Hurricane Melissa reaches Category 5 intensity, setting new records

Hurricane Melissa intensified into a scale-topping Category 5 storm just south of Jamaica early Monday morning. Forecasters expect the storm to remain near peak strength as it begins to curve north and makes landfall on the island nation within the next 24-36 hours.

Melissa achieved this rare feat by taking advantage of favorable atmospheric conditions and exceptionally warm water temperatures throughout the northern Caribbean Sea. This is the only storm to track through the Caribbean so far this year.

This is the third Category 5 hurricane this year. Only one other Atlantic season has recorded more than two Category 5 storms—2005, which saw four scale-toppers in Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

This is the seventh Category 5 storm we've seen in the past three years, a historic stretch since records began back in 1850.

This is the thirteenth Category 5 storm in the past decade, also a historic stretch since reliable records began.

Melissa is also on track to become the strongest storm to ever strike Jamaica. The previous recordholder is 1988's Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall near Kingston with 130 mph winds.

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Devastating flooding, wind damage expected as Hurricane Melissa targets Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in about 24 hours as the system churns over the extremely warm waters of the northern Caribbean Sea.

The storm, which is just south of Jamaica, will slowly move over the island nation over the next couple of days. Widespread and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides are likely, along with devastating wind damage and a destructive coastal storm surge.

Widespread Damage Likely

Ask any meteorologist their worst-case scenario for a high-end landfalling hurricane and a situation like Hurricane Melissa will probably rank high up on the list. 

Melissa is about as strong as an Atlantic hurricane can get and it's moving at a snail's pace toward Jamaica, a heavily mountainous island that's home to millions of people.

Whether the storm reaches Jamaica as a Category 4 or a Category 5 on Monday and Tuesday, the effects will be devastating for the region.

A constant surge of tropical moisture streaming across the heavily mountainous island will produce rainfall totals of 20-30 inches, with some communities possibly picking up more than 40 inches of rain through Tuesday night. 

This absolute glut of water will lead to widespread and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides; think about what happened in western North Carolina during Helene last year, and double it several times over. 

Extreme, long-duration winds will destroy many homes and businesses along the path of the eyewall. Utility outages will likely last for months in the hardest-hit areas. Trees will be defoliated and vast swaths of cropland will be destroyed.

The NHC says a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet is possible as Melissa makes landfall, an inundation of seawater that will cause major damage to coastal communities east of where the eye makes landfall.

After crossing Jamaica, the hurricane will pass over eastern Cuba with flash flooding and wind damage. Melissa will begin accelerating to the northeast from there, potentially threatening Bermuda at hurricane strength later this week.

A season of high-end hurricanes

As I wrote last week, this has been a very strange hurricane season. This year's activity has been all-or-nothing, with storms that either struggled mightily or just reached for the stars.

We've had five hurricanes this year:

• Erin: Category 5, 160 mph peak
• Gabrielle: Category 4, 140 mph peak
• Humberto: Category 5, 160 mph peak
• Imelda: Category 2, 100 mph peak
• Melissa, Category 4, 140 mph peak (so far)

Since 1850, only one other Atlantic hurricane season has recorded more than two Category 5 storms. (The other was 2005 with Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.)

Extremely warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions allowed Melissa to undergo a period of explosive intensification between Saturday and Sunday, growing from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours. 

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Tropical Storm Melissa may threaten the Greater Antilles as a hurricane

Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning. A weak pattern around the storm will force it to meander toward Haiti and Jamaica over the next few days, where it could pose a major threat for flash flooding and landslides.

Melissa developed from a vigorous tropical wave that took its time traversing the Atlantic Ocean over the past week or so.

It's a disheveled storm this afternoon, with the low-level center of circulation displaced from its thunderstorm activity to the east. This disorganization will prevent it from strengthening much in the short term.

While the storm is facing some disruptive wind shear right now, steering currents around the storm will collapse later this week. As a result, Melissa will slow to a crawl as it approaches the Greater Antilles. This slow and somewhat erratic movement means that the storm's future track is more uncertain than usual. 

A hurricane watch is in effect for Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula (full disclosure: I had to google the name for that), while a tropical storm watch is in effect for all of Jamaica. 

Extensive flash flooding and landslides are possible on top of the gusty winds as the storm slowly moves through the region. 

Water temperatures across the Caribbean are very warm for mid-October. Melissa is the region's first tropical system this year, shutting out the possibility of no tropical systems in the Caribbean for the first time since 1997.

