Hurricane warnings are now in place for parts of the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Helene steadily marches toward the region over the next couple of days. The system could reach major hurricane strength before slamming into the Florida coast on Thursday.
Helene's dangerous weather conditions will extend hundreds of miles inland from the point of landfall, exposing a vast swath of the southeastern U.S. to dangerous winds, flooding rains, and a risk for tornadoes.
Current Status & Predicted Path
The storm rapidly organized into Tropical Storm Helene during the day on Tuesday as it moved over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. Forecasters expect the storm to thread the needle between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba over the next day, coming very close to Cancun on Wednesday.
A sharp upper-level trough over the southern U.S. will pick up the storm and force it to turn on a north-northeasterly track toward Florida's Gulf Coast.
Things will happen quickly once Helene enters the Gulf late Wednesday.
Extremely warm waters and favorable environmental conditions should allow the storm to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Thursday. The latest forecast from the
National Hurricane Center brings Helene into the Florida Panhandle or the state's Big Bend region as a major hurricane on Thursday evening.
This is going to be a large hurricane with a sprawling footprint as it hits the southeastern U.S. Damaging winds, storm surge flooding, freshwater flooding from heavy rain, and a threat for tornadoes will extend hundreds of miles away from the center of the storm.
Flooding Rains
Widespread flooding rains will pose the greatest threat to the most people as Helene pushes inland. A wide swath of 5-10+ inches of rain will follow the storm from Florida into the Carolinas.
This much heavy rain falling in such a short period of time will lead to significant flash flooding across vulnerable areas, and we may see flooding in areas that typically don't experience it during heavy rainfall.
Flash flooding and landslides will be a particular concern across the southern Blue Ridge as orographic lift—winds flowing up the sides of the mountains—will enhance rainfall totals across the western Carolinas and northern Georgia. Some areas may see double-digit rainfall totals by this weekend.
Please remember and spread the word: it's never safe to drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and the road may be washed out beneath the floodwaters. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it downstream.
Damaging Winds & Storm Surge Flooding
While rain will be the biggest threat from this storm, we can't ignore the looming impact of damaging winds as this soon-to-be-hurricane approaches land.
Communities near the point of landfall could see destructive sustained winds in excess of 115 mph, which will cause structural damage in addition to a massive blowdown of trees and power lines. Power outages near the point of landfall could last for weeks.
Helene's winds won't stop at the coast. Sustained winds of 70+ mph will follow the core of the storm as it pushes across the Florida Panhandle and into southern Georgia. Major tree damage and downed power lines are likely throughout cities like Tallahassee, Valdosta, Albany, and possibly even up toward Macon.
Based on the storm's current projected path, wind gusts of 40-60+ mph are possible into northern Georgia, including metro Atlanta, as well as into the western Carolinas, which may include Greenville, Spartanburg, and the Charlotte metro area. This will lead to downed trees and power outages throughout the region.
Helene's intense winds will push a destructive, life-threatening storm surge into the coast. Storm surge flooding could rise 10-15 feet above ground level near the point of landfall if the surge coincides with high tide. We can only hope that the worst surge inundates unpopulated areas of the swampy Florida coast.
The storm's growing size will make a storm surge of 5-8 feet possible across Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. This much storm surge flooding will easily inundate neighborhoods near the coast. Please heed all evacuation orders issued by local officials.
Tornado Risk
Tornadoes are an ever-present hazard when a tropical system rolls ashore. Strong wind shear within the storm can cause spin-up tornadoes to occur within the storm's outer rain bands. These tornadoes can happen very quickly with reduced tornado warning lead times.
Tornadoes are most likely on the eastern side of a landfalling storm, which places the greatest risk for tornadoes across large portions of Florida and Georgia, as well as eastern sections of the Carolinas.
Make sure you've got emergency alerts activated on your phone so you can get warnings the moment they're issued for your location. These free push alerts are a proven lifesaver in the critical moments ahead of a tornado—especially when your reaction time is reduced.
NHC Updates
The
National Hurricane Center releases full forecast packages—including updated cones and wind forecasts every six hours, at 11:00 a.m./p.m. and 5:00 a.m./p.m.
When there are watches and warnings in effect, the agency also releases intermediate updates every three hours in between. These advisories provide status updates on the storm's current location and conditions, as well as any changes to watches and warnings that are in effect.