change. Very small changes in the near-term can have big long-term effects in a storm's track.

We're coming up on the peak of hurricane season. Tropical Storm Erin's impending marathon is a good reminder that folks who live in coastal states and provinces should be ready for storms well before a threat is on the horizon.  

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Tropical Storm Dexter limps out to sea as more systems try to form

Folks along or near the coast should start paying attention to the tropics as forecasters monitor several areas for potential development over the next week.

Tropical Storm Dexter formed between North Carolina and Bermuda on Sunday night. This system is what meteorologists sometimes nickname a "fish storm" because it'll stay out to sea and away from land. Dexter remains weak and it'll likely lose its tropical characteristics in the next day or so as it moves northeast through the open Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted two additional areas for potential development over the next five to seven days—one off the southeastern U.S., and another far out in the central Atlantic. 

A low-pressure system is likely to form offshore from the southeastern states later this week. Conditions may be favorable for this system to develop tropical characteristics, and its proximity to the coast will require special attention for any potential impacts from rain, wind, storm surge, or rip currents.

Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic could slowly develop as it heads toward the center of the basin through next weekend. Forecasters give this feature a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression.

While it's far too early to talk about potential intensity, we'll have to watch the strength of high pressure over the northern Atlantic for signs about its future track. A weaker high is more favorable for a recurve out to sea, while a stronger high could allow the system to push west toward land.

Season is progressing a little ahead of average pace

Despite narratives like "sluggish start" and "quiet so far," this year's Atlantic hurricane season is actually tracking a step ahead of normal compared to the progress of an average season in the basin.

So far this year, we've seen Andrea (June 24), Barry (June 28), Chantal (July 4), and Dexter (August 3). We're about a week and a half ahead of the pace of an average Atlantic hurricane season, and we'll jump even farther ahead if one or both of those disturbances organizes into a tropical storm. 

All that is to say—don't fall into a false sense of security because it feels quieter than the busy seasons we've seen in the past few years. It only takes one storm making landfall to turn even the slowest season into a major ordeal.

What's in a name?

This is the first time we've used Dexter as a storm name in the Atlantic basin. The World Meteorological Organization picked Dexter as the replacement for Dorian after that name was retired following the 2019 hurricane season.

If you're curious (of course you are!), I have a whole page devoted to hurricane name history and statistics at my other website. 

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Tampa, Florida, hits 100°F for the first time in 135 years of records

Folks in Tampa, Florida, endured the city's hottest day in weather history on Sunday when the temperature at Tampa International Airport reached 100°F at 3:30 p.m. local time. 

The feat arrived as a long-duration heat event roasted much of the eastern United States—with a strong focus on the southeast. Charlotte, North Carolina, for instance, hit 101°F on Saturday, 102°F on Sunday, and they were well on their way to the triple-digits as of this post on Monday afternoon. 

A multi-day heat event isn't unusual for this part of the country during the heart of summer. But it unusual for folks on the Florida peninsula—especially right on the water—to reach the century mark. 

Tampa's previous all-time record high temperature was 99°F set on both June 26, 2020, and June 5, 1985. Weather records in the city date back to April 1, 1890, threaded across various locations. The main observation station has been at the Tampa International Airport since February 1, 1939, and the station currently sits about 2,800 feet from the waters of Tampa Bay. 

One of the big questions I've seen in the wake of this 135-year-old weather record is "why is the all-time high temperature so low?"

After all, plenty of cities to the north hit 100 degrees at least once or twice per summer. Washington's all-time high temperature is 105°F. Boston hit 103°F back in July 2011. 

It's (almost) all in the humidity. Exceptionally muggy air bathes Florida for most of the year. Air rich with water vapor resists heating up just as it resists cooling down at night. This mugginess moderates how high temperatures can rise on a steamy Florida afternoon, limiting how high the mercury can rise even during a formidable heat wave.

Another major factor at play on Sunday was the wind direction. Tampa Bay is west of the airport's weather station. Winds on Sunday afternoon were blowing out of the north and northeast—so instead of a cooling sea breeze, they were feeling light winds travelling over land instead of the cooler waters nearby. 

Graphic courtesy of Climate Central

It's worth pointing out that the low temperature only dipped to about 84°F on Sunday night and Monday morning. As much as humidity limits how hot an afternoon can grow, it also limits how much conditions can cool off at night. (I just recorded a segment for The Weather Network about this!) 