The strong winds of tropical storms and hurricanes churn up the ocean surface and induce upwelling of cold waters. Caribbean waters haven't really had the opportunity to overturn, so to speak, given the lack of tropical systems so far this year.

It's worth noting that a slow-moving storm getting its act together over steamy ocean waters can lead to more strengthening than anticipated.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Checking in on the strange 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

We're more than halfway done with this year's Atlantic hurricane season and...well, it's been a weird one so far.

The ocean basin has produced 11 named storms through Oct. 12. This year's storms have pretty neatly fallen into two groups so far—they've either struggled mightily, or absolutely reached for the stars. 

Out of those 11 named storms, four grew into hurricanes. Erin and Humberto reached category five intensity, Gabrielle was a solid category four, and Imelda reached category two strength.

A favorable atmospheric setup has kept all but one of those storms away from the continental United States. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina with 60 mph winds during the overnight hours on Sunday, July 6. Otherwise, nine out of the ten remaining storms recurved out into the open Atlantic.

We haven't even seen any tropical systems in the Caribbean by this point in the season, a testament to the strength and placement of ridges of high pressure over the central Atlantic. If these ridges were stronger or farther west, the waves that grew into storms like Erin and Humberto may have travelled farther south into the Caribbean instead.

How does this season stack up compared to normal?

An average Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. We're pretty much on track to see a near-normal season, assuming we see another storm or two over the next couple of weeks. 

Even this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is near normal. ACE is a metric meteorologists use to gauge the true intensity of a hurricane season, accounting for the strength and longevity of a season's storms. A stronger storm that lasts longer will produce higher ACE values than a weak, short-lived system.

So far this season, we've seen an ACE value of 96.2, which was 92.4% of normal for Oct. 11. Erin, Humberto, and Gabrielle account for more than 80% of that energy, which really throws it back to how every storm this season has either struggled or excelled.

The season isn't over yet. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and we've seen plenty of high-end storms form through the end of October and into November. We'll have to start looking closer to home—in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—for storm formation as we enter these final weeks of the season. 

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Coastal flooding likely as blustery storm meanders off the East Coast

A developing storm is set to cause major problems for coastal communities up and down the eastern seaboard beginning this weekend, threatening high winds and flooding throughout the region.

Some meteorologists are calling this the most impactful storm to hit parts of the region in over a decade, with near-record coastal flooding possible in spots. 

An upper-level trough over the southeast is spinning up a low-pressure system off the coast of Florida to end the week. We'll see this system move up the coast toward North Carolina with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds heading into the weekend. 

This storm isn't moving anywhere in a hurry. A ridge of high pressure over New England and Eastern Canada will force the system to meander just off the coast.

The tight pressure gradient between the low and that high pressure to the north will fuel ripping winds directed at the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, which could easily exceed 60 mph at times.

Blustery conditions could lead to power outages from the Delmarva north through Long Island. Persistent winds pushing ashore will also lead to a risk for widespread coastal flooding from Jacksonville, Florida, all the way up north of Boston. 

Many of the affected areas could essentially see a one- to two-foot storm surge later this weekend and into the day Monday. Significant beach erosion and closed roads are also possible.

Despite the hazards, it's worth noting that this is not a tropical system—a storm doesn't need a name to cause major disruptions.

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Drought continues to spread across the United States

It's not just your imagination—it's been an unusually dry couple of months across the United States.

The latest update of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) on Oct. 7 showed 73 percent of the country mired in abnormally dry or full-on drought conditions. This includes much of the Intermountain West, as well as vast swaths of the southeast, Midwest, and New England. 

Compare that map to the one from June 3:

Big difference!

The most significant degradation has occurred along and east of the Mississippi River. Persistent ridges of high pressure suppressed thunderstorm activity and shunted weather systems around the region. A near-complete lack of landfalling tropical systems has also contributed to the rainfall deficit, especially across the southeast.

Only a few areas have seen drought improve between the beginning of June and the start of October, including the northern half of the Plains and portions of Texas and the desert southwest.

Forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center don't see much improvement on the way over the next couple of weeks. Only a few areas, such as southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest, have better-than-even odds of above-normal precipitation heading into the back half of autumn.

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North Dakota tornado upgraded to EF-5, the first in 12 years

The first confirmed EF-5 tornado in 12 years occurred in North Dakota back in June, according to an official report from the National Weather Service issued on Monday.

Estimated winds greater than 210 mph occurred within the mile-wide tornado as it churned near Enderlin, North Dakota, late in the night on June 20, 2025. Enderlin is about 40 miles southwest of Fargo.