Climate change is making matters worse. Warming temperatures combined with rising humidity have already led to muggier and more uncomfortable nights. The Tampa area has seen nighttime low temperatures rise more than 4 degrees since the 1970s, according to Climate Central.

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It's been a stormy and steamy summer across the U.S. so far in 2025

We're just past the halfway point in meteorological summer—already!—and it's been quite the steamy and stormy season for much of the country.

In fact, it's just been a busy year for active weather in general. 

The year started with a historic snowstorm on the northern Gulf Coast and rolled right into our most tornadic spring since 2011. Severe weather has kept apace heading into this summer, as we've seen multiple flash flood disasters unfold in just the past couple of weeks.

Near-Record Humidity Levels

If you're tired of sweating the moment you walk out the door, don't worry—it's not just you. 

Mugginess is best measured using the dew point, which is the temperature at which the air is fully saturated.

Dew point values below 55°F are generally considered comfortable. You start to notice the humidity once the dew point hits 60°F. It feels sticky when the dew point reaches 65°F, and it's downright tropical when dew point values hit 70°F or higher.

New York's JFK Airport, as well as Greensboro, N.C., have seen a record number of hours with dew points at or above 70°F through July 16. Chicago's year-to-date tropical mugginess ranks second on record there, while this year is in the third spot at Washington, D.C.'s National Airport. 

That's a fair amount of excessive humidity, especially when combined with the heat we've seen this season.

Flash Flooding Abound

An atmosphere rich in moisture is a breeding ground for intense thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rains. 

The above map shows the percent of normal precipitation across the U.S. over the past 30 days. Purple colors indicate above-average precipitation, while oranges represent below-normal precipitation. It's easy to see areas that have been hit extremely hard by heavy rain over the past month. 

Portions of central Texas have seen as much as two feet (feet!) of rain over the past 30 days, which contributed to the devastating flash flooding in Kerr County back over the July 4th weekend. Repeated rounds of storms have also drenched portions of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic states—especially where Tropical Storm Chantal moved through North Carolina and Virginia.

The National Weather Service issued 3,106 flash flood warnings so far in 2025 through 11:20 a.m. on July 16. Many of those flash flood warnings covered areas hit hard by the carousel of tornado outbreaks during the spring months. 

For some context, that's 3,106 flash flood warnings year-to-date. The entire year of 2020 only saw 2,874 flash flood warnings issued across the U.S.

47 of those flash flood warnings were upgraded to flash flood emergencies—much like tornado emergencies, this is enhanced wording deployed when destructive flash flooding is ongoing that poses a significant risk to life and property.

The flash flood emergency for Kerr County, Texas, had particularly chilly warning for folks in the area: "Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring."

The good folks at the Climate Prediction Center don't see too much change over the next two weeks. While folks across Texas may have a chance to dry out, forecasters expect a pattern capable of producing above-average precipitation across the southeastern states and a large swath of the northern U.S.

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Flooding possible as tropical disturbance meanders into the Gulf of Mexico

A tropical disturbance off Florida's Atlantic coast will wander into the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days, bringing widespread heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.

While there's a small chance that the system could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, localized flooding from heavy rainfall is possible regardless of the disturbance's ultimate status. 

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center give it a 30 percent chance of developing into either a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico toward the second half of the week.

It's not the worst looking tropical disturbance I've ever seen, I'll give it that much. There's plenty of thunderstorm activity and it has "that look" about it if you squint a bit. 

But it's a hazard to the northern Gulf Coast regardless of its development. Disturbance, depression, or storm—it's still going to bring plenty of rain to the region this week.

The Weather Prediction Center expects several inches of rain to fall from the Florida Peninsula west toward southern Louisiana. A setup like this can easily produce 5+ inches of rain in spots, especially if training thunderstorms set up shop.

Flash flooding kills more people in the U.S. than any other storm-related threat.

Please make sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Never try to drive across a flooded roadway. It takes a surprisingly small amount of water (a foot or less!) to make a vehicle float, requiring quick escape or emergency rescue.

We've seen three tropical storms across the Atlantic basin so far this year. The next name on the list is Dexter, a brand new entry after Dorian's retirement back in 2019.

Given relatively warm waters and generally favorable atmospheric conditions, last week's updated outlook from Colorado State University continues to call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season ahead. 

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