Officials teamed up with wind damage experts across the U.S. and Canada to study the damage and make the final determination.

"The tornado derailed 33 train cars including 19 fully-loaded grain hopper cars and 14 empty tanker cars, mainly tipped from the track," the report stated.

A photo of the EF-5 damage near Enderlin, North Dakota. Photo courtesy NWS/Aaron Rigsby

"It was in this train derailment location that EF-5 damage intensity was noted with greater than 210 mph winds listed officially for this tornado."

EF-5 tornadoes are exceptionally rare—this is only the 60th confirmed scale-topping twister in the U.S. since 1950, and the first since the devastating storm that hit Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. 

It's difficult for officials to find EF-5 damage because few structures can withstand winds close to 200 mph. Experts often have to rely on context clues to arrive at an EF-5 rating, such as studying foundation hardware or the lofting of exceptionally heavy items, as they did this time around in North Dakota.

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Hurricane Gabrielle's rapid intensification fits right in with this decade's major hurricanes

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified into a category four storm Monday as it passed east of Bermuda.

The storm is now the twentieth (!) major hurricane to undergo at least one period of rapid intensification since the turn of the decade. 

Gabrielle's maximum sustained winds jumped from 75 mph (65 knots) to 140 mph (120 knots) in a 24-hour period between Sunday evening and Monday evening.

This nearly doubles the criteria needed to qualify for rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm's winds increase at least 30 knots within 24 hours. 

This Atlantic season is now two-for-two on hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms. Hurricane Erin grew into a scale-topping Category 5 back in August.

Favorable conditions allowed Gabrielle to rapidly gather strength through the day Monday, including unusually warm waters east of Bermuda and upper-level winds helping to vent air away from the core of the growing hurricane.

While the storm is moving east away from the United States and Canada, it may pose a threat to land within the next couple of days.

Officials issued a hurricane watch for the Azores as Gabrielle approaches the region later this week. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to cross the archipelago at hurricane strength late on Thursday. Damaging winds, storm surge flooding, large swells, and flooding rains are possible as Gabrielle hits the region.

Direct hurricane strikes are relatively rare in the Azores. Hurricane Lorenzo brushed the western islands in 2019. Hurricane Alex moved over the islands as an exceptionally rare January hurricane in 2016. Two hurricanes both named Gordon (really!) struck the region in 2012 and 2006. 

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Experts warn that Atlantic hurricane season could rev up after a quiet stretch

Experts with Colorado State University are explicitly warning folks not to write off this year's Atlantic hurricane season yet. Even though the ocean basin has been completely calm through the historic peak of the season, signs point toward renewed activity in the weeks ahead.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season began with forecasters broadly expecting above-normal activity across the basin. Warm sea surface temperatures and other favorable conditions seemed to suggest bustling activity.

We had a slow start to the year, then a monster in Category 5 Hurricane Erin, and then the basin fell silent again. What gives?

The team at CSU recently released a detailed analysis of the first half of this year's hurricane season. Factors that have kept the basin exceptionally quiet include dry air, a stable atmosphere, vertical wind shear, and suppressed waves rolling off the western coast of Africa.

They added: "We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September." 

We're only halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season. The historic climax in activity usually occurs around September 12, which is the point we've seen—on average—about half the season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). 

Quiet seasons are a mixed bag. On one hand, it's great that we haven't seen any disruptive or destructive storms this far. On the other hand, though, an extended stretch without any tropical activity may lull coastal residents into a false sense of security.

Some of recent history's most impactful storms formed and hit land through the end of September and into October—Helene and Milton among them just last year. 

Don't let your guard down yet. We've still got a long way to go.

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Watch the Atlantic Ocean cool down in Hurricane Erin's wake

Hurricane Erin is long gone—but its memory lives on in the Atlantic. The storm left noticeably cooler sea surface temperatures in its wake, a testament to the size and power of the hurricane as it moved through the region.

The storm rapidly intensified into a scale-topping Category 5 on Saturday, August 16, as it began a long recurve through the western half of the basin.

Even after it weakened, Erin steadily grew into an unusually large hurricane for the region. The extent of the hurricane's tropical storm force winds stretched nearly 600 miles across as it passed offshore of North Carolina on Thursday, Aug. 21.

Strong and sizeable hurricanes like Erin churn up the ocean something fierce—evidenced by the intense waves and rip currents felt along the coats as it skirted the U.S. and Canada. 

All that churning on the surface induces upwelling of cooler water from deep within the ocean. We can see the results of upwelling in sea surface temperature anomalies. 

Here's what the western Atlantic looked like on Friday, Aug. 15, the day before Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane:

And here's what those sea surface temperature anomalies looked like by Friday, Aug. 22, after Erin more than doubled in size and recurved out to sea:

That's quite the difference!

Here's an animated look at sea surface temperature anomalies each day between Aug. 15 and Aug. 24:

Upwelling left in the wake of passing hurricanes is usually temporary, with sea surface temperatures bouncing back within a few weeks. The phenomenon can rob future storms of the ability to intensify if they happen to pass over the region. This process also plays an important role for the environment, drawing key nutrients from the depths to the surface to replenish the local environment. 

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Hurricane Erin remains a large storm and it continues expanding

Tropical storm warnings are in place for many coastal communities across North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as Hurricane Erin brushes past the region.

While the core of the storm will remain far offshore, Hurricane Erin is a very large system and it continues to grow larger as it begins its ever-hastening recurve out to sea.

Forecasters at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday found that Erin's tropical storm force winds extended 265 miles from the center of the storm, while hurricane force winds extended 90 miles from the center of the storm. 

That's unusually large by Atlantic standards—and it'll continue to grow its footprint over the next couple of days.

Erin's maximum sustained winds of 110 mph almost seem disconnected from its deep minimum central pressure of 941 mb. Hurricanes can spend their energy (so to speak) on intensity and size, with one usually coming at the expense of the other. This storm's very deep minimum pressure is translating to size rather than packing all that energy into a tight, powerful core. 

A ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to guide Erin to the north, and then northeast, over the next couple of days, allowing the storm to recurve safely out to sea.

Despite its offshore track, the storm's sheer size may allow tropical storm force winds to buffet portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines. These areas could see power outages, tree damage, as well as coastal flooding and beach erosion from storm surge and high surf.

Rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Watches issued for N.C. as powerful Hurricane Erin grows in size

Hurricane Erin remained a powerful Category 4 storm on Monday as the system puttered along east of The Bahamas. 

Tropical storm watches and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks as forecasters expect the storm to grow in size as it recurves through the middle of the week.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Erin steadily moving northwest through the beginning of the week before turning north by midweek as it starts to swing around a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.

Even though the storm's center should remain far offshore, the storm's sheer size could bring dangerous conditions ashore for North Carolina's Outer Banks late Wednesday through the day Thursday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C., while a storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. 

The system has steadily grown in size since it reached peak strength as a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. (I wrote about some of the astounding stats behind Erin's rise to scale-topping intensity over at The Weather Network, check it out!) 

Hurricane Erin will continue to expand its footprint over the next couple of days, growing into an exceptionally large storm by the beginning of the week. This growth could bring tropical storm force winds ashore across the Outer Banks, and the storm's immensity will help generate a potentially dangerous storm surge along the coast.

The NHC's forecast at 5:00 p.m. Monday called for storm surge up to 4 feet above ground level across much of the Outer Banks, with 1 to 3 feet of inundation as far south as Myrtle Beach, S.C., and as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula. 

Storm surge flooding is seawater pushed inland by the force of persistent winds. Storm surge is more likely with large storms like Hurricane Erin. Any westward deviation in the track will make coastal flooding more likely.

Rip currents and high waves are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Hurricane Erin's dangerous waves, rip currents likely to hit U.S. East Coast

Erin strengthened into a hurricane on Friday morning as the storm gradually makes its way west across the open Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters expect the storm to continue growing into a powerful Category 4 storm this weekend as it skirts north of the Lesser Antilles and starts a delicate recurve.

While the storm is unlikely to make a direct hit on the United States, dangerous waves and rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this weekend and into early next week. Rip currents are a deadly hazard to beachgoers, claiming many lives every year even under clear and sunny skies.

A reconnaissance flight through Erin this morning found that the storm strengthened into the season's first hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It's a tiny storm—hurricane force winds only extend about 25 miles from the center—but it'll gradually grow in the days ahead.

Conditions are favorable for Erin to intensify into a major hurricane, and possibly into a powerful Category 4 storm, by this weekend. While the core of the storm should miss the Leeward Islands, Erin's outer bands could still bring tropical storm conditions to islands like Barbuda and St. Martin on Saturday.

We'll likely see Erin thread the needle between Bermuda and the Carolinas next week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic weakens, providing a pathway for the storm to turn northward and begin to recurve. It's still too early to tell if the system will have any impacts on Atlantic Canada.

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Dangerous waves and rip currents will be the greatest hazards for the East Coast starting this weekend and stretching well into next week.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